Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 2 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Goalscoring Continues at Scotiabank Arena

It’s only a one-game hole, but the Toronto Maple Leafs are feeling that first-round pressure already. Yet, the NHL odds have shortened them up on the moneyline entering Game 2 as -170 home favorites vs. a now shorthanded Tampa Bay Lightning team.

The Bolts were already thin on the blue line and now are without heavy-minute defender Erik Cernak while former Norris winner Victor Hedman is also a game-time decision. It’s an edge for the Leafs, but can they take advantage with defensive issues of their own? I’m not confident in their goaltending either. 

Find out where the best bet lies in my Lightning vs. Maple Leafs NHL betting picks below.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 2 odds

Lightning vs Maple Leafs series odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of April 20, 2023.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 2 predictions

Game 1 saw 12 total power plays and a five-minute major. The Toronto Maple Leafs knocked out two Tampa Bay Lightning players from the lineup in that game and I’m sure the officials will want to keep this game from getting out of hand. That could lead to more power-play opportunities tonight which, as a whole, are up across the playoffs.

We’ve already seen 24 power-play goals in the playoffs making up 32% of all the scoring through three days of postseason hockey. With two of the Top-3 PP units in hockey featured in this game, the extra-man opportunities should aid in the Over — especially with the Bolts missing some key penalty killers.

Tampa has the better goalie in Andrei Vasilevskiy but he won’t have much help in front of him as Erik Cernak is out and Victor Hedman is very questionable and Ian Cole didn’t skate yesterday. That means Zach Bogosian and Hayden Fleury will likely draw in which helps the Leafs’ offense that's also dealing with changes.

Coach Cooper updates the media on the #Bolts injury statues.

Victor Hedman will be a game time decision.

Erik Cernak and Mikey Eyssimont will be OUT for game 2.

Tanner Jeannot is a “possibility” to join the line tomorrow night. #TBLvsTOR | #StanleyCupPlayoffs

— Kasey Hudson (@TheSportsKase) April 19, 2023

With Michael Bunting’s three-game suspension, NCAA star Matthew Knies will enter the lineup and play on the third line with Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari.

Coach Sheldon Keefe has diluted his offense slightly putting scoring talent over three lines but that could be adjusted mid-game and it will still be hard for Tampa to match up against. The Leafs’ offense has a great advantage tonight, but their issues on their own end really make this Over a confident play.

The Leafs’ blue line was horrendous in Game 1 and played scared losing 59% of puck battles in Game 1. With Ilya Samsonov’s poor performance coupled with his playoff numbers (1-7 SU, 3.45 GAA, and a .895 SV%), I can’t see Toronto shutting down the Tampa offense whose top-line dictated play as well as the Corey Perry line. 

Toronto has to be the better team tonight thanks to the injuries on the Tampa blue line but their own issues in slowing down the Tampa offense will create two-way scoring. Add in the extra power-play opportunities and this could be a very non-traditional playoff game with plenty of goals. 

My best bet: Over 6 (-120 at SIA)

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 2 moneyline analysis

The Leafs closed as -150 home favorites in Game 1 and lost comfortably 7-3, yet have gotten shorter in the odds sitting as -170 home favorites as of this morning. Toronto opened as long as -155 so the market is moving in its direction and that’s likely being driven by the injuries the Lighting are dealing with.

Defenseman Erik Cernak is out. He plays 20 minutes a game and is a big penalty killer. Former Norris winner Victor Hedman is questionable after exiting Tuesday’s game. Jon Cooper told reporters that Hedman will be a game-time decision but many are speculating he’ll sit with the Lightning up a game in the series. Additionally, Erik Cole missed practice and might not be 100%. 

It’s a bad look for an already weak blue line that will likely dress Zach Bogosian and Hayden Fleury. Mikhail Sergachev could be playing 28 minutes tonight. 

Toronto will be without the services of Michael Bunting for three games but the trade-off is decent as highly-regarded prospect Matthew Knies will draw in.

I don’t love the lineup that Sheldon Keefe had at practice — putting Knies on the third line with Ryan O’Reilly, Calle Jarnkrok on the first line, and Alex Kerfoot on the second line. It dilutes the offensive talent but it’s a fluid situation and the coach could change the lines as the game goes on.

Toronto has been a great team following a loss during the regular season with a 14-3 SU record following their last 17 losses dating back to January 1, however, they have just four of those wins coming vs. playoff teams. They’ve benefited from facing poor teams after a loss and all three losses came against playoff teams. I’m not reading too much into that angle.

Toronto should win this game and that’s why the market is moving that way, but this is also a team that has shown zero resilience and ability to play good hockey in big spots. I like goals more than I like the Leafs and I think a play on the Bolts at the +160 price alone at +160 is possible. 

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 2 Over/Under analysis

There is a lot to like in a high-scoring game tonight. Tampa is thin on defense and penalty killers while both power plays are elite. We should also see a physical game that could lead to more power-play opportunities which have been on the rise in the early part of the playoffs.

Samsonov might have been elite on home ice during the regular season but he’s made eight playoff starts and has allowed at least three goals in seven of them, losing each of those seven games. Over his last four playoff starts dating back to last season, he’s allowed 18 goals with a .861 SV%. He also didn’t get any help from his defense last game as Justin Holl and Morgan Rielly continue to be liabilities in their own end.

The 6 has started to see some money on the Over and although I doubt it gets to 6.5, this could close at -135 to the Over. Tampa’s team total sits at 2.5 and is -150 for the Over indicating even the books think the underdog is going to score tonight. 

Lightning vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know

The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs Maple Leafs.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 2 game info

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 2 injuries

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