Penguins vs Capitals Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Ovi Looks to Take Advantage of Porous Pittsburgh D

Bettors will get another beauty matchup between longtime rivals Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin as the Pittsburgh Penguins meet the Washington Capitals in DC on Wednesday night. 

Despite the Pens riding a seven-game losing skid, the Caps come in as the dogs on home ice. With the offense getting over the hump with a five-goal outing on Monday, will the Great 8 continue his historic goal-scoring tonight vs. a familiar foe at plus odds?

Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Penguins vs. Capitals.

Penguins vs Capitals best odds

Penguins vs Capitals picks and predictions

Heading into their Monday matchup with the Oilers, the Capitals had scored just 10 goals in their previous six games. Even with the lack of goals, Alex Ovechkin still managed to tuck four of those 10. He also added another on Monday and has scored in three straight and in five of six. With the Caps entering the game as an underdog but facing a porous Pittsburgh team, bettors are getting a very good plus-money price on Ovechkin’s anytime goal prop at +110.

The Penguins sit in the Bottom 7 in shots against per game (34.8), goals against (3.67), and penalty kill (73.2%). They’ve dropped seven straight games and have allowed 33 goals over that stretch, losing to some bottom-feeders like the Kraken (twice) and Canucks. It’s a rough stretch of hockey for the Pens, and Ovechkin and the Capitals will take advantage of it tonight. 

The Penguins have an expected goals against differential of just +0.33, which proves the poor GAA is well deserved. Their defense consists of a possibly injured Kris Letang and a bottom pairing of Brian Dumoulin and Jan Rutta that has some of the team’s worst Corsi/Fenwick and xGoal% numbers.

Ovechkin will also get plenty of cracks in his office with the man advantage as the Caps erupted for four power-play goals on Monday and face the league’s 27th-ranked penalty kill.

With Evgeny Kuznetsov getting some confidence back after a four-point night on Monday, Ovechkin is in great hands tonight with a plus matchup and getting solid odds thanks to being priced as an underdog. He’s scored 33% of his team’s goals over the last seven games and has a better than 50% chance to score tonight.  

My best bet: Alex Ovechkin anytime goal (+110 at DraftKings)

Penguins vs Capitals moneyline analysis

The Penguins haven’t won a game since October 22 — a stretch of seven straight games. Over that time, the Pens have been outscored 33-16. The losses have come in a variety of ways as they’ve scored two or fewer in four of those games and three or more in the remaining three. Even when the offense shows up, the defense and goaltending have fallen flat and have been unable to bail them out. 

Now the Pens will face an underachieving Washington team that just ended a four-game skid of its own with a 5-4 win over the Oilers on Monday. Washington needed four goals with the man advantage to pull it off, but the big guns for the Caps showed up and stuffed the boxscore. 

There is no huge advantage for the Penguins here as they sit in the Bottom 7 in most defensive and goals-against metrics, including shots against, goals against, and penalty-killing success. 

Pittsburgh starting goalie Tristan Jarry has allowed 21 goals in his last five starts (1-4 SU) and looks to be fighting the puck of late with a 0.874 save percentage (SV%) over that stretch. Jarry sits in the Jack Campbell section in goals saved above expected/60 (GSAx/60) on the season, which isn’t flattering.

This -130 Pittsburgh moneyline is telling us that the Pens would be roughly a -180 home favorite in the same matchup as home ice is worth 25-30 points on each side. That seems awfully short to me as neither team has a big advantage anywhere on the roster. I have the Pens as a slight favorite on neutral ice, which would make the Caps the betting favorite at home.

The Caps are not a great team — and missing Dmitry Orlov doesn’t help on the back end — but this is a Pittsburgh team that's old, shallow in scoring, weak on the blue line, and getting bad goaltending. The Pens aren’t seeing any of my shekels tonight. 

Penguins vs Capitals Over/Under analysis

The Caps were on a run of six straight Unders as the offense went dormant but a five-goal outing on Monday moved them to 6-8 O/U on the season. This is still a Washington offense that is struggling to produce at even strength with just five 5-on-5 goals over its last five games. 

The Washington power play has accounted for the other seven goals, which is a tough thing to rely on for consistent scoring. Yes, the Pittsburgh PK is one of the worst in hockey, but I need some even-strength scoring if I’m going to hit the Over 6.5 at -110.

Jarry could certainly help the Over as his current play is tough to trust with an Under here. He’s allowed three, six, four, six, and three goals in consecutive starts with the Over going 3-2 over that stretch. 

The variance in this game when it comes to goal-scoring is high as we’ve seen both offenses struggle of late but each side has elite front-end scoring that can produce a 10-goal game with no problem. The goaltending on both sides has been suspect while both power plays can easily score more than once tonight. I don’t trust the Pittsburgh defense and the Orlov injury makes this Washington defense much weaker. I’m leaning on the Over 6.5 here but wouldn't be surprised to see a 3-2 or 4-2 divisional game. 

Penguins vs Capitals betting trend to know

The Underdog is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs Capitals.

Penguins vs Capitals game info

Penguins vs Capitals key injuries

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