The Edmonton Oilers picked up their first playoff win in eight attempts Wednesday with a convincing 6-0 win over the Los Angeles Kings to even their Round 1 series at one game apiece.
Can Mike Smith string together some solid starts and help his team in California despite Edmonton being the third-worst road team by points percentage in the playoffs? Now with the last change, can the Kings get the matchups they want and slow down Edmonton's top lines? Find out in free NHL picks and predictions for Oilers vs. Kings.
Oilers vs Kings odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Oilers opened as -140 road favorites but have generated some interest in the market and have since moved to -145 with a total of 6.5 that's trending to the Under. Edmonton closed as -190 favorites in Game 1 (total of 6) and at -200 in Game 2 (total of 6.5). Home ice is generally worth 20 points on each side so it wouldn’t surprise us if this game closed at Edmonton -150 or -155.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Oilers vs Kings predictions
Predictions made on 5/6/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Oilers to win + Connor McDavid to score a goal BOOSTED to +235 (was +200) at PointsBet! Claim Now
B) Oilers and Kings both to score in the first period BOOSTED to +136 at BetRivers! Claim Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Oilers vs Kings game info
• Location: Crpyto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Friday, May 6, 2022
• Puck drop: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS, Sportsnet
Oilers vs Kings series odds (series tied 1-1)
Oilers: -220
Kings: +180
Oilers vs Kings betting preview
Key injuries
Oilers: None.
Kings: Viktor Arvidsson F (Questionable), Drew Doughty D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Oilers vs Kings head-to-head record since 2018-19
Oilers: 8-4 SU, 43 goals for.
Kings: 4-8 SU, 37 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Oilers are 7-1 SU in their last eight games after scoring five goals or more in their previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Kings.
Oilers vs Kings picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
We were high on the Kings in Game 2 at +170 but Edmonton took advantage of more power plays and netted another pair of extra-strength markers while Mike Smith turned back the clock and stopped all 30 shots he saw. Smith was a much different goalie on Wednesday than in Game 1, where his late blunders may have cost his team a victory.
Now, the series turns to LA and Crypto.com Arena, where the Kings went 21-20 SU on the season, which finished as the second-worst home record of the 16 playoff teams. Edmonton won both meetings in California this season by a combined score of 8 to 4
After losing in Game 1, 4-3, while winning the expected goal battle, the market was still hot for the Oilers, who moved from an opening price of -190 to -210 for the series' second game. Tonight’s -145 price equals roughly a -185 home-ice price, which means the Oilers could be a little long at -145
The Kings still might have the best defensive center one-two punch with Phillip Danault and Anze Kopitar, but if the Kings keep giving this hot Edmonton power play chances, the 5-on-5 play might not be the deciding factor. Hockey consultant and former NHL analyst/AHL coach Jack Han goes into great detail about how prolific this Edmonton power play really is.
The Kings have killed just four of the eight Edmonton power plays to open the series and also conceded a shorthanded goal in Game 2. The Kings, on the other hand, are an imperfect 0-for-8 with the man advantage. The Oilers had the league’s third-best PP on the season, while the Kings finished 27th in the league and No. 22 on the penalty kill. Edmonton has a big advantage in the PP department and with a seeming increase in penalties called in the playoffs, it’s hard to ignore the huge advantage for the Oil.
In this year's playoffs (thru yesterday, 24 games), the rate of penalties taken/drawn was 5.41 per 60 per team.
— EvolvingWild (@EvolvingWild) May 6, 2022
Last year's playoffs was 3.33 and this year's regular season was 3.27.
To get a ~similar environment you have to go back to the 07-08 playoffs which was 5.24 per 60. https://t.co/YGHe8cJoAV
The Kings played a better 5-on-5 game in Game 1 but Smith also contributed to the 4-3 win. We weren’t expecting that Smith would hold the fort in Game 2, but he did, and the veteran goalie shouldn’t be bothered by a little noise on the road. Smith boasted better numbers on the road this season despite posting a losing record.
Coming off a shutout, it’s tough to get excited for this LA offense that finished with the 13th-worst goals-per-game mark and the sixth-fewest goals at even strength. Basically, the Kings need Smith to have an off night to hit the three- or four-goal mark and with them having the second-worst PK in the playoffs (22nd in the league), the Edmonton power-play advantage is too strong. Getting this price at a 15-point discount is nice, too.
Prediction: Edmonton ML (-141 at Coolbet)
Over/Under analysis
Over the two games of the series, 12 total goals have been scored, versus 13.74 expected goals. The books overreacted slightly after Game 1 and opened the total at 6.5 after opening Game 1 at 6. Tonight, they’re still sticking with their 6.5 total and the market is starting to hit the Under again.
It’s tough to hit an Over 6.5 in the playoffs with one of the best Under teams in hockey (the Kings), especially when the 5-on-5 play has produced just over six expected goals through two games.
On the season, the Kings saw an average of 5.66 total goals scored per home game, which ranks as one of the lowest marks in hockey. Todd McLellan will want to shut down Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and having the last change will help. L.A. will also want to play a more disciplined game, as giving the Oilers the man advantage has burned them through two games. They'll want to keep this a low-scoring affair.
The Oilers were one of the most profitable teams to the Under on the road this season with a 17-22-2 O/U mark, which was in sharp contrast to their 26-15 O/U mark at home. The Kings were also profitable to the Under at home with a 17-22-2 O/U mark on the season.
Smith could certainly revert back to his Game 1-self, which is the biggest worry on this Under with the 40-year-old netminder. However, this is still a goalie who went 9-0 SU since April 1 with a 1.66 GAA and a .951 SV% leading up to the playoffs. He’s allowed two or fewer goals in eight of his last 10 starts.
Jonathan Quick has also looked impressive at times in this series despite giving up nine goals in two games. The American goalie posted a 2.19 GAA over his last nine starts at home with a 3-5-1 O/U mark which includes games versus the Avalanche and Panthers.
The major adjustment the Kings will have to make is penalty killing after allowing four PP goals in Edmonton. This is certainly in the favor of the Under backers, especially with the books stubbornly staying on the 6.5 total after closing Game 1 at 6.
Prediction: Under 6.5 (-122 at FanDuel)
Best bet
The Kings finished the season with the league's No. 22 penalty kill and it has hurt the club through two games as the Oilers are 4-for-8 with the man advantage heading into Game 3. It’s not like the Kings have taken a ton of penalties, it’s just that McDavid, Draisaitl and the league’s No. 3 power play is punishing Quick and the Kings.
Through two games, the Oilers are sporting the best power play in the playoffs and with the number of penalties called so far in the playoffs, it’s hard not to think the Oilers will get their share of PP time again tonight.
KANE GOIN TOP SHELF????
— Coolbet Canada ???????? (@CoolbetCanada) May 5, 2022
Evander gets his 2nd of the game, this one on the powerplay!#LetsGoOilers lead 6-0!
Kane Total Goals Over 1.5 (+860) ?????
Powerplay Goals Over 1.5 (+130) ?????https://t.co/hjPY7MgAMb#StanleyCup #NHL
pic.twitter.com/QNsAofRCGF
So where is the value in the Edmonton PP props? Coach Jay Woodcroft has split up the PP time evenly with his two power-play groups and each unit has scored in each of the opening games. Evander Kane played on the second unit last game but also had the most power-play time of all Edmonton skaters. He finished with two goals, one on the power play, and an assist in Game 2 and looks ready to stack points. He is the trigger man on the second unit and has sometimes come onto the McDavid unit.
At +460 to grab a PP point, we’re sprinkling here in a great matchup versus a bad penalty kill. Kailer Yamamoto at +470 is also a great price for a skater who plays on the PP1 with McDavid and Draisaitl.
Pick: Evander Kane Over 0.5 power play points (+460)
