The Edmonton Oilers are struggling to find victories over the last seven weeks and things won’t get any easier Thursday night as they welcome the Florida Panthers to Rogers Place.
The Panthers' offense was held in check Tuesday versus the Flames, but can the Oilers, who are 2-12 SU in their last 14, keep one of the league’s best offenses in check with its mediocre goaltending?
Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Panthers vs. Oilers on January 20.
Panthers vs Oilers odds
Florida opened as -155 road favorites on the moneyline and has moved slightly to -150. The total sits at 6.5 and has hit 7 at some books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Panthers vs Oilers predictions
- Prediction: Panthers 3-way ML (-105)
- Prediction: Over 7 (+110)
- Best bet: Panthers first period ML (-135)
Predictions made on 1/20/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Panthers vs Oilers game info
• Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
• Date: Thursday, January 20, 2022
• Puck drop: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: SN, BSFL
Panthers vs Oilers betting preview
Injuries
Panthers: Gustav Forsling D (Out), Patric Hornqvist F (Out).
Oilers: Stuart Skinner G (Out), Brendan Perlini F (Questionable), Mike Smith G (Out), Kris Russell D (Questionable), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins F (Questionable), Kyle Turris F (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Panthers vs Oilers head-to-head record (since 2018)
Panthers: 3-3 SU, 24 goals for.
Oilers: 3-3 SU, 20 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Oilers are 0-5 SU in their last five vs. the Eastern Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs. Oilers.
Panthers vs Oilers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
With the losses stacking up, poor play in net, and the media taking its shots at the players, the Oilers enter Thursday’s game vs. the Panthers in a very uncomfortable environment. The Oilers opened the season up with so much promise with an 11-3 SU start, but have gone 7-17 SU since.
As much as we want to criticize this team defensively and in net — 3.57 GAA since November 15 — the offense hasn’t been doing its part either. Over their last 24 games, Edmonton is scoring 2.71 goals per game, which is just ahead of the Seattle Kraken. Leon Draisaitl has seen his scoring lead slip while Connor McDavid is not the hands-down choice for the league MVP. Things are bad in Edmonton right now and it’s not just one aspect of their game.
Playing sporadically isn't likely helping the Oilers either, as they will be five days off since their last game and will be playing just their second contest since January 5. They’re still dealing with COVID and it’s unsure if key players like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Kris Russell will suit up. Add in the fact that the East’s best team is in town and is coming off a loss to the Flames, this is a Category 4 storm for Edmonton, who has never shown much perseverance in the McDavid era.
The Panthers ran into another struggling team in Calgary on Tuesday, but Darryl Sutter got his team ready for that matchup and Jakob Markstrom held one of the league’s best offenses to just one goal. Calgary also got to face Florida backup Spencer Knight in net, meaning Edmonton will more than likely see Sergei Bobrovsky, who has won seven of his last eight starts.
Projected starter Mikko Koskinen will likely get the nod for the Oilers. Koskinen has been getting heavy criticism in the media for his play this year but has been asked to do too much with Mike Smith out. The big Finn is a league backup who Dave Tippett is treating like a No. 1. It’s no surprise the Oilers’ netminder has faded at the midpoint of the season, as he’s lost six straight starts and has allowed 24 goals in that stretch. He’s also been unhappy with the goal support and has publicly commented about it in the media. The Oilers have the league’s worst save percentage since December 3.
“It’s not nice being thrown under the bus. I have to be better, but at the same time we scored seven goals in my last six losses. I can’t score goals.”
— TSN Hockey (@TSNHockey) January 5, 2022
Oilers goaltender Mikko Koskinen on criticism from head coach Dave Tippett and the media: https://t.co/quOA9VnoNl#TSNHockey pic.twitter.com/40JEAJNCGa
Florida had won eight of their last nine games before the loss to the Flames and although their splits heavily favor them at home (Florida is 5-15 SU on the road this season), this is still a bad spot for the Oilers, who don’t have the quality goaltending to bail them out of this losing spiral.
Although our empathy is building for the Oilers, it’s not swaying us away from making the smart play Thursday night, which is Florida to win in regulation. Bobrovsky has been solid and we could be a few more losses away from some serious personnel changes within the Oilers’ organization. This is more of a lean, however, as the Panthers are 2-10 SU on the road over their last nine.
Prediction: Panthers 3-way ML (-105)
Over/Under analysis
Thursday’s matchup will be a very heavily public-bet game to the Over. It opened at 6.5 and will likely close at 7, which isn’t surprising as both of these clubs have seen a closing total of 7 in the last week — both hit the Over.
The Oilers are coming off a 6-4 loss to the Senators, which was their first game after a 10-day break. Tonight will be their first game in five days and they’ll face a much better offensive team than Ottawa, who managed six goals on 25 shots and scored twice on the power play.
The Panthers rank first in 5-on-5 goals for, first in xgoals and are scoring over 4.00 goals per game, which is impressive considering their power play is league-average. Since Christmas, this is the best offense in hockey at 5.50 goals per game and was held to under four goals for the first time in 10 games Tuesday in its 5-1 loss to Calgary. This Florida offense will likely face a goaltender who has a 3.44 GAA over his last nine starts.
Edmonton sits in the Bottom 10 in even-strength goals allowed, per Money Puck, and owns a Bottom-15 penalty kill. If Tippett’s team doesn’t come out with a chip on its shoulder tonight, Florida could be running this up, and that’s why we’re likely headed to a closing total of 7.
The biggest question for this Over is whether or not the Oilers’ offense can wake up. Playing sporadically over the last six weeks has not helped this team, but Edmonton is still scoring 3.00 goals per game since December 12 and we’d expect McDavid and Draissaitl to come out strong with all the negative media attention they have received of late. Florida still allows 3.20 goals per game on the road which is a Bottom-15 mark in hockey. Edmonton will have chances and will also get to face the league’s third-worst road penalty kill as Florida has a PK success rate below 80 percent.
Anything under four goals allowed for Koskinen will be considered a decent game, and with the Oilers’ offense under the microscope, we’re expecting its big boys to take over. We whiffed on the Florida Over in Calgary but don’t see the same issues here as two-way scoring is highly probable. Both clubs have also recently shown that they can hit the Over on the lofty total of 7.
Prediction: Over 7 (+110)
Best bet
The Oilers have been one of the slowest-starting teams in the league. They’ve conceded the first goal in 22 of their last 26 matches while their opponent tonight has scored first in eight of its 10 games since the restart. Florida scores first often and wins at nearly 80% when they do.
No team in hockey has scored the first goal fewer times than the Oilers, who have scored the game’s first goal just 10 times over 35 matches this season. Koskinen is in rough form and the Florida offense still managed 4.72 expected goals in their 5-1 loss to the Flames.
Betting the first team to score isn’t a widely available prop market, but this matchup does correlate well with the Panthers to win the first period, which is paying -135. A first-period tie would mean this bet pushes, but it will be hard for the Oilers to keep the Panthers off the scoresheet in the early parts of this game, especially since they haven't played once since January 5.
Pick: Panthers first period ML (-135)
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