It’s a loaded 13-game slate on the ice Thursday, so there are oodles of NHL player props to scour.
The Battle of Ontario highlights the early action, and the Toronto Maple Leafs are a road favorite over the Ottawa Senators in the NHL odds.
A pair of late-night games also have my attention. The Minnesota Wild take a four-game winning streak to Rogers Arena to face the Vancouver Canucks, and the New Jersey Devils are looking to make it five wins in their past six games while also continuing to prove they belong among the favorites in the Stanley Cup odds. New Jersey visits the Seattle Kraken in the nightcap.
Here are my free NHL picks for Thursday, December 7.
NHL prop picks and best bets for December 7
- Marchenko Over 2.5 SOG (+110 at DraftKings)
- Burns Over 2.5 SOG (+105 at SIA)
- Pettersson Under 2.5 SOG (+104 at BetRivers)
Picks made on December 7 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: March with Marchenko
The New York Islanders are allowing the most shot attempts (72.0) and second-most shots (35.2) per 60 minutes, and the Isles also sport the second-worst Corsi For percentage (44.8) at 5-on-5.
It’s a sweet setup for the Columbus Blue Jackets and winger Kirill Marchenko to stack the shots column. In particular, I value Marchenko’s shooting consistency. He’s registered at least two shots in 10 of his past 11 games and cleared this 2.5-shots total five times.
Additionally, the Islanders have taken just 59 minor penalties at 5-on-5 – tied for second fewest in the league — so Marchenko’s strong even-strength shooting metrics carry more importance. He’s second on the Blue Jackets in both shots (8.8) and attempts (16.7) per 60 at 5-on-5.
Finally, I also value that Columbus winger Patrik Laine (illness) will be out of the lineup. Marchenko has seen an uptick in ice time in each of the past two games Laine missed.
| DraftKings price | My projection | My price | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| +110 | 3.04 | -129 | 18% |
Kirill Marchenko prop: Over 2.5 shots on goal (+110 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #2: Back the Beard
I was surprised to see plus-money odds on the Over 2.5 shots for Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brent Burns. He’s been a high-volume shooter throughout his 20-year career and even topped 300 in four consecutive seasons with the San Jose Sharks.
After pulling back the curtains, perhaps his recent Under rut has a lot to do with the price. He’s failed to top this 2.5-shots total in three of his past four games. Plus, drawing the Calgary Flames on the second leg of a back-to-back road set isn’t an A+ matchup. Calgary ranks 10th in attempts (57.2) and seventh in shots (28.3) surrendered per 60 minutes.
Still, Burns is firing rubber.
He’s recorded just seven shots during the noted four-game stretch despite attempting 27 — second most on the ‘Canes. Converting 25.9% of attempts into shots is unsustainably low efficiency, especially considering Burns posted a 34.8 mark while leading Carolina in shots through the first 21 games of the season.
| SIA price | My projection | My price | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| +105 | 2.65 | -106 | 6% |
Brent Burns prop: Over 2.5 shots on goal (+105 at SIA)
Prop bet #3: Minny’s a New Beast
The Minnesota Wild have received the new-coach bump. They’ve rolled off four consecutive wins and shown immediate improvement in their shot suppression and possession metrics.
It’s a small sample against ho-hum competition, but the proof is in the pudding, and Minny head coach John Hynes has the Wild playing a more responsible brand of hockey.
| Shots against per 60 min | Attempts against per 60 min | 5-on-5 Corsi For% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| First 19 games | 30.1 | 60.1 | 49.9 |
| Last four games | 27.0 | 56.5 | 53.7 |
My qualm with Vancouver Canucks center Elias Pettersson is the underwhelming duo flanking him at even strength. Ilya Mikheyev and Sam Lafferty aren't top-six staples, and neither winger has consistently been a driver of possession. Lafferty, in particular, is saddled with a career 45.3 CF% and -3.4 relative CF%.
Additionally, Pettersson has failed to go Over 2.5 shots in eight of his past 12 games.
| BetRivers price | My projection | My price | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| +104 | 2.09 | -124 | 13% |
Elias Pettersson prop: Under 2.5 shots on goal (+104 at BetRivers)
Not intended for use in MA.
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