Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Hart Shines Against Struggling Wild

Prop bet #1: Zeros for Zuccarello

I’m going back to the well with Minnesota Wild winger Mats Zuccarello in the points market. He picked up a power-play assist on a five-on-three man advantage Wednesday, but he was caved in at five-on-five (37.9 Corsi For percentage) and on the ice for just 0.34 expected goals.

The Wild have been tamed with star winger Kirill Kaprizov (upper body), and top defensemen Jonas Brodin (upper body) and Jared Spurgeon (lower body) out of the lineup over the past four games. Minny has only scored seven times while generating just 22 high-danger scoring chances.

Zuccarello’s numbers also plummet without Kaprizov by his side. The duo has clicked for 5.01 goals per 60 minutes and 3.33 per 60 at 5-on-5 over the past three years, and the Norwegian winger dips to 2.37 and 1.45 marks without his Russian linemate.

Friday’s matchup against the Philadelphia Flyers is neutral at best, too. Philly ranks 13th in goals against (2.47) and expected goals against (2.43) per 60 at 5-on-5, and the Flyers sport a second-ranked 86.3 penalty-kill percentage. 

These are long odds for Zuccarello considering how challenged the Wild have been on offense across the past four games.

Mats Zuccarello prop: Under 0.5 points (+180 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: He's got Hart

Backing Flyers goalie Carter Hart goes hand-in-hand with my previous pick. 

As discussed, the Wild have been an offensive mess lately, and Hart is also a ripe candidate for statistical correction. His .890 SV% across his past six appearances is far short of the .919 mark he posted through his first 17 games this season, and I expect him to stand tall against the injury-depleted Wild on Friday. 

It’s also worth noting the netminder's odds aren’t too far off of the Wild Under 2.5 goals (+125), so if Minnesota’s third goal is an empty netter or the Wild win 3-2 in a shootout, Hart would still cash the Under 2.5 goals against.

Carter Hart prop: Under 2.5 goals against (+110 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Joe with a little help for his friends

Dallas Stars winger Joe Pavelski has gone five games without an assist despite skating on the No. 1 line and top power-play unit. Additionally, he skates in all situations with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz, and they rank first and second in goals per 60 minutes over the past three years for Dallas. Pavelski ranks second on the club in assists per 60 (2.03) during the same timeframe.

The trio have also been on the ice together for 45 goals (5.6 per 60) this season, which slightly trails the 5.98 goals per 60 they clicked for over the previous two years. Pavelski's odds are showing value considering his long-standing chemistry with Robertson and Hintz.

It’s also a soft matchup. The Nashville Predators have allowed 3.71 goals per game since the holiday break, and nothing is intimidating about their 25th-ranked 76.7 penalty-kill percentage.

Joe Pavelski prop: Over 0.5 assists (+135 at Bet99)