Fresh off a pair of golds at the Beijing Olympics and IIHF World Championships, Finland are looking to stay on top of the hockey podium with a semifinal win over rival Sweden as -170 favorites.
With another close game expected, special teams will be the difference Thursday night, but do the defensive-minded Swedes have the edge in that department?
Find out in my free WJC picks and predictions for Sweden vs. Finland, with puck drop on August 19.
Sweden vs Finland odds
| Sweden | Finland | |
|---|---|---|
| +138 | Moneyline | -170 |
| +0.5 (-112) | Puck line | -0.5 (-108) |
| Over 5.5 (-115) | Total | Under 5.5 (-105) |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of August 18, 2022.
Sweden vs Finland predictions
Predictions made on 8/18/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for World Junior hockey betting, here are some of the best bonuses available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $200 in free bets — regardless of if your bet wins or loses! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Claim Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Sweden vs Finland game info
• Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
• Date: Friday, August 19, 2022
• Puck drop: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN
Sweden vs Finland picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Puck line analysis
Arguably the biggest rivalry in international hockey will take place in Edmonton Thursday night, as the favored Finns take on their Swedish counterparts in the WJC semifinals.
There is no love lost between the two Scandanavian nations on the ice, and although the Finns come in as the favorite and are on quite the international heater, with gold medals at the Olympics and World Hockey Championships this calendar year, Sweden will show up Thursday night.
Of the big four countries (Canada, USA, Finland, and Sweden), Sweden’s play through five games in the tournament has been the weakest. They narrowly escaped the quarters with a 2-1 win over Latvia and have scored just 17 goals. But, with plenty of projected penalties in the heated game, Sweden have an edge.
The Finns have totaled 27 goals in the tournament, but 13 of those have come on the power play. That is a heavy reliance on the man advantage, and if we do see a parade in the penalty box, the Swedes have been elite on the penalty kill.
Sweden is 15-for-16 on the PK through five games and couple that with a very successful power play that is 7-for-15. The Swedish PP will see a Finnish PK that has been awful so far in Edmonton and is killing penalties at a 50% rate.
This game will be played very tightly at even strength and will be settled with the man advantage. Sweden have been tallying goals at a 47% rate on the PP and killing penalties at 94%. Both teams have had success on the power play, but the Swedish penalty kill will be the difference.
When these two teams met at the Olympics in February, five total power-play goals were scored, and 10 penalties, including a major, were called. Sweden lost that game in overtime but avenged that loss later at the IIHF World Championships with a 3-2 OT win over Finland.
In what I’m expecting to be a close game, despite the Finns having the talent edge, I’m riding the Swedes at +0.5, meaning if Sweden can at least take this game to overtime, I’m cashing.
Prediction: Sweden +0.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
With a total of 5.5 that doesn’t include overtime and some projected power play success, I’m off this total.
Both teams have been heavily reliant on the power play so far in the tournament, as Finland have scored 48% of their goals with the man advantage, and Sweden have potted seven of their 17 goals with the extra attacker.
This game could be like the 4-3 Sweden win at the Olympics that saw five PP goals, or it could be a tightly checked game more like the 3-2 game at the WHC.
The offensive gap between these two teams is pretty big, as the Finns are the much more offensive team and have seen at least seven goals in each of their five games. The Swedes are quite the opposite and have allowed just eight goals through five games.
I’d expect the Swedes will dictate the play at even strength, which will stifle offensive output. However, the possibility of multiple power-play goals is a risk on the Under 5.5 I’m not taking — but I am leaning that way since the market doesn’t include overtime.
Prediction: Under 5.5 (-116 at Coolbet)
Best bet
With the Swedes having a big edge in killing penalties while also having a power play that is scoring at the same rate as the Finns, it’s hard not to put our money down on Sweden.
Thanks to a shaky quarterfinal game that could actually benefit Sweden, as it gave them experience playing in a close do-or-die game, we’re getting a good price on the underdogs as Finland have been highly taxed all tournament.
The last two times these nations have met in major international competition, both games saw extra time, as the rivalry should close the edge that Finland have in talent.
Taking Sweden at +0.5 means a tie or victory in regulation is a winning ticket.
Pick: Sweden +0.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s Sweden vs Finland picks, you could win $24.97 on a $10 bet?
