The highly anticipated Stanley Cup playoffs begin Saturday. The Winnipeg Jets host the St. Louis Blues in the first game, while the nightcap features the Dallas Stars hosting the Colorado Avalanche.
Below, I break down each game in my parlay picks and predictions for Saturday’s NHL slate.
Today's best NHL Playoffs parlay: April 19
Jets moneyline
St. Louis Blues vs. Winnipeg Jets Under 6.5
Avalanche moneyline
Pick #1: Jets moneyline
The biggest reason to back the Winnipeg Jets is goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. After one of the best seasons by a netminder in the modern era, Hellebuyck could win this season’s Hart Trophy, which would make him the first goaltender to do so since Carey Price in 2014-15.
Through 63 appearances, Hellebuyck posted a 47-12-3 record with a .925 save percentage and 2.00 goals-against average. Meanwhile, goaltender Jordan Binnington is slated to start for the St. Louis Blues.
While Binnington is also a strong netminder, he trails Hellebuyck in all three categories. Not only does Winnipeg possess the goaltending edge, but it is also the stronger all-around team.
Over the final two months of the season, the Jets ranked 13th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), while St. Louis ranked 29th during the same stretch.
The gap in offensive performance between these teams is much larger than the gap in defensive performance, which is why Winnipeg also ranks higher in expected goals for percentage (xGF%).
Finally, trends favor the Jets. Winnipeg has won 12 of the past 14 meetings between these teams.
Pick #2: St. Louis Blues vs. Winnipeg Jets Under 6.5
Sticking with the same game, we’re also taking the alternate under of 6.5. There are plenty of reasons to like this number.
First, the goaltending is elite on both sides. As mentioned above, Hellebuyck is the runaway favorite for the Vezina Trophy and could even win the Hart Trophy.
There have been six or fewer total goals scored in eight of his past nine starts. That success is likely to continue against St. Louis, a team he is 11-2-1 against over the past 14 meetings with a .927 save percentage and 1.99 goals-against average.
Meanwhile, Binnington should be able to hold his own. He allowed one or fewer goals in five of his final eight starts of the regular season and posted a .924 save percentage and 1.98 goals-against average during that stretch.
Another reason to back the under is that both teams have been stronger defensively than offensively. Over the past two months, both clubs rank higher in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) than in xGF/60.
Considering these variables, it’s not surprising that there have been six or fewer total goals scored in seven of the past nine meetings between these teams.
Pick #3: Avalanche moneyline
On paper, Saturday’s nightcap between the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars should be a more competitive affair. Although Dallas finished as the higher seed, there’s a reason Colorado is favored on the road in Game 1.
Despite the difference in seeding, the Avalanche have been the stronger team over the final two months of the regular season. Over that stretch, Colorado outranked Dallas in xGF/60, xGA/60 and xGF%.
Not only are the Avs the better all-around team, but they also hold the goaltending edge with Mackenzie Blackwood. He finished the regular season with a .912 save percentage and 2.45 goals-against average, outperforming Dallas netminder Jake Oettinger in both categories.
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