The Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators will look to shake off the rust as both clubs return to action Saturday night at Scotiabank Arena after sitting idle for nearly two weeks. Toronto comes in as the heavy favorite and the long break has helped return this team to full strength for the first time in a while.
Will the Senators have to turn to Matt Murray in net with Anton Forsberg being placed on COVID protocol on Monday? Can the Leafs continue to be one of the East’s best and beat an opponent that has given them troubles in the past? Find out in our free betting picks, predictions, and NHL odds for Senators vs. Maple Leafs.
Senators vs Maple Leafs odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Toronto opened as heavy -265 favorites on the moneyline with the total sitting at 6.5 and leaning to the Under. Toronto closed as -270 ML favorites in the last home meeting back in October with a total of 6.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Senators vs Maple Leafs predictions
Predictions made on 01/01/2022 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Senators vs Maple Leafs game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Saturday, January 1, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBC, Sportsnet
Senators vs Maple Leafs betting preview
Injuries
Senators: Josh Norris F (Out), Nick Paul F (Questionable), Tyler Ennis F (Out), Anton Forsberg G (Questionable).
Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner F (Out), Jake Muzzin D (Probable), Morgan Rielly D (Probable), William Nylander F (Probable), Rasmus Sandin D (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Senators vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record
Senators: 4-9 SU, 38 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 9-4 SU, 51 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Senators are 0-4 SU in their last four meetings in Toronto. Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Maple Leafs.
Senators vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline/Puck line analysis
With the NHL postponing eight upcoming games in Canada due to attendance restrictions, tonight's Senators vs. Maple Leafs matchup will be one of the few Canadian home games over the next two weeks. The lighter schedule should work for both clubs as they try to ease back into the NHL season after being off for nearly two weeks thanks to COVID extending the Christmas break.
The Leafs are looking healthier as William Nylander, John Tavares, and Morgan Rielly are looking probable to suit up. Injured defensemen Jake Muzzin and Rasmus Sandin are also trending towards playing while injured star winger Mith Marner could draw in as well. Marner has been out since December 1 with a shoulder injury but he's fulfilled the requirements of the LTIR and is eligible to play Saturday.
If all of these skaters suit up, this will be the first time all season that Sheldon Keefe will have all his players in the lineup. That’s a scary thing for the Senators as the Leafs have the best point percentage since November 1 and a +1.46 goal differential per game over that stretch, which is the best mark in hockey.
The Senators will have to deal with the league’s best power play over the last two months that has also scored 11 PP goals in its last six games. On top of that, this shorthanded Ottawa team will be in tough at even strength as the Buds rank second in the league in expected 5-on-5 goals while Auston Matthews is riding a 10-game point streak where he's scored 13 total goals. To make matters worse, the Sens will likely be without their No. 1 goaltender.
Anton Forsberg had been playing great heading into the break with a 5-1-1 record over his last six starts. However, his status for tonight's game is murky after he was placed in the NHL’s COVID protocols on Monday. Filip Gustavsson (3-8 SU, 3.78 GAA) and recently recalled Matt Murray (0-5 SU, 3.26 GAA) are the two other options to get the start. Forsberg started both games against the Leafs this season and recorded 42 saves in Ottawa’s 3-2 home victory back in October.
The visitors will also be missing some key pieces to the offense as first-line winger Josh Norris is out and will be replaced by Tim Stuzzle. Norris and the top line had been dominating before the break and losing that chemistry is huge. Norris had seven points in his last seven games.
With those potential absences, this Ottawa team could resemble its October-November form where they went an abysmal 4-16 SU. The last meeting in Toronto (October 16) closed with the Leafs as -270 ML favorites, but with the uncertainties in net for Ottawa and Toronto getting back to full health, there is an argument to be made that -265 is a little short. The Sens could struggle to keep the puck out of the net and - without Norris' contributions - might fail to light the lamp against one of the best goalies in the league in Jack Campbell.
Prediction: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-120)
Over/Under analysis
The Leafs were riding quite the Over heater heading into Christmas. They were 8-2 O/U in their last 10 with those two Unders coming in a 4-1 win and a 5-1 win. Since November, this is the No. 4 offense at 3.67 goals per game and is powered by a power-play unit scoring at a league-best 37.9 percent rate over that stretch. With Keefe likely getting all his forwards back, Toronto, who sits second in xgoals at even strength, could be even more formidable at 5-on-5.
However, with a total of 6.5, we’re going to need the Senators to do their fair share of scoring, and facing a rested Campbell, who looks to be over a mid-season slump that was heavily affected by a heavy workload, is a tough task.
Campbell leads the NHL in save percentage at .937 and sits third with a 1.94 GAA. He's also atop the league in goals saved above expected on the season at 17.4 across 23 games. With a team total of 2.5 paying +115 to the Over, the books aren’t in love with Ottawa getting more than two goals. Toronto has won five straight meetings at home versus the Sens dating back to last season with Ottawa scoring one or fewer goals in three of those games and just 11 in total. Over his career, Campbell is 5-1-1 vs. the Sens and owns a 0.76 GAA against them this year in two games.
In the most-recent 6.5 totals, the Leafs either faced an elite offense (Edmonton) or had their backup starting (vs. Chicago). Neither of these circumstances will occur tonight. The Senators sit 21st in goals per game (2.79), have a league-average power play, and rank in the Bottom 8 in 5-on-5 goals per game.
This number is too high and could easily close at 6.
Prediction: Under 6.5 (-120)
Best bet
Anton Forsberg was the Senators' best player when these two teams last met in Ottawa and having to turn to either Murray or Gustavsson could turn this into a one-sided match quickly.
There is an argument that the Leafs are currently the NHL's best team and their best hockey might be ahead of them with the roster back to full strength and a well-rested Jack Campbell between the pipes. This puck line is starting to move and if this hits any lower, Toronto backers will likely have to look elsewhere for value.
Pick: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-120)
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