It’s time to restore the rivalry, folks! The Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs meet for the first time this season since Toronto sent Tampa packing in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Both squads have gotten off to slow starts to the year, but fireworks always go off when these two teams play.
The NHL odds suggest it could be another high-scoring affair, and I think goaltending will play a big role in the outcome. Find out how in my free NHL picks for this October 21 matchup.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds
Maple Leafs vs Lightning predictions
The Tampa Bay Lightning enter tonight’s matchup getting back on a winning note after securing a 4-3 win over Vancouver on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Toronto Maple Leafs look to end a two-game losing streak where the offense has dried up drastically.
Perhaps a Tampa-Toronto battle is exactly what these two clubs need to get their seasons on track.
Toronto averages 3.5 goals per game over the last 20 regular and postseason meetings combined vs. Tampa, and that’s with Andrei Vasilevskiy in net. Enter Jonas Johansson — who’s got a .894 SV% and a GAA north of 3.5 — and you’ll see that the Leafs have a clear advantage tonight with an opportunity for their offense to have a bounce-back performance.
Vasilevskiy had 25.1 goals saved above expected last season, which masked a lot of the defensive deficiencies in Tampa’s game. Without Vezina-level goaltending, the Bolts went from allowing the eight fewest goals per game to the fourth most this season, giving up an average of four per contest.
Tampa can’t even blame subpar goaltending for that either, considering its expected goals against total matches that ranking (fourth worst). That’s poor defense coupled with bad goaltending... not a good combination.
However, this could be good news for a Leafs squad that has been limited offensively in their last two games. Toronto scored just once in back-to-back outings after netting 12 in its first two games. Despite the lack of goals, however, the Leafs created more and higher-quality scoring chances than their opponents. According to Natural Stat Trick, Toronto scored 5.76 goals BELOW expected in those contests.
The law of averages would suggest that things will start to swing the Buds' way, and this is a great matchup for that to happen.
Additionally, the Leafs have gone Over the team total of 3.5 goals in three of their last four trips to Amalie Arena, with five players averaging a point or more in those contests. So home-ice advantage hasn’t played a role between these two teams. In fact, the road side has won four straight.
My best bet: Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5 (-120 at SIA)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning same-game parlay
Leafs TT Over 3.5
Matthews anytime goalscorer
Nylander anytime goalscorer
These two teams do tend to bring the best out of one another, which is why the books see this as a high-scoring game. I just think the Leafs are more equipped to score and score often.
It’s been two games since Auston Matthews lit the lamp, meaning an anytime goal from AM34 could be in play here. He was so dominant against the Lightning last spring — scoring five goals in the six-game series — four of which were scored on the road. I think he'll carry that momentum into tonight and get back into the goal column.
For the final part of my parlay, I'm banking on a goal from William Nylander. Along with Matthews, he’s been off to a great start offensively and has looked downright dominant in all four games for the Leafs thus far. He’s scored five goals in his last six regular-season meetings against Tampa. If the Leafs are netting 4+ goals tonight, look for Nylander to get one of them.
Plus, the Leafs are 2-0 this season when this parlay hits and 0-2 when it doesn’t. So it’s a good recipe for success for them.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Welcome to Sports Interaction 2.0
Looking to bet on some NHL action? Join Sports Interaction, the best in Canada for new bettors, with a brand-new platform featuring same-game parlays, increased prop markets, and more!
Maple Leafs vs Lightning moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Toronto opened up as -130 favorites with the line since moving to -135, leaving Tampa as a +115 home dog. This matchup is always a coin flip when Vasilevskiy is in goal, but with him on the mend, the advantage should shift to the Leafs, who’ve won four straight in Tampa.
The books are expecting another busy night for the goal light operators, with the total opening up at seven goals. The Over is paying even money at +100, with the under getting -120 odds. The Over is 14-5 in the last 19 games played between these two teams and 4-1 overall in the last five lighting games at Amalie Arena. At even money, an Over bet might be in the cards with both teams struggling to keep pucks out of their nets.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning betting trend to know
The Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Tampa between these two squads. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.
Kentucky: Mobile sports betting is live!
Check out the best Kentucky sportsbook promos, with a number of odds boosts and offers available!
Kentucky sports betting launched online wagering on September 28 — review our list of the best Kentucky sports betting apps for making your first online bets in the Bluegrass State!
21+ and present in KY. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Maple Leafs vs Lightning game info
| Location: | Amalie Arena, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, October 21, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Sun |
Maple Leafs vs Lightning latest injuries
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
