Islanders vs Wild Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Horvat Put Through Hell by Minny Defense

The New York Islanders will try to pick up another road win when they head to Xcel Energy Center to take on the Minnesota Wild.

The Isles blanked the Jets in Winnipeg 4-0 when last seen on Sunday, good for their fourth win in their last six overall. Minnesota has won five of its last six games, including a recent 3-2 overtime triumph against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Sunday. 

Which team will stay hot in St. Paul? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for the Islanders vs. Wild on Tuesday, February 28.

Islanders vs Wild best odds

Islanders vs Wild picks and predictions

This handicapper’s first inclination was to take the Under at 5.5 goals, but with that side of the total juiced in the -140 range at most major sportsbooks as of Tuesday morning, I considered a different approach to what I think will be a low-scoring game. 

The Islanders may have won four of their last six, but the goals have not been piling up as steadily as the wins, as New York has averaged only 3.2 goals per game in that six-game stretch. It’s hard to score if you can’t hit the net, and that’s what’s been happening for the Isles of late. Their offense has averaged only 21.7 shots on goal over its last three games.

New York’s forwards have been far from an elite unit all year, ranking 25th in goals per game (2.9), and 21st in shots per game (30.4). The continued absence of both Mathew Barzal and J.G. Pageau has not helped matters. 

One might have thought the lack of other options would open things up for midseason acquisition Bo Horvat, but that hasn’t really been the case. While it’s true he has two goals in his last four overall — including the opening tally while shorthanded on Sunday — it’s also true that he has two shots or fewer in five of his last seven tilts.

Horvat was quite busy in his first few games as an Islander, registering four or more shots in three of his first four contests with his new club. But apparently, opposing teams are already keying in on how he fits into this New York offense.

The Isles average a paltry 28.1 shots on goal in road games, while the Wild allow barely over 29 shots on goal at home. Expect Horvat’s shooting stats to suffer along with those of the rest of his teammates. 

My best bet: Bo Horvat Under 2.5 shots (-125)

Islanders vs Wild moneyline analysis

Bettors should expect a battle between two No. 1 goalies who have earned their playing time this year in Ilya Sorokin and Filip Gustavsson. The latter appears to have the edge in his own building.

Sorokin owns a brilliant 2.07 GAA and .933 SV% at home, but a much more human 2.92 GAA and .913 SV% on the road. Gustavsson has been good regardless of location, and sports a 2.16 GAA and .926 SV% in 17 games at Xcel Energy Center this season.

The Isles lack star power at forward, but Brock Nelson has been holding his own in February, scoring 14 points over 11 games. However, the Wild boast Kirill Kaprizov, who is fresh off a hat trick against the Blue Jackets. He has 10 goals to his credit this month. 

Trend bettors should note that the Islanders are 24-49 in their last 73 games against teams with winning records, and 4-10 in their last 14 road games. 

The Wild are 21-6 in their last 27 games against Metropolitan Division opponents and 13-5 in their last 18 games in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation.

Minnesota is a fair price at -135, but bettors should consider other options if the line exceeds the -140 threshold.

Islanders vs Wild Over/Under analysis

There hasn’t been a ton of action on the total yet, but bettors should not be surprised to see some 5.0 totals appear with such heavy juice on the 5.5 Under. It’s hard to endorse a total play at -140, but it’s even more difficult to make a case for the Over.

Both the Isles and Wild are in the Bottom 6 in goals per game, the Top 10 in goals allowed per game, and the Top 7 in penalty kill. There’s also a slew of trends for both sides that suggest the Under will prevail.

The Under is 9-1 in the Islanders’ last 10 games against Western Conference opponents, and 5-2 in their last seven against teams with winning records. The Wild have gone below the total in eight straight against Eastern Conference foes, and five in a row against teams with losing straight up records.

The Under is also 11-1 in Minnesota’s last 12 games in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 days situation, 24-8-2 in its last 34 overall, and 15-5-1 in its last 21 home games.

Islanders vs Wild betting trend to know

The Wild are 5-0 in their last five games played on one day of rest. Find more NHL betting trends for Islanders vs Wild.

Islanders vs Wild game info

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