Maple Leafs vs Devils Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Devils in the Details and Win Column

Following a 3-2 victory last week in Toronto, the New Jersey Devils are still riding an incredible heater and will be looking for a franchise-record 14th straight win tonight. The path is looking easier with the Maple Leafs’ issues on the blue line.

The Buds have lost Morgan Rielly for an extended amount of time and will head into the Wednesday meeting down their Top 3 defensemen. The books have adjusted the moneyline slightly because of the absence but at just 10-15 points, is it enough considering Rielly’s heavy usage and how the Leafs have plugged the holes?

Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Devils.

Maple Leafs vs Devils best odds

Maple Leafs vs Devils picks and predictions

The Maple Leafs are down their three best defensemen tonight as Morgan Rielly has been placed on LTIR. Rielly was the team leader in time on ice and his absence, coupled with the losses of TJ Brodie and Jake Muzzin, has turned this blue line into one of the most inexperienced in hockey.

Rielly will be replaced by rookie Mac Hollowell, who will be making his NHL debut. Hollowell is undersized (5-foot-9) and will be paired with Jordie Benn, a No. 6/7 D-man at best. This is asking a lot of Benn, who was playing decently with Rielly but has to change his approach with the small rookie.

To their credit, the Leafs have protected the net well with the early injuries on the back end. However, their consistent turnovers in the defensive end have cost them dearly. Only the Canadiens are giving the puck away more than the Leafs and with more experience in the lineup vs. one of the fastest teams in hockey, Toronto’s play in its own end could be an issue as it could struggle to exit the D-zone.

Another massive advantage for the Devils tonight is with the last change as the home team. Lindy Ruff and the Devils will be able to pick which defensive pairing they’ll want to put their best lines against. Mark Giordano — AKA the oldest skater in the league — is still a decent defenseman, but there is no way he should be relied on to play 23 minutes which will likely be the case tonight. 

The Toronto penalty kill will also have to be repaired as Rielly was seeing time on the second unit. The top power play, which has been supporting the offense of late, will also be missing its point man. 

This is as bad a spot as it gets for the Leafs facing a team that hasn't lost a game since October 24. Matt Murray has played well since returning but the Devils should be playing with the lead early and if the Leafs have to open up to score, they could risk getting beat by one of the best transition teams in hockey.

The Devils closed as +130 dogs in last week’s 3-2 win in Toronto meaning at -140 tonight, the books have adjusted roughly 70 points. That is 10 to 15 points more than usual (25 to 30 points for home ice), so the issues with the Leafs’ defense are baked in slightly, but considering the scope at which they affect Toronto, I don’t think it’s enough.

My best bet: Devils moneyline (-140 at SIA)

Maple Leafs vs Devils moneyline analysis

This New Jersey team ranks second in goals against (2.32), second in goals per game (3.82), and first in Goal percentage at 5-on-5. There are few holes in the Devils’ game, and in addition to being 16-3 on the season, they’ve also won at -140 or longer eight times over their current 13-game winning streak. 

The Devils are healthy and still aren’t being priced as high as the Bruins or Golden Knights by the books. 

Toronto, on the other hand, might still be priced too high. They have only lost once in regulation over their last 11 games, but have given away late leads and are 0-5 SU in their last five overtime games. They’re struggling to score without a power play and if the top two lines aren't contributing, then the offense is dead in the water. Missing Riellly on this offense is also going to be an issue with the man advantage. 

Considering their 5-on-5 production, the Leafs have been overachieving. With things getting infinitely more difficult tonight and having to lean on a blue line that has an AAV of $7.1 million, the Devils at -140 are at least 20 points too long for the home side. This -140 ML price indicates that these two teams would be a pick ‘em on neutral ice and considering the makeup of the current rosters, that is simply not the case. 

Maple Leafs vs Devils Over/Under analysis

The Leafs are still one of the best Under teams in all of hockey at 6-13-1 O/U but tonight’s issues on defense open up a few arguments for both sides of the total here.

The Leafs have already done a good job at limiting high-quality chances with its thin blue line. The forwards have committed to protecting their own end, which has shown in the team’s overall offensive output as they sit 21st in goals per game (2.95) and 26th in even-strength goals. With Rielly out, there will be more attention to the defensive game from the entire system from Sheldon Keefe. 

If this game is played mostly at 5-on-5, it should also favor the Under. The Leafs have scored just five even-strength goals over their last three and have struggled to produce without the man advantage all season. This is an extremely top-heavy team and it will be making things even more difficult without the last change against an elite New Jersey squad. 

The Devils also have the second-best GAA in hockey at 2.32 and pair that with the league’s eighth-best penalty kill. Vitek Vanecek has played just slightly better than expected (40th in GSAx/60), which shows the defensive system in place in New Jersey is keeping quality chances down.

The last meeting closed at 6.5 and many might want to hit the Over just because of Rielly’s absence but I’d be wary to hit that, especially at -130. 

Maple Leafs vs Devils betting trend to know

The Maple Leafs are 1-5 in their last six games playing on one day of rest. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Devils.

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