The Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders tangle at the newly opened UBS Arena at Belmont Park on Sunday night.
Both of these teams will be looking to rebound from defeats on Saturday. Oddsmakers are having a tough time separating the two squads with NHL betting lines opening with the Isles as slim +105 home underdogs.
Here are our best free Maple Leafs vs. Islanders picks and predictions for Sunday, November 21, with the puck dropping at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Maple Leafs vs Islanders odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Maple Leafs vs Islanders predictions
- Prediction: Islanders ML (+105))
- Prediction: Over 5.5 (-115)
- Best bet: Islanders Team Total Over 2.5 (-115)
Predictions made on 11/21/2021 at 2 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Maple Leafs vs Islanders game info
• Location: UBS Arena, Elmont, New York
• Date: Sunday, November 21, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: MSG+, Sportsnet Ontario
Maple Leafs vs Islanders betting preview
Injuries
Maple Leafs: Petr Mrazek G (Out), Ivan Mikheyev W (Out)
Islanders: Anthony Beauvillier LW (Out), Adam Pelech D (Out), Josh Bailey LW (Out), Ryan Pulock D (Out), Anders Lee LW (Out), Andy Greene D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Maple Leafs vs Islanders head-to-head record since 2018-19
Maple Leafs: 2-3, 10 goals for.
Islanders: 3-2, 16 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs are 2-10 in their last 12 Sunday games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Islanders.
Maple Leafs vs Islanders picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
The Maple Leafs are coming off a 2-0 shutout loss to the Penguins which snapped a five-game winning streak. They are currently second in the Atlantic Division with a point percentage of .658. Although the Buds are second in the NHL in expected goals for per 60 minutes in 5v5 hockey (2.75), they have struggled to capitalize on those scoring opportunities, ranking 28th in GF/60 (1.92).
They've been winning in large part due to goalie Jack Campbell who leads the league with a sizzling 1.66 GAA and a save percentage of .944. Unfortunately for Leafs fans, Campbell played last night and with Petr Mrazek still recovering from a groin injury that makes Joseph Woll the starter in nets tonight.
The 23-year-old made his NHL debut on November 13 against Buffalo and while he got the victory he surrendered four goals on just 27 shots. The former third-round draft pick hasn't impressed much with the Marlies either, posting a GAA north of 3.50 and a save percentage south of .890 at the AHL level.
The Islanders began their season with 13 straight games on the road as they waited for their new arena to be ready. They finally played in front of their home fans yesterday and promptly lost 5-2 to the Flames. It was a tough situation to be in with six players (including five who average more than 16 minutes per game) ruled out due to COVID-19 protocols. They did outshoot Calgary 36-29 and the Flames scored twice on an empty net so the game wasn't quite as lopsided as the final scoreline suggests.
The Isles have now lost five in a row and sit dead-last in the Metropolitan with a .429 point percentage. That said, they really seemed to wear down towards the tail-end of that brutal road stretch, and having a home ice to play on should make them look more like the squad that advanced to the Stanley Cup Semifinals last season.
New York should have the edge between the pipes with Ilya Sorokin getting the start today. The Russian has a 2.50 GAA with a .925 save percentage in 11 games this season, after posting a sizzling 2.17 GAA as a rookie last year. The Isles also score at a slightly higher rate than Toronto in 5v5 hockey averaging 2.19 GF/60.
With the Leafs struggling to find consistency on offense and rolling out a mediocre netminder between the pipes, we're leaning towards the home side on the moneyline.
Prediction: Islanders ML (+105)
Over/Under analysis
Both of these teams have strong Under trends going for them but there's reason to lean in the opposite way tonight.
Sure the Leafs are 5-1 to the Under in their last six contests but the one contest that went over the total was the one game where Woll got the start. And while the Isles are 8-3-1 to the Under in their previous 12 contests, they were a far better offensive at home than away last season (averaging 3.28 gpg at Nassau Coliseum and just 2.07 gpg on the road), and the same trend could continue now that they're back in New York.
The Islanders should be able to put a few pucks past Woll but at the same time might find it tough to stop the Leafs from generating chances. After all the Buds lead the league with 13.03 high-danger chances per 60 minutes and the Isles have three key blueliners out due to COVID or injury.
Prediction: Over 5.5 (-115)
Best bet
It's tough to trust the Islanders' offense even when they are healthy and multiple guys being out with COVID-19 is an issue, but we have even less faith in Joseph "not a brick" Woll. While we don't want to take too much away from a small sample size in his first NHL game just a week ago, his minor league career isn't too inspiring either.
In his first year with the Marlies in 2020, he posted a 3.75 GAA with a .880 save percentage in 35 games. Last season he had a 3.54 GAA in 15 games and this year he has a 3.38 GAA in three games at the AHL level.
The Maple Leafs haven't been a great team in their own end of the ice and have often needed Campbell to come up with big saves. They won't get those tonight with Woll in nets.
Pick: Islanders Team Total Over 2.5 (-115)
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