NHL action kick starts with Game 2 between the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden tonight and wraps up with the series opener between the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars at the American Airlines Center.
Carolina and Dallas are the betting favorites, but it was New York winning Game 1 on Sunday, and the Avalanche rolling over the Winnipeg Jets in Round 1. Here are my NHL picks for the pair of anticipated matchups on May 7.
NHL prop picks and best bets for May 7
- Jake Guentzel Over 2.5 shots (-154 at BET99)
- Jake Oettinger Over 27.5 saves (-125 at BET99)
- Logan Stankoven Over 1.5 shots (-154 at BET99)
Picks made on 5-7 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Going to Guentzel
Carolina Hurricanes winger Jake Guentzel regularly traded with a 3.5-shot total leading into the playoffs, and a dip in his shots and attempts during Round 1 against the New York Islanders is providing a 2.5 total for Game 2. Guentzel registered five shots on nine attempts against the New York Rangers in the series opener, and he’s set to log big minutes again while skating on the top line and No. 1 power-play unit.
Guentzel only registered seven shots on 25 attempts for 4.21 and 15.04 per 60 minutes against the Islanders, and those per-60 numbers are way below his 10.69 and 21.18 marks across 17 regular-season games with Carolina. The uptick in shot volume in Game 1 is more in line with his past production and isn’t being fully priced into these Jake Guentzel odds. He averaged 3.7 shots per game across his past five trips to the postseason, after all.
Finally, I also value Guentzel clicking with linemates Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov for a 60.0 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five in Game 1 and an even better 66.2 CF% when adjusted for score and venue.
Jake Guentzel prop: Over 2.5 shots (-154 at BET99)
Prop bet #2: Busy night in Big D net
The Colorado Avalanche registered the most shots per game (37.0) and attempts per 60 minutes (71.4) in Round 1, and I’m anticipating them attacking in waves again Tuesday. Colorado drove 5-on-5 possession against the Winnipeg Jets with a 54.3 Corsi For percentage, and the Avs had at least 32 shots in all five Round 1 games.
Dallas Stars No. 1 goalie Jake Oettinger is going to be busy, and he’s also been up to the task after he and the Stars found themselves in an 0-2 hole against the Vegas Golden Knights in the opening round. Oettinger has a .946 SV%, 1.53 GAA, and 5.96 goals saved above average with just 11.47 expected goals against over the five-game stretch.
I’m also targeting these Jake Oettinger odds because Dallas allowed the third-most shot attempts per 60 minutes (61.73) in Round 1 among advancing teams, so I’m anticipating Oettinger seeing enough rubber to make 28+ saves.
Jake Oettinger prop: Over 27.5 saves (-125 at BET99)
Prop bet #3: Top-line Logan
The Stars are rolling out the same lineup to start Game 1 against the Avs, which means rookie Logan Stankoven will skate with Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson. While Dallas definitely has a balanced lineup, Hintz and Robertson rank first and second in postseason assists dating back to last spring, and Stankoven registered three shots on five attempts in Game 7 against Vegas.
Stankoven cleared this 1.5-shot total in five of seven Round 1 games after averaging 2.1 shots per contest during the regular season. Skating with Hintz and Robertson should also help Stankoven continue to up his shots and attempts, and it’s a primary reason I’m recommending these Logan Stankoven odds.
The junior and AHL pedigree and production suggest the arrow is pointing straight up for Stankoven after he recorded 3.2 shots per game in the minors this year and 5.5 per over his final two WHL campaigns.
Logan Stankoven prop: Over 1.5 shots (-154 at BET99)
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