The New York Islanders and the Pittsburgh Penguins will meet for the second time in four days at PPG Paints Arena on Monday night.
The Islanders beat the Penguins 5-4 at UBS Arena on Friday, but they continue to be bitten by the injury bug, particularly at forward. Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Josh Bailey, and Mathew Barzal are all in danger of missing this one.
Is Pittsburgh primed to take advantage of New York in this Presidents’ Day tilt? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Islanders vs Penguins on Monday, February 20.
Islanders vs Penguins best odds
Islanders vs Penguins picks and predictions
When the New York Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins have gotten together of late, high-scoring games have been the norm. Five of their last six head-to-head matchups have seen at least six goals scored, and four of those saw either 8+ total goals.
This handicapper envisions plenty of chances for success on the power play in a game between two teams that play wide-open at 5-on-5, so bettors should take the Over with glee.
The Islanders have scored 20 goals in their last six games, with five of those coming on the power play. New York notched at least one goal on the man advantage in four of their last five overall. Perhaps this team has figured something out after struggling most of the year at 5-on-4, as they currently rank 26th in power play conversion rate (17.4%).
Brock Nelson – the leading points-earner on the Isles (55) – has two of those power-play tallies and recorded two goals and an assist in his team’s 5-4 victory over the Penguins last Friday.
He’ll likely be taking his shots against Casey DeSmith again, as No. 1 netminder Tristan Jarry continues to miss time. DeSmith’s overall stats are far from intimidating (3.28 GAA, .904 SV%), and his home splits are horrible. He owns a 3.89 GAA and .894 SV% through nine games at PPG Paints Arena this year.
Ilya Sorokin is the most likely option in net for New York tonight, and he’s 6-8-2 on the road this year with a 2.97 GAA and .910 SV%, contrasting sharply with his 2.08 GAA and .932 SV% at home. Sorokin could be in for a rough night behind an Islanders penalty kill that’s coughed up four goals in their last 13 chances against.
Evgeni Malkin leads Pittsburgh in power-play goals (nine) and assists (16) this year. He tends to score points in bunches, as he has 21 points in 16 games since Jan. 10 despite being held off the scoresheet eight times.
Nelson and Malkin’s player props intrigue me, but I’ll keep it simple and play the Over with my best bet.
My best bet: Over 6 (-105 at PointsBet)
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Islanders vs Penguins moneyline analysis
These teams come into this tilt tied at 63 points apiece, but the Penguins have four games in hand.
The current moneyline reflects that this game would be a coin-flip on neutral ice, but with the way the Isles are trending, that doesn’t make a lot of sense. Bettors should take the Pens at a generous price.
Not only have the Islanders dropped four of their last five games, but their forwards are also dropping like flies. Jean-Gabriel Pageau hasn’t played since Feb. 11 and is currently on injured reserve. Josh Bailey sustained an injury on Friday and is doubtful to suit up. Mathew Barzal got hurt early in Saturday’s 6-2 loss to the Bruins, and his status is up in the air.
Losing that many skill players all at once could seriously inhibit New York’s ability to keep pace in this one.
The Isles are 1-5 in their last six tries in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. They’re also 1-7 in their last eight games played on one day of rest, with an identical mark in their last eight road games.
Meanwhile, the Penguins are 38-17 in their last 55 games against teams with losing SU records.
Islanders vs Penguins Over/Under analysis
Given these teams’ tendencies to play wide-open games regardless of opponent, the listed total of 6 seems low.
The Islanders enter this one ranked fourth in the NHL in expected goals for, while Pittsburgh is 11th, but New York is also sixth-worst in expected goals against, while the Pens are ninth-worst. All of this suggests the respective netminders are in for a workout in this one.
Pittsburgh has played firewagon hockey at home this year, averaging over 35 shots both for and against. The Isles drop from 30.8 shots per game overall to 28.1 as visitors, but their goals for stay practically the same (2.9 drops to 2.86). Meanwhile, opponents are averaging almost one extra shot per contest against New York’s defense on the road.
Trend bettors should note that the Over is 4-1 in the Islanders’ last five overall, and 7-3-1 in the Penguins’ last 11 home games.
Islanders vs Penguins betting trend to know
The home team has won each of the last four meetings between these clubs. Find more NHL betting trends for Islanders vs Penguins.
Islanders vs Penguins game info
| Location: | PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Monday, February 20, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ATTSN-PT, MSGSN |
