We have a small but fruitful five-game slate to look forward to on Sunday.
There's plenty of value on the board, but I see the most in backing three offensive players to hit the scoresheet in advantageous matchups against teams trending in the wrong direction defensively.
Let’s take a closer look with my NHL picks for December 1.
NHL prop picks and best bets for December 1
Werenski Over 0.5 assists (-135 at bet365)
Johnston Over 0.5 points (-132 at FanDuel)
Terry Over 0.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 12-1 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Zach Werenski Over 0.5 assists
Zach Werenski is in the midst of a career season for the Columbus Blue Jackets. He's piled up 24 points through 22 games and is well on pace to blow past his previous career highs in goals and points.
He enters play riding a seven-game point streak. Werenski’s playmaking has been front and center during that time, with the star blueliner totaling nine assists in aggregate.
The assist train should keep moving against the Chicago Blackhawks. They rank seventh in 5-on-5 goals against over the past 10 games despite sitting 26th in expected goals allowed and 28th in shot suppression. Put another way, they have drastically outperformed their process.
Last season, Chicago’s tandem of Petr Mrazek and Arvid Soderblom combined to concede 16.6 goals more than expected. This year, that same duo sits at +8.6 goals saved above expected, an unbelievable swing.
It stands to reason the Blackhawks’ goaltending tandem will come back to earth sooner rather than later — especially if they continue to bleed shots and chances.
Prop bet #2: Wyatt Johnston Over 0.5 points
Wyatt Johnston is an offensive dynamo when playing with Roope Hintz and — to a lesser extent — Jason Robertson. The two just mesh together.
Johnston was recently moved onto a line with Hintz and Robertson and finds himself riding a five-game point streak. That's no coincidence.
If we zoom out and broaden the sample to include last season’s minutes as well, Johnston’s numbers don’t drop off one bit. He's produced 4.07 points/60 with Hintz since the beginning of last season.
Johnston is playing with arguably the two most dynamic players on the Stars when it comes to point production — at least over the past few seasons.
Although the Winnipeg Jets have continued to pile up the wins, their defensive process leaves a lot to be desired right now. At 5-on-5, they rank 30th in shot suppression and 28th in expected goals against over the last 10 games.
They’re giving up quantity and quality. I expect Johnston and his linemates to take advantage.
Prop bet #3: Troy Terry Over 0.5 points
Death, taxes, and Troy Terry at home. He's hit the scoresheet at least once in nine of 12 home games this season, good for a 75% success rate.
Terry is skating on a line with Frank Vatrano and Ryan Strome that has been surprisingly dynamic offensively. The Anaheim Ducks are generating shots and chances at a very high clip while controlling 56% of the expected goals share. They’re spending a lot of time on the front foot in the offensive zone.
Playing at home, Anaheim is in control of the matchups and can get Terry’s line more time away from Brady Tkachuk and Ottawa’s top unit. That's a plus.
This is also a better matchup than meets the eye against Linus Ullmark. He owns an .886 save percentage and has not fixed the team’s goaltending the way that was expected.
It’s not as if just one or two really bad games are pulling his overall numbers down. Ullmark has allowed at least 3+ in five consecutive games, including against weak offenses like Philadelphia and San Jose.
NHL odds today
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
