The Toronto Maple Leafs have won 11 of their last 13 and will look to keep things rolling in tonight’s potential first-round playoff meeting with the Tampa Bay Lightning, who enter tonight's game having dropped six of their last nine.
Can the Leafs keep up this red-hot run? Can the Bolts avoid a late-season skid that could potentially push them to a bottom-two spot in the East? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Lightning opened as -130 moneyline favorites but have slipped 10 points to -120. The total opened at 6.5 at some books but now sits at 7 across the board. Toronto won as +120 road favorites in an April 4 meeting with a 6-2 final score.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning predictions
- Prediction: Maple Leafs ML (+102)
- Prediction: Over 7 (+110)
- Best bet: Colton anytime goal (+350, 0.5 unit)
- Best bet: Paul anytime goal (+370, 0.5 unit)
Predictions made on 4/21/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Maple Leafs vs Lightning game info
• Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
• Date: Thursday, April 21, 2022
• Puck drop: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, TSN4
Maple Leafs vs Lightning betting preview
Key injuries
Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews F (Questionable), Jake Muzzin D (Out), Petr Mrazek G (Out), Ondrej Kase F (Out), Rasmus Sandin D (Out).
Lightning: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning head-to-head record since 2018-19
Maple Leafs: 5-5 SU, 28 goals for.
Lightning: 5-5 SU, 34 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in the Maple Leafs’ last six games as a road underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Leafs have lost just once in regulation over their last 13 games and have almost locked up the No. 2 spot in the Atlantic Division. Their wins have been impressive as well, as Sheldon Keefe’s team has knocked off the Panthers, Lightning, Bruins, Stars, and Capitals over that stretch and haven’t been at full strength, making it even more imposing.
Auston Matthews has missed the last two games with an undisclosed injury but he's traveling with the team on their current three-game road trip and it’s possible he suits up tonight. He had three goals and an assist in Toronto's 6-2 win over the Bolts in Tampa three weeks ago, so getting him in the lineup would be a huge boost and could possibly move the line 10 points.
Even without 34, the Leafs have played good-to-great hockey with Keefe getting lots of production from the Nylander-Kampf-Engvall line. Nylander has 16 points over his last 10 games and is giving the power play some life after the league’s No. 1 PP hit a dry patch. It went on a 0-for-17 stretch but has scored in back-to-back games. The Buds are also drawing more penalties of late and have had at least five power-play opportunities in four of their last six games.
The Buds are dealing with a banged-up blue line with Jake Muzzin and Rasmus Sandin both out, but the front office pulled off some great additions at the deadline with Ily Lyubushkin and Mark Giordano helping bolster this defense. Since acquiring the former Norris winner in Giordano from Seattle, the Leafs are 12-2-1 and have the league’s second-best point percentage.
This well-oiled Maple Leafs squad will face a Tampa team that is coming off a loss to the Red Wings on Tuesday as -460 favorites. The loss was the team’s sixth in nine games and now puts the Lightning in danger of finishing in seventh or eighth in the conference, as the Bruins sit just one point behind the Lightning for the No. 3 spot in the Atlantic.
John Cooper has blown his lines up due to the mediocre play of late with Nick Paul now playing with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov while Ross Colton is now alongside Steven Stamkos and Ondrej Palat. The Bolts are working some things out ahead of the postseason and they aren't coming into this matchup in great form.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has a 3.01 GAA with a .901 SV% over his last 11 starts and the really worrying part for the Bolts is he’s just 3-7 SU in those games. Brain Elliot, on the other hand, is a perfect 4-0 SU over the last 30 days. Cooper needs to get his No. 1 goalie going but one might think his extensive workload over the last three seasons could be catching up with the Russian netminder.
Toronto closed as a +120 road favorite when these two teams met in Tampa just three weeks ago. Toronto dominated that game with a 6-2 victory with Jack Campbell stopping 32 of 34 shots. Toronto managed to score all six goals at 5-on-5 and even though today’s ML price is off by nearly 20 points from that meeting, we can’t say no to the Leafs who enter tonight in much better form. Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last five games at -120 or shorter on the ML.
Prediction: Maple Leafs moneyline (+102 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
The Leafs have pushed the closing total in back-to-back games but that shouldn’t deter bettors from giving the Over 7 a good hard look today.
Toronto is 9-1-3 to the Over in its last 13 games. Over that stretch, the Buds are scoring a league-best 5.08 goals per game while also giving up 3.23 per contest. No team is seeing more total goals per game over the last 30 days than Toronto’s 8.31.
Even without Matthews, the Leafs scored a total of nine goals in the two games without the center. Nylander has picked up the slack while the power play has come to life. Matthews had a massive game in the last meeting (3G, 1A) and if he does suit up, this 7 might tick up in price.
The Bolts haven’t been their stingy selves of late and Vasilevskiy has fallen off the tracks. The No. 1 goalie has allowed at least three goals in four of his last six, has a 3.01 GAA over his last 11 starts, gave up all six goals in the last meeting, and is 5-2 to the Over in his last seven starts. Tampa is seeing 6.40 total goals per game over its last 10.
The Bolts don’t often see totals of 7 but they are 4-1 to the Over on 6.5-goal totals of late and 7-4 to the Over on totals of 6.5 since the beginning of February. The Leafs are 3-2-4 to the Over on totals of 7 this season.
The last meeting saw eight total goals — all scored at even strength. We could get some power-play help tonight, though, as both clubs feature elite talent on their PP1s and both clubs come into tonight having scored on the power play in the previous two games.
The Leafs are simplifying things without Matthews with the man advantage which has resulted in power-play goals in back-to-back games (both without Matthews), while the Bolts are 2-for-5 over their last two games on the PP.
The last meeting saw a total of 83 total shots and the Leafs have been peppering opposing goalies of late with an average of 35 shots per game over the last 30 days. The Leafs have also juggled their lines and the chemistry could be building and on showcase tonight.
We like this Over even if Matthews doesn’t play as the Leafs have proven they can score without him. If he does suit up, the market will likely heat up on this Over 7 as Vasilevskiy has not been at his best and the Lightning are struggling to pick up wins of late.
When Vasilevskiy is cold, Tampa is a great team to target for the Over and we’re expecting two-way scoring tonight at Amalie Arena.
Prediction: Over 7 (+110 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Although we're on the Leafs' ML, we think there is a ton of value in a pair of Tampa forwards to find the back of the net.
Ross Colton has been promoted to a line with Steven Stamkos and Ondrej Palat. He has five goals in the seven games since playing on a line with Stamkos but books haven’t adjusted his price. He’s shooting a lot of late with 12 shots over his last three games and is also getting PP2 time. He should not be the 22nd guy on the board tonight to score and is worth half a unit at +350.
Looking at the other top line in Tampa, Nick Paul is riding shotgun with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov which isn’t a bad place to be. Although he hasn’t been scoring at the same rate as Colton, Paul is in a very advantageous position to cash his +370 anytime goal prop. Paul scored two games ago and has at least two shots in three straight. The new line is building chemistry and Paul at +370 to score is worth a half unit for us.
Pick: Ross Colton anytime goal (+350, 0.5 unit)
Pick: Nick Paul anytime goals (+370, 0.5 unit)
