Thanks to some plus-money action, yesterday’s article went 2-1 SU for +2.55 units and the stacks were certainly stacking.
It’s a five-game slate tonight with more West Coast hockey but there is certainly more plus-money action hitting the card tonight.
These are my three favorite NHL player props for Wednesday, March 5.
NHL prop picks and best bets for March 5
Jones Over 0.5 power play points (+575 at bet365)
Killorn + Carlsson o0.5 points each (+400 at bet365)
Buchnevich + Thomas o0.5 points each (+170 at bet365)
Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Zac Jones Over 0.5 power play points (+575 at bet365)
With Adam Fox on the shelf, it’s Zac Jones stepping up and taking over the PP1 role. His minutes are up and he has over nine minutes of PP1 time across the last two games. In his last game, he played over 75% of the power-play time.
It’s not the best matchup tonight vs. the Washington Capitals, but Washington has not looked good out of the break and has below-average metrics across the board. The goaltending has been lucky and the PK has allowed three goals over the last two games.
No PP1 QB should be +575. His true price should not be more than +400. It’s a half-unit play to win about three units, but the New York Rangers are rolling of late. I like them on the ML at home as a dog and Jones will have opportunities to collect a PP point with a talented group for the Rangers.
Alex Killorn + Leo Carlsson Over 0.5 points each (+400 at bet365)
This is a price that is too big to let go. Getting a correlated pair at +400 is very rare. Leo Carlsson and Alex Killorn might play PP2 together, but their 5-on-5 line last night played more than any other line (nearly 13 minutes) and had two goals. The second power-play unit also gets around 40% of the power-play time so there are opportunities.
Killorn is playing almost two minutes more of late vs. his season average and Carlsson is coming off a two-point game (his second straight) and has 11 points over his last nine games dating back to February 1.
The Vancouver Canucks are a mess. Quinn Hughes has been ruled out and Kevin Lankinen has not been great at home this year with a 6-10 SU record. It’s Vancouver's first game at home since a 1-4 SU stretch following the break and the media and pressure are getting loud. The Anaheim Ducks just put up six goals vs. the Oilers last night and could be live dogs again tonight.
Pavel Buchnevich + Robert Thomas Over 0.5 points each (+170 at bet365)
I like a lot about the St. Louis Blues tonight. Their opponent just went 0-3 SU on a three-game road trip and was outscored 15-4 including a 4-1 loss in St. Louis. The Los Angeles Kings have lost four in a row and just returned from the East Coast which is a tough schedule spot.
St. Louis has been winning hockey games and the offense has been productive — scoring 3+ goals in seven straight while ranking third in hockey in scoring chance% over the last 10 games at all strength. I’ve already bet the visitor's team total Over 2.5 at -115, but I’m adding the Rob Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich stack at +170, too.
Thomas is riding a 10-game point streak where he has 14 points. Over those 10 contests, this stack has hit at 80%. Thomas’ power-play group has also been seeing more ice with the extra man than Jordan Kyrou’s unit. I would buy the Thomas/Buchnevich pair in any game at +140 or better these days. I compare them to the Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz pair that have been padding pockets as well.
NHL odds today
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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