Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Garland Lets It Rip Against San Jose

Prop bet #1: Bolts zap Carlson

Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson is in an offensive decline. Despite receiving more ice time, the veteran defenseman is scoring less at 5-on-5 and overall.

Carlson has also missed the scoresheet in five of his past 11 games, while five of his eight assists during the stretch have been with the man advantage. Dating back to last season, 19 of his 48 points have been on the power play (39.6%). 

The Tampa Bay Lightning are a run-of-the-mill defensive team overall, and allowing 3.5 goals per game while sporting a 79.4 penalty-kill percentage doesn’t check out at first glance.

However, the Bolts average the seventh-lowest shorthanded time per game, so I’m still viewing this as a neutral matchup — at worst — for Carlson.

Plus, Washington averages the third-fewest goals per game (2.43), and I have them rated as the sixth-worst offense.

John Carlson prop: Under 0.5 points (+115 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Bratt packs PP punch

The Detroit Red Wings visit the New Jersey Devils on the second leg of a back-to-back set, and the Wings are mired in a 2-6-1 mess while allowing a healthy 4.29 goals per 60 minutes.

Add Detroit taking the third most minor penalties at 5-on-5 in the league, and this checks out as a solid matchup for the dangerous New Jersey power play.

Devils winger Jesper Bratt paces the club in power-play points (18), and his contributions are balanced with five goals, five primary assists, and eight secondary helpers. Bratt garners a lot of touches with the man advantage and is equally capable of cashing in himself and setting up his teammates.

I also love the value of this prop because New Jersey center Jack Hughes is priced at +145, and his per-60 numbers on the man advantage are comparable to Bratt's marks.

Jesper Bratt prop: Over 0.5 power-play points (+200 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Calling on Conor

Vancouver Canucks winger Conor Garland paces the club in shots (9.94) and attempts (18.02) per 60 minutes and has a consistent secondary role, which includes being the go-to shooter on the No. 2 power-play unit. 

With the San Jose Sharks checking out as one of the better matchups in the shots market, I was surprised to see Garland carrying such long odds. 

The Sharks have surrendered the most shots (35.57) and attempts (71.17) per 60 this season, and their respective 33.32 and 69.38 marks across 10 games since Dec. 1 reinforce their lack of bite.

Finally, I particularly value Garland’s improved possession metrics. He also leads the Canucks in Corsi For percentage (56.2%) and boasts a sterling 10.3 relative CF%.

Conor Garland prop: Over 2.5 shots (+125 at Bet99)