The Toronto Maple Leafs and Pittsburgh Penguins will meet for the third time this season Thursday night at Scotiabank Arena which will be a little louder with 50% capacity. Pittsburgh has taken both meetings with Toronto managing just a single goal in the two defeats.
Can the Leafs’ offense finally get to Tristan Jarry? Can the Pens build on their current four-game winning streak after coming out of the All-Star break hot? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Penguins vs. Maple Leafs.
Penguins vs Maple Leafs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Toronto opened as -145 ML favorites and have inched to -150 with a total of 6, leaning heavily to the Over. The Leafs closed as -160 ML favorites in a home meeting back in November which Pittsburgh won 2-0. That total closed at 5.5. Toronto recently closed as -135 home favorites at home versus the Hurricanes with Petr Mrazek in net.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Penguins vs Maple Leafs predictions
- Prediction: Maple Leafs ML (-150)
- Prediction: Over 6 (-125)
- Best bet: Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5 (-105)
Predictions made on 2/17/2022 at 9:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Penguins vs Maple Leafs game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Thursday, February 17, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet Ontario, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Penguins vs Maple Leafs betting preview
Key injuries
Penguins: Teddy Blueger F (Out), Jason Zucker F (Out).
Maple Leafs: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Penguins vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record (since 2018)
Penguins: 6-4 SU, 32 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 4-6 SU, 24 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 7-0 in the Maple Leafs’ last seven when their opponent scores five goals or more in their previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Maple Leafs.
Penguins vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
The Leafs return home after a three-game road trip that saw them go 1-2 SU with losses to two solid goalies in Jacob Markstrom and Thatcher Demko.
The Leafs totaled 101 shots on net in the two defeats so, despite the results, this offense is still buzzing and capped off the trip with a six-goal performance in Seattle. But is it ready to get the monkey off its back and score some goals against Tristan Jarry and the Pens?
Thursday night will be the third meeting between the two clubs this year with both of those matches being played before December. The Leafs managed just one goal in the two games and were shut out at home on November 20. However, since getting blanked by Jarry on home ice, the Leafs are scoring 4.33 goals per game which is the best mark in hockey.
The first line is still lighting it up as Michael Bunting has eight goals in his last 11 games (+1,200 for ROY), Auston Matthews has 14 points over his last seven games (+900 MVP, +250 Rocket Award) and Mitch Marner has eight multi-point games over his last 11 contests.
The second line has also found the back of the net of late while the power play — the best in the league — has 11 goals over its last 10 games. Toronto is in great shape to finally get some past Jarry, but will it be enough?
The Pens have ripped off four straight wins since the restart but haven’t really been tested by elite competition. They needed two third-period goals and an OT winner to take two points versus a bad Flyers team, needed another third-period goal to beat the Devils, blanked the Sens 2-0 and had to come back from a 2-0 deficit versus the Bruins in a 4-2 win.
Pittsburgh has taken the points, but the wins haven’t been dominant and now with 10,000 people in Scotiabank Arena, the Leafs will have a little more support tonight.
Jarry has stopped 54 of 55 shots he’s seen from the Leafs this season but he hasn’t seen this top line of Bunting-Matthews-Marner. Even if Pittsburgh's elite PK can keep the Leafs in check with the man advantage, Toronto is playing great offensively right now at even-strength and will be much more competitive than the two previous meetings.
The last and possibly most important factor is in net with the Leafs. Jack Campbell picked up his second win in three starts versus the Kraken three days ago. His play hasn’t exactly turned the corner as he hasn’t returned to his 2021 form, but the two wins are encouraging and he stopped 29 of 31 shots in the last meeting.
Getting the Leafs at home at -150 is a solid price as they closed as -135 versus the Hurricanes 10 days ago. Pittsburgh hasn’t looked great against bad opponents of late and has trailed three of its last four games while giving up the first goal in all three of those matches.
The barn will have a little more noise and getting some fans back in Scotiabank is a big boost for the home side. Campbell still scares us a little but this offense is the best in hockey right now and if the Flyers can score four versus the Pens, the Leafs should be able to get it going. The Leafs are 17-4-1 SU at home this season.
Prediction: Maple Leafs ML (-150)
Over/Under analysis
The Leafs are 11-3 to the Over across their last 14 and even their most recent Under vs. Vancouver should have likely been a push. The Leafs’ weakness on the blue line is continuing to be exposed as Justin Holl is not a second-pairing defenseman.
The goaltending has been average while the offense has been the best in the league. That sounds like a great recipe for Overs to us but with the total almost sitting at 6.5, is the market too high on goals?
Jarry is having the best season of his career but is still 8-3 to the Over across his last 11 starts with a 2.95 GAA. Now, he’ll have to face an offense that is in cruise control and scoring over four goals per game. He hasn’t been his sharpest since New Year’s and the Leafs will want to get theirs after getting blanked in the last meeting.
Both clubs’ power plays are also entering Thursday’s game on a heater. The Pens scored two PP markers in their 5-4 OT win versus the Flyers on Tuesday and have 12 power-play goals over their last 10 games. Toronto has produced four PP goals over its last two games and is getting man-advantage production from both power-play lines.
Campbell is somehow the No. 3 betting favorite for the Vezina but he is losing starts to Petr Mrazek and there are reasons for it. Campbell is 8-0 to the Over across his last eight starts and the Leafs’ goalie owns a 3.86 GAA over that stretch. Toronto was the best Under team to start the season but Campbell was playing above expectations.
The first meeting in Pittsburgh saw a 7-1 Penguins' final which was followed by the 2-0 Pittsburgh win. After getting beat down, it was no surprise to see a low-scoring affair in the second meeting after Toronto got its doors blown off.
We are going to ride the Leafs’ Over again as Jarry and Campbell are not in the greatest form. Getting this number at 6 is a massive difference from the 6.5 and will likely close at the higher number as some books have already hit 6.5.
Prediction: Over 6 (-125)
Best bet
The Leafs will be looking to avenge that 2-0 shutout loss and come into this meeting scoring a league-best 4.33 goals per game over the last four months.
The top line is arguably the best in hockey right now and with the last change, Sheldon Keefe should be able to match up well. The defense and goaltending have forced this offense to run and gun lately which has produced plenty of goals.
Jarry has allowed three or more goals in six of his last 11 games and hasn’t seen an elite offense in ages.
The Leafs are paying -105 to hit their team total Over 3.5 and we’re happy to hit the Over with a team that's scoring 4.87 goals per game on home ice since November.
Pick: Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5 (-105)
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