Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Ehlers Fires Up the Jets

Prop bet #1: Ehlers shot parade marches on

Winnipeg Jets winger Nikolaj Ehlers has seen his shot volume skyrocket since teammate Kyle Connor sustained a knee injury in mid-December. Ehlers jumped from 9.65 shots and 21.34 attempts per 60 minutes to elite 13.24 and 25.68 marks across the past 13 games — good for the 10th- and second-highest ranks among NHL regulars.

The sweetener tonight is Winnipeg lands in a cushy home-ice matchup against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus has allowed the third-most shots per 60 (33.88) in the league, and the Jackets have been even more susceptible to opposing shooters with 34.44 per 60 through six games out of the holiday break. 

Losing No. 1 defenseman Zach Werenski (ankle) in the first game back didn’t help, and it exacerbated Columbus already being without center Boone Jenner (jaw). If Jenner and Werenski were healthy, they’d be seeing major minutes against the opposition’s best players, so the matchup is all the more favorable for Ehlers and the Jets on Tuesday.

Nikolaj Ehlers prop: Over 3.5 shots (+105 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Casey merely mid vs. Kraken

Having not lost since December 18, the Seattle Kraken boast a six-game winning streak where they've allowed just six goals. They’ve also been off since last Thursday, and the blueline corps is at full health.

Additionally, there might be a flu bug flying through the Buffalo Sabres dressing room after wingers Jordan Greenway and Victor Olofsson missed practice Monday with an illness.

The recent defensive results for Seattle also check out, with the Kraken ranking fifth-best in goals and expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Seattle ranks 10th in 5-on-5 Corsi For percentage (51.6%). Add taking the 10th-fewest minor penalties at 5-on-5 and ranking a respectable 12th in penalty-kill percentage (8053%), and the Kraken rightfully rank as the fifth-best defense in my ratings.

Turning to Buffalo center Casey Mittelstadt, he’s projected to drop down to the third line against Seattle tonight. If Greenway can suit up, he’ll join Mittelstadt and Zach Benson, and the trio has been the definition of average with 3.27 goals, 2.51 xGF, and 9.8 high-danger scoring chances per 60 at 5-on-5 across 110:12 of shared ice time.

Of course, Mittelstadt’s role on the No. 1 power-play unit is a huge boon to his offensive upside, but he’s only registered four points with the man advantage all season. And, as noted, the Kraken defend well while shorthanded and are among the more disciplined teams in the league.

Casey Mittelstadt prop: Under 0.5 points (-110 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Sorokin delivers at UBS

The New York Islanders are one of the worst 5-on-5 possession teams in the league with a 30th-ranked 45.4% Corsi For percentage, and they’ve lost the 5-on-5 possession battle in five of six out of the holiday break. As a result, I’m expecting Isles No. 1 goalie Ilya Sorokin to see ample rubber against the Vancouver Canucks.

Sorokin has also been solid on home ice with an 8-2-6 record and .917 save percentage, and 12 of the 20 games he’s cleared this 27.5-save total have been at UBS Arena. Turning to an even larger sample, Sorokin boasts .929 and 2.20 marks at home dating back to the 2021-22 campaign.

Additionally, I anticipate the Canucks to focus on generating more shots because they’re playing their third road game in four nights and this is also a back-to-back set. Vancouver paces the league in ice time per game with a lead (29:47) and has the fourth-lowest shots per 60 minutes (25.82) while ahead, so with the Islanders a short home favorite, I don’t think the Canucks will collapse into a defensive shell. As long as this game stays tight, Vancouver will aggressively push the play to create shooting opportunities.

Ilya Sorokin prop: Over 27.5 saves (-105 at Bet99)