Penguins vs Lightning Picks and Predictions: Tampa Bay Continues Winning Ways

Two of the best teams in the East will meet at Amalie Arena tonight as the Tampa Lightning put their five-game winning streak on the line against the Pittsburgh Penguins who are coming off two motivating wins themselves.

Can the Lightning pad their lead in the Atlantic Division over the Panthers and Leafs? Are the Penguins playing like the second-best team in the Metro Division?

Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Penguins vs. Lightning.

Penguins vs Lightning odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Lightning opened as -170 favorites with a total of 6 leaning to the Over. These two teams have met twice already this season but both times in October. The most recent game was in Pittsburgh with Tampa winning 5-1 as a -120 favorite and a total of 5.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Penguins vs Lightning predictions

• Prediction: Lightning 3-way ML (-110)
• Prediction: Under 6 (-105)
• Best bet: Point Over 0.5 assists (+120)

Predictions made on 3/03/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Penguins vs Lightning game info

• Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
• Date: Thursday, March 3, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: AT&T SportsNet, Bally Sports Sun

Penguins vs Lightning betting preview

Key injuries

Penguins: Jason Zucker F (Out).
Lightning: Zach Bogosian D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Penguins vs Lightning head-to-head record since 2017-16

Penguins: 3-7 SU, 29 goals for.
Lightning: 7-3 SU, 36 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Lightning are 5-1 SU in their last six after scoring five goals or more in their previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Lightning.

Penguins vs Lightning picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Tampa Bay Lightning have won eight of their last 10 games and now find themselves atop the Atlantic Division. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been more than solid having won four straight starts and not allowing more than three goals in eight straight starts. The offense is scoring 4.00 goals per since February 1 and Jon Cooper is rolling four solid lines effectively and has arguably the deepest blue line in hockey. But is Tampa struggling to beat good teams?

Since December 1, the Lightning have the second-best record in hockey with a 23-6-2 record but have dropped games to good teams: Panthers, Rangers (x2), Bruins, Vegas, Colorado, and two upsets in Ottawa and Anaheim. However, only three of those losses came at home and two of them went to overtime. At home, Tampa is 11-1-2 since December 1 with a plus-1.14 goal differential per game. 

Tampa comes into this game as a -170 home favorite which is a pretty bang-on price as the Bolts have recently been -190 home favorites versus the Oilers and -150 against the Golden Knights. Is there some value in the Pens at +150 here, however?

The Penguins enter tonight’s meeting having won back-to-back games. They won a playoff-style matchup versus the Rangers on Saturday and followed that up with a comeback win over the Blue Jackets on Sunday. They had lost their previous three games before that and both of those victories could have gone the other way, as well.

The Pittsburgh offense isn’t exactly in top form heading into tonight’s meeting against one of the best home goalies in the league in Andrei Vasilevskiy. Over their last five games, Pittsburgh has failed to score more than three goals and has tallied exactly one goal three times. Of the nine goals the Penguins have scored over their last five games, four of those came with the man advantage, and facing a Tampa penalty kill that is much better at home could cut into their offense even further.

Although not confirmed, Tristan Jarry will likely get the nod for the visitors. He is coming off a massive shutout win over the Rangers but that game was likely one he had been looking forward to. Heading into that game, the Pens’ puck-stopper had allowed 13 goals in his previous three starts — all losses. Since Christmas, Jarry is 11-8 SU with an unpleasant 2.88 GAA which doesn’t blow us away.

The Penguins will also have to head out tonight following the game as they have a date with division leaders, the Carolina Hurricanes, Friday night in a game that has big standing implications. 

Tampa is starting to come into playoff form and is somehow flying under the radar as the best team in the Eastern Conference. It has been unstoppable at home and has picked up at least one point in 13 of its last 14 home games. Vasilevskiy has a 1.94 GAA at home this season and could shut down a Pittsburgh offense that has struggled to score at even strength of late.   

We like the Penguins as a darkhorse in the East, but don’t like their current form and schedule in a tough environment tonight. The Pens have won just once in their last six meetings in Tampa.

Prediction: Lightning 3-way ML (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Tampa Bay offense has scored 23 goals over its last five games. Brayden Point is coming off a four-point performance and is riding a seven-game point streak. Second-line centerman, Steven Stamkos, has six goals over his last five games while Nikita Kucherov has recorded a multi-point game in four straight contests. The big boys are rolling for the Bolts but is it enough to get this past the 6 total?

Pittsburgh getting more than two goals is a legitimate concern. The Leafs, Rangers, and Devils have all held this offense to a single goal over the last two weeks and the Pens needed some third-period dramatics to beat Elvis Merzlikins in a 3-2 victory versus the Blue Jackets. With just five even-strength goals over their last five games, we’re bearish in the Pens solving Vasilevskiy.

Beating the Bolts at even strength is a tough task. Only the Flames allow fewer 5-on-5 goals per game than Tampa Bay who rank in the Top-5 in goal%, xgoal%, and expected goals against at even strength.

Although the Lightning’s offense is humming and Jarry has been average over the last two months, his latest outing was encouraging with a shutout over the Rangers while he has been a solid road goalie this season. Over 21 road games, the Penguins’ No. 1 has a solid 2.12 GAA with a .926 SV% which are better than his home numbers on the season. 

This number or price could likely crawl upwards as the day progresses but we’re leaning on the Under 6 (-105) as of now. Pittsburgh is 4-0 to Under in its last four road games while the Bolts are 4-2 to the Under in their last six at home.

Prediction: Under 6 (-105)

Best bet

Point, Stamkos, and Kucherov are all on incredible individual streaks which makes shopping for props a little easier. All three of their goal props are priced at +165 which shows the consistency that these three have been scoring. 

With the Pens having an elite penalty kill, we’re going to avoid the power-play market despite the Lightning tallying four PP goals over their last three games. 

Point centers the top line with Kucherov and Ondrej Palat. Kucherov is the only player listed with a point total set at 1.5 and Point has no problem sending things over the winger at even strength or on the PP as Kucherov has a goal in four straight. This line has a 64% xgoal% on the season which is a Top-5 mark and we have no problems hitting Point Over 0.5 assists at plus money while Kucherov’s price for the same prop is -165. Point is coming off a three-assist night versus the Sens at home and leads the team in assists over the last 10. 

 Pick: Brayden Point 0.5 assists (+120)

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