It’s a tidy five-game slate on the ice Wednesday, and our top NHL player props are the perfect complement to the action.
It all starts with the Pittsburgh Penguins visiting the Montreal Canadiens and wraps up with an intriguing nightcap between the Winnipeg Jets and Los Angeles Kings. There’s also a bout between a pair of favorites in the Stanley Cup odds, as the New Jersey Devils host the Boston Bruins as a short home favorite in the NHL odds.
Games between the Anaheim Ducks and New York Islanders, and the Buffalo Sabres and Colorado Avalanche round out the docket.
Here are my free NHL picks for Wednesday, December 13.
NHL prop picks and best bets for December 13
- Pastrnak Under 4.5 shots (+115 at Bet99)
- Killorn Over 2.5 shots (+105 at Bet99)
- Toews Under 1.5 shots (+140 at Bet99)
Picks made on December 13 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Pasta jinxed by Jersey
The New Jersey Devils are cruising along a 6-2 run while allowing the fifth-fewest shot attempts (52.07) and ninth-fewest shots (27.85) per 60 minutes. They also rank sixth in 5-on-5 Corsi For percentage.
As a result, I’m skeptical of the Boston Bruins tonight, especially with injuries piling up on the depth chart. In particular, Boston will be without center Pavel Zacha (upper body). Of winger David Pastrank’s 368 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time this season, 258 have been spent alongside Zacha.
Boston is also going to be without No. 1 defenseman and power-play quarterback Charlie McAvoy (upper body).
Additionally, this checks out as an uptick in class for Boston following five of the past six games coming against the Columbus Blue Jackets (twice), San Jose Sharks, Buffalo Sabres, and Arizona Coyotes. So, with New Jersey a proven shot-suppressing team, I expect a wake-up call for the Bruins.
Finally, the Devils have taken the seventh-fewest minor penalties at 5-on-5, so power-play opportunities could be few and far between for Pastrnak and the Bruins. It’s notable because Pastrnak ranks third among NHL regulars in shots per 60 minutes (20.38) with the man advantage.
| Bet99 price | My projection | My price | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| +115 | 4.34 | -112 | 14% |
David Pastrnak prop: Under 4.5 shots (+115 at Bet99)
Prop bet #2: Killorn scorns Isles
The New York Islanders must be incredibly confident in their goaltending because they continue to give up shots in bunches. The Isles have yielded the second-most shot attempts (71.73) and shots (35.39) per 60 minutes for the season, and they’ve been even worse during their current 5-0-1 stretch with 77.14 and 38.41 marks.
It’s no wonder No. 1 goalie Ilya Sorokin is trading among the favorites in the Vezina Trophy odds.
Simply put, this is a cushy matchup for Anaheim Ducks winger Alex Killorn to continue padding the shots column.
He’s been clicking with linemates Leo Carlsson and Troy Terry the past six games with the trio sporting a 54.5 Corsi For percentage and 53.2 shot share at five-on-five. His shot volume is up across the board in his first season with the organization after spending the first 11 years of his career with the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Killorn is also skating with the No. 1 power-play unit and ranks second in shots per 60 minutes with the man advantage for the Ducks.
| Bet99 price | My projection | My price | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| +105 | 2.82 | -117 | 10% |
Alex Killorn prop: Over 2.5 shots (+105 at Bet99)
Prop bet #3: Sabres stymie Toews
My numbers are showing value on Colorado Avalanche defenseman Devon Toews’ shot prop. His shot volume is down to 4.35 shots per 60 minutes this season from the 5.26 mark he posted across the prior two years.
There’s an easy explanation, too.
Toews has only registered two power-play shots across 28 games (1.98 shots per 60) this year compared to 33 across 146 games (7.18 shots per 60) in the two previous seasons. There’s also a clear correlation with Toews’ shot volume increasing when defense partner Cale Makar missed time last season.
With Makar healthy and in the lineup, Toews shifts to more of a defensive focus alongside his superstar partner and also drops to the No. 2 power-play unit.
So, with the Buffalo Sabres a sneaky tough matchup, I value the long Bet99 odds available for Toews to fail to register two shots tonight. The Sabres have surrendered the fourth-fewest 5-on-5 shots per 60 minutes.
| Bet99 price | My projection | My price | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| +140 | 1.51 | +105 | 17% |
Devon Toews prop: Under 1.5 shots (+140 at Bet99)
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