The 2024-25 NHL season is almost here, and we’re back with a full schedule of NHL picks and in-depth betting analysis of all 82 Toronto Maple Leafs games.
The Leafs had quite the revamp over the offseason, with some rugged additions to the defensive corps, a new coaching staff, and a transfer of power in the captain's room with Auston Matthews now donning the ‘C’.
Is this the year the Maple Leafs get it done? Let’s look at some of the Toronto Maple Leafs odds for the upcoming 2024-25 season.
2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs odds and outlook
All odds courtesy of Sports Interaction, as of 10-3-2024.
- 2023-24 record: 46-26-10 (102 points)
- Key additions: Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Anthony Stolarz, Max Pacioretty.
- Key subtractions: Tyler Bertuzzi, TJ Brodie, Mark Giordano, Joel Edmundson, Ilya Samsonov.
- Stanley Cup odds: +1,500
- Eastern Conference odds: +700
- Atlantic Division odds: +270
Toronto Maple Leafs projected lineup
Forwards
- Matthew Knies - Auston Matthews - Mitch Marner
- Max Domi - William Nylander - Calle Jarnkrok
- Max Pacioretty - John Tavares - Nick Robertson
- Bobby McMann - David Kampf - Ryan Reaves
Defense
- Morgan Rielly - Chris Tanev
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Jake McCabe
- Simon Benoit - Timothy Liljegren
Goalies
- Joseph Woll
- Anthony Stolarz
Maple Leafs regular season points prediction
The Toronto Maple Leafs Over/Under total is set at 101.5 points for the upcoming 2024-25 season. Toronto has surpassed this number in three straight seasons and has topped it in five of its last eight campaigns overall. The only three years the Buds failed to reach the Over on this total were in 2016-17 — when Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander were all rookies — and the two Covid-shortened seasons.
The Leafs are expected to have a more competitive divisional race this year with Buffalo, Detroit, and Ottawa looking to make a push, but Toronto boasts a better overall lineup with strong additions to the blue line and some internal growth from the forward group and Joseph Woll.
The additions of Tanev, OEL, and Pacioretty, in particular, should give this group more stability, depth, and size throughout the lineup. These three additions should also improve the team’s penalty kill, which ranked 23rd in the league last season. That should keep pucks out of the net more often, which in turn, should lead to more wins than a season ago, when the Leafs finished with 102 points.
Prediction: Over 101.5 points (-110 at Sports Interaction)
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Maple Leafs playoff prediction
The Leafs have made the playoffs in eight straight seasons (depending on how you perceive the Covid play-in round) and are heavily favored to extend that streak, with -357 odds to make the postseason.
The magic number to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference each of the past two years was 91 points by the Washington Capitals last season, and then the Florida Panthers, who squeaked into the playoffs, claiming the second wild card spot with 92 points in 2022-23.
According to the books, the Maple Leafs have a projected total of 101.5 points, which gives them a 10-point buffer to make it as the second wild card team in the worst-case scenario. Even at this price, I’d back the buds on playing hockey again in the spring for a ninth consecutive season.
Prediction: Yes to make the playoffs (-357 at Sports Interaction)
Auston Matthews points prediction
It’s Auston Matthews’ world, and we’re just living in it.
The Over/Under for the new Maple Leafs captain is set at 102.5 points. He surpassed this total with a career year in 2023-24, tallying 107 points, including a whopping 69 goals through 81 games. However, he’s only topped that total one other time in his eight-year career. A big reason for that is his inability to stay healthy for the full 82 games, something he’s done just one other time.
Matthews already missed a few practices throughout training camp with an undisclosed upper-body injury. Let’s hope that’s not a precursor to the season ahead, but history suggests he won’t give Toronto a full, healthy season, which in turn, limits his chances to produce points.
I also wonder if Craig Berube’s new defensively-minded system will limit the Leafs’ offense overall. Under Sheldon Keefe, the Leafs averaged 3.51 goals per game over the past five seasons. Berube’s Blues averaged 3.11 goals per game, good for 12th in the NHL over his tenure in St. Louis, but ranked 23rd in shots per game.
Volume has been a big part of the Maple Leafs and Matthews’ success. I expect a bit of offensive regression from Matthews this season, and the odds suggest he won’t play in all 82 games.
Prediction: Over 102.5 points (-110 at Sports Interaction)
Popular NHL futures markets
Auston Matthews awards futures prediction
| Award | Odds |
| Hart Trophy | +1,000 |
| Rocket Richard Trophy | -125 |
| Art Ross Trophy | +2,500 |
| Frank J. Selke Trophy | +750 |
Matthews is coming off an impressive 69-goal season, which earned him a third Rocket Richard trophy. I’m not sure he sets a new career high this year, but the benchmark is probably 60 or so goals. His 368 goals (.65 goals per game) have led all NHLers since he broke into the league.
You don’t have to get cute when making a futures play on Matthews this year. The Maple Leafs captain is favored heavily (-125) to win the Rocket again this season as the league's highest goal scorer and should very well be in the mix to win it again.
Prediction: Rocket Richard Trophy (-125 at Sports Interaction)
