Stars vs Oilers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: No Stopping Offenses in Edmonton

On their fifth game of a six-game road trip, the Dallas Stars stop off in Edmonton to take on the Oilers, who despite just trailing the Stars by five points in the conference, are only three points ahead of the last playoff spot in the West.

The Oilers enter as -140 home favorites, and might get Zach Hyman back in the lineup after missing the last game. But with the Stars going 8-0-1 to the Over in their last nine games, should we expect another Edmonton shootout?

Find out my best bets in our NHL picks and predictions for Stars vs. Oilers on Thursday, March 16.

Stars vs Oilers best odds

Stars vs Oilers picks and predictions

Dallas Stars netminder Jake Oettinger is 5-1 SU over his last six starts and 6-2-3 over the last month, but the record is a little misleading. 

Oettinger has fallen out of Vezina Trophy contention thanks to some below-average play since the All-Star break, where the No. 1 goalie has a .899 SV% and a 3.03 GAA. He’s being supported by an offense that’s scoring 4.00 goals per game over that stretch, and has the second-best offense over the last 30 days — behind only the Edmonton Oilers. 

Because of the play in net and a hot offense, the Stars are 8-0-1 to the Over in their last nine games, and are an ideal team to hit tonight’s Over 6.5 before it hits 7.

Dallas’ power play is in top form, with four goals over its last two games. It will oppose the league’s No. 1 power play in Edmonton, which has a 34.2% success rate over the last 30 days. Dallas hasn’t been known as an offensive team this year, but it's scoring at its highest rate all season, and combined with its special teams and recent goaltending, it makes the Over 6.5 an easy choice.

Edmonton has seen a closing total of 7 in six of its last 10 games and has still been profitable to the Over at 6-3-1. Zach Hyman looks ready to return after missing the last game, and it will make things tough for Dallas as slowing down both top lines of Edmonton without the last change is not easy. The Oilers are averaging 7.03 total goals per game at home this season with the No. 2 home offense in the NHL.

If for some reason Jack Campbell (3.87 GAA with a .879 SV% last 10 games) starts for the home side, it might be hard to find a 6.5, but I’m still happy to have the Over 6.5 with Stuart Skinner, who is probable.

These are two of the best offenses in hockey right now, and with how top-heavy both clubs are, we could see big minutes from the top lines. 

I’d play the Over 6.5 up to -135, but anything higher than that, I’d have no issues with the Over 7 at +115. 

Dallas is being priced as a team that it's not right now, and that's giving a little value to the Over — even up to 7.

My best bet: Over 6.5 (-132 at BetRivers)

Stars vs Oilers moneyline analysis

The Oilers opened as a -135 favorite and moved as short as -150 on Thursday afternoon. Hyman’s presence at practice might have helped move the line, but this is also the fifth straight road game for the Stars, who still have one more game in Calgary on Saturday. 

Dallas is winning of late, but it isn’t doing it the same way as earlier in the season. Over the last 10 games, Dallas is 7-3 SU but sits in the bottom half of the league in GAA at 3.30. Their current form resembles what the Oilers have been doing of late — and basically all season — and that’s winning high-scoring games.

It’s likely not something that is sustainable for the Stars, who are without Tyler Seguin and lack scoring depth — especially on the wings. 

When Oettinger is not at his best (and he currently isn’t) he needs support to win, but facing the No. 1 offense in hockey could be more than the Stars can handle if this game turns into a shootout.

Five of the Stars’ last six opponents have scored at least three goals, and I’m doubting they can outlast an offense that's scoring 4.6 goals per game over its last 10 matches. That includes two games vs. the Bruins and two vs. the Maple Leafs.

If Stuart Skinner is confirmed (he’s likely), Edmonton could shorten up five to 10 points, but if Jack Campbell gets the nod, bettors should look at team totals because goals could be even more plentiful.

Stars vs Oilers Over/Under analysis

The Over takes a bit of a hit with Skinner probable to start, but this could easily be a 3 + 3 = 7 scenario. Skinner is 5-1 SU in his last six games, but like Oettinger, has been supported by his offense as he owns a 3.01 GAA over that stretch and the Over is 4-2.

Both offenses enter tonight in top form. The Stars might not have their best effort defensively thanks to a lengthy road trip, where they’ve already taken six of eight points. But they're scoring goals at will, and have been held to under three goals just once in their last nine games. They are 8-0-1 to the Over across that stretch.

Edmonton’s offensive success is not surprising to anyone, and is certainly priced in tonight. But Over bettors get the No. 1 power play, the No. 5 scoring offense at 5-on-5, and a Bottom-10 penalty kill. All of that equates to a team that is 41-21-6 to the Over on the season.

Oettinger’s struggles are giving the best value on the Over. He was a Vezina candidate before the All-Star break, but has become porous over the last month-plus. He’s 7-2-1 to the Over in his last 10 games with a GAA north of 3.00 and a SV% below .900. 

Stars vs Oilers betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two clubs. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs Oilers.

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