It’s my birthday today and it’s taken me many years to realize that luck on that day is a true myth. Never overdo it on your birthday. Just keep it steady and get that vessel across the finish line and into some hopeful winners with your NHL picks.
These are my three favorite NHL player props for Monday, March 10.
NHL player prop bets today
Norris o0.5 points (+115 at bet365)
Drouin + Nichushkin o0.5 points each (+145 at bet365)
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Both teams to score in 1st period (+160 at bet365)
Best NHL player prop bets for March 10
Josh Norris Over 0.5 points (+115 at bet365)
With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, new lines have been created, and that means books will likely be slow to adjust lines to the appropriate opportunities the new skaters are getting.
One of those players with a new role is the Buffalo Sabres' Josh Norris, who is centering the top line and is on PP1. Jiri Kulich was quarterbacking that line but he isn't a first-line center and is also dealing with an injury, which helps. Norris played over 20 minutes in his first game for the Sabres, who were blanked in Florida.
Today, he has a better matchup vs. the Edmonton Oilers at home. His point is +115 at bet365 while some other books are as short as -102. The fair price for the worst top-line center who is also on PP1 to get a point is -130. At 20+ minutes and this role, I have this prop priced closer to -160.
If Norris points tonight, that prop could drop by 20 points for his next game. The triple stack with Tage Thompson and JJ Peterka, which correlates at 5-on-5 and PP1, is paying +320.
Jonathan Drouin + Val Nichushkin Over 0.5 points each (+145 at bet365)
Here is a second-line and PP1 correlated point stack in a great matchup vs. one of the worst teams in hockey that is even worse on the road.
The Colorado Avalanche have been red hot at home during their five-game winning streak, scoring 28 goals in those victories. The new second line of Valeri Nichushkin, Brock Nelson, and Jonathan Drouin looks incredible as the trio had four goals on Saturday vs. the Leafs with Nichushkin netting a hat trick and an assist.
This Drouin/Nichushkin stack was paying +200 on Saturday, which was a steal. The price drop is significant but is still within 10 points of my buy price of +135 in this home meeting vs. the Chicago Blackhawks, who have the fourth-worst expected goals against at all strengths over the last 10 games.
The Hawks also have to stop this Colorado power play that is scoring at 53% since the restart with nine power-play goals over its last five games. I’d pass on Nathan MacKinnon and Martin Necas for a point each at -180 (!!), but this second-line/PP1 stack at +135 or better today is a solid buy.
**NOTE**
The Avalanche moved Brock Nelson to PP1 and brought Drouin down making the true correlated stack Nichushkin/Nelson at +145. Both will be put on my record.
Maple Leafs vs. Hockey Club - Both teams to score in the 1st period (+160 at bet365)
It’s been an ugly road trip for the Toronto Maple Leafs, who are coming off a 7-4 loss to the Avs after a 5-1 defeat to Vegas the game before. The goaltending has been sub-par with Joseph Woll posting a negative GSAA/60 since the restart and Anthony Stolarz showing pedestrian advanced save metrics. Only the Islanders and Blue Jackets have worse expected goals against/60 at all strength than the Leafs over the last 10 games.
On the other hand, the Utah Hockey Club ranks second in expected goals for over the last 10 games (all strengths) and comes into tonight as just an even-money home dog vs. the Buds.
Toronto is 6-2 to the Over since returning to action and tonight could be another loose game with the Leafs offense doing its part and the goaltending failing to make big saves. Defenseman Chris Tanev is still questionable for today, as well.
I like this Over 6, I like all four stacks, and I like two-way scoring early. I’m hoping for a Woll start while Karel Vejmelka has played six straight games. Toronto has given up nine first-period goals over its last four games and no team has averaged more total first-period goals since the restart than the Buds at 2.75 per.
Live NHL odds
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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