Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: No Points For You

Prop bet #1: Rangers say no to Foligno

The Chicago Blackhawks are in for a tough road game against the New York Rangers on Thursday. New York is coming off a 6-1 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday, and I’m expecting the veteran Rangers lineup to tidy it up and wash the inferior Blackhawks.

In particular, I don’t expect Chicago winger Nick Foligno to mark the scoresheet. He has a respectable eight goals and seven assists through 37 games, but his five multi-point showings account for 12 of those 17 points.

He’s missed the scoresheet entirely 27 times (73%).

Aside from skating with the No. 1 power-play unit, Foligno is playing a defensive role with 58.6% of his five-on-five zone starts in his own end. Add the veteran’s 44.3 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5 and penalty-kill role, and there aren’t many offensive opportunities. The Rangers also rank sixth in penalty-kill percentage (83.6%) to mitigate Foligno’s PP gig.

I believe we’re receiving value on the Nick Foligno odds in this market because most depth charts position Foligno and linemates Jason Dickinson and Colin Blackwell as Chicago’s No. 2 line, but the trio checks out as a fourth line on nearly every other team in the NHL.

Returning to the Blueshirts, No. 1 goalie Igor Shesterkin posted a .946 save percentage across five consecutive wins before Tuesday’s blunder. I’m anticipating a return to Vezina form with the Blackhawks failing to drive possession (43.9 CF%) or generate offense (league-low 2.15 expected goals per 60 minutes) at five-on-five.

Nick Foligno prop: Under 0.5 points (-135 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Winnipeg too high a hurdle for Tomas

The Winnipeg Jets have been a nightmare for opposing offenses, and San Jose Sharks center Tomas Hertl has cooled considerably since mid-December.

Winnipeg has allowed the fewest five-on-five goals (1.69) per 60 minutes, and No. 1 goalie Connor Hellebuyck is dialed in with a .939 save percentage while allowing two goals or fewer in 14 of his past 15 games. The Jets are also disciplined with the sixth-fewest minor penalties at 5-on-5 and the seventh-lowest shorthanded ice time per game.

Additionally, I’m anticipating tough on-ice matchups for Hertl. These two teams just met on December 12, and the Czech center was caved in to the tune of a 39.3 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5. He lined up opposite Winnipeg’s top three centers, and Mark Scheifele, Adam Lowry, and Vladislav Namestnikov all drive possession and have a positive goal share at 5-on-5. 

I value the Tomas Hertl odds because he’s only found the scoresheet in three of the past 10 games and sports a 45.2 CF% and 35.4 goals-for percentage for the year.

Tomas Hertl prop: Under 0.5 points (+110 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Isles in sneaky shots spot

The New York Islanders head to Mullett Arena following consecutive road losses, including registering just 22 shots and 44 attempts while blowing multiple leads during a 5-4 overtime loss to the Colorado Avalanche on Tuesday. 

New York has topped 30 shots on net in nine of its past 14 games, and three of those five games that they failed to reach the benchmark were against teams ranking top five in shots-against per game. Put differently, when facing an opponent that doesn’t suppress shots among the league’s best, the Isles are putting pucks on net.

The Arizona Coyotes have surrendered the 11th most shots (31.2) per game, and the Islanders have climbed from 29.2 shots per to 31.0 during the noted 14-game stretch.

So, while ‘Yotes goalie Connor Ingram has lacked game-to-game consistency, he does boast a .919 save percentage. Additionally, despite being opportunistic, the Islanders struggle to capitalize. New York ranks 24th in high-danger goals per 60 minutes and 22nd in team shooting percentage at five-on-five.

Finally, I’m not expecting special teams to have a major impact on this prop. The Islanders have drawn the sixth-fewest minor penalties at 5-on-5, and the Coyotes have taken the 14th fewest while averaging the 11th-lowest shorthanded ice time per game.

It all adds up to value on Connor Ingram's odds in this saves market.

Connor Ingram prop: Over 26.5 saves (-120 at Bet99)