It’s win-or-go-home time for the Toronto Maple Leafs, who enter tonight’s elimination game vs. the Florida Panthers having zero regulation wins over their last seven games while needing to lean on backup goalie Joseph Woll.
The home side is shortening up, as the Leafs have historically struggled to prove their doubters wrong in the Stanley Cup playoffs. With such a mountain to climb to win four straight games when the offense hasn’t potted more than two goals in five straight games, do the Buds have enough motivation to extend the series?
Find out where my best bets lie in our NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Game 4 on Wednesday, May 10.
Maple Leafs vs Panthers Game 4 odds
Maple Leafs vs Panthers series odds
| Team | To win | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Leafs | +700 | N/A | N/A | N/A | +700 |
| Panthers | -1,200 | +105 | +330 | +475 | +1,200 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 10.
Maple Leafs vs Panthers Game 4 predictions
Despite taking the first three games of the series, the Panthers have yet to total more than 29 shots in any contest. Of the remaining eight playoff teams, the Maple Leafs have allowed the third-fewest shot attempts/60 and just 28.19 shots on goal per game. With this being an elimination game, and Florida projected for a similar amount of shots, betting on Conn Smythe odds frontrunner Matthew Tkachuk’s Under 3.5 shots is my favorite bet tonight at FLA Live Arena.
Tkachuk was profitable to the Over on his shot prop during the regular season, finishing with four or more shots in 42 of his 79 games, but with playoff hockey comes different roles.
The gritty forward currently sits ninth on the team in shot attempts/60 in the playoffs, and is recording four fewer shots/60 in the postseason. His minutes are down slightly in the series, and the power-play opportunities aren't as plentiful.
Florida has also been relying heavily on all three lines, as the Sam Reinhart-anchored third line has become a very important part of the team’s success. Linemate Sam Bennett has also become the de facto shooter on the line,which has been cutting into Tkachuk’s shot share that sits at under 10% in the playoffs. The Panthers would need to flirt with 35 to 40 shots on net for the forward to eclipse the Over 3.5 SOG at that rate.
With less ice time, fewer high-quality offensive minutes, and the importance of protecting a lead in the playoffs, Tkachuk’s regular season shot volume is not translating to the playoffs. That gives his Under 3.5 SOG plenty of value in a game that I project to be very tight.
I have him projected at 2.90 shots over 20:30 of ice time, with the -122 price implying roughly 3.52 shots on goal.
My best bet: Tkachuk Under 3.5 SOG (-122 at SIA)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Bet with one of Canada’s best
Looking to bet on some Leafs action? Join Sports Interaction, the best in Canada for new bettors.
Maple Leafs vs Panthers Game 4 moneyline analysis
The Leafs saw some late steam in each of the first three games in the series, closing at -174 at home in Game 1 (opened at -152), -195 in Game 2 (opened at -180), and -154 on the road in Game 3 (opened at -124). Late bettors might not get the best price on the Panthers today, as Pinnacle has started to move this game to a pick ‘em after opening Toronto at -125.
The Leafs will be starting backup goalie Joseph Woll, which is a slight concern for Toronto backers, as the young goalie will be making his first playoff start. Even if the young netminder can settle in with all the pressure, he'll be supported by an offense that hasn’t produced much despite decent expected metrics.
Even with a great matchup vs. a Florida team that has the worst expected goals against/60 in the playoffs, Toronto has managed just two goals in each of the series' first three games.
It’s a story as old as time, as the Leafs have become a shell of their regular-season offensive selves, and somehow have just one win in regulation through nine playoff games. The core four have yet to show up, and the Panthers’ Top 3 lines have played more physically and have given the Toronto defenders a hard time, which has helped run the Panthers' win streak to six straight games.
The Leafs will be going with seven defensemen again tonight, as Sheldon Keefe continues to mix up the lines with no success.
Bettors should absolutely respect the Pinnacle movement to a pick ‘em tonight. I’m entirely off this side and have the Panthers as a slight favorite.
Maple Leafs vs Panthers Game 4 Over/Under analysis
This series has seen an average of 6.7 expected goals/60 but the Under has cashed in each of the three games. Now with the Leafs turning to their No. 3 goalie, bettors are surprisingly getting the best price yet for the Over 6.5.
In Game 1, the Over 6.5 closed at -130. In Game 2 that total closed at 7 at Pinnacle, and on Sunday, it closed at 7 as well. We could see a tighter output on the ice from both sides, but considering the Leafs didn’t even get a power-play opportunity in Game 3 and only two PP goals have been scored in the series, there is plenty of room for more high-quality scoring opportunities tonight.
Florida comes in with the worst expected goals/60 of the playoffs, and although there has been a lot of talk about Sergei Bobrovsky playing well in net for Florida, Toronto has just been unlucky. They have, by far, the worst shooting percentage of the second round at 6.19% (all strengths), where the next-worst team is 4.5 points better than the Buds.
Toronto is still generating the most high-danger chances/60 of the remaining eight playoff teams, and if it can snap some bad shooting luck, bettors could see some two-way scoring as the Florida offense has a good matchup vs. a rookie goaltender.
Woll finished with the best GSAx/60 of the Toronto goalies in the regular season, but an elimination game is a different beast. If he gives up a weak goal or two, this game could open up, as the Leafs would have to push the offense and open themselves up to the counter.
With the Leafs’ puck luck, Bobrovsky playing above expected, and getting the best Over price of the series, I’d suggest getting on this Over 6.5 at -130 or better. Bettors also have the elimination angle, as Toronto could untraditionally pull its goalie down three goals with lots of time left in the third period if it finds itself trailing late.
Maple Leafs vs Panthers betting trend to know
The Panthers are 6-0 in their last six overall. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Panthers.
Maple Leafs vs Panthers Game 4 game info
| Location: | FLA Live Arena, Sunrise, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, May 10, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC, ESPN |
Maple Leafs vs Panthers Game 4 injuries
