It won’t be an easy task to snap a three-game losing streak for the Toronto Maple Leafs as they host one of the best in the West tonight in the Minnesota Wild. The visitors took the first meeting back in December in a 4-3 shootout and the Leafs might be starting to press heading into the trade deadline.
Can captain John Tavares snap out of his offensive funk? Will this game hit a total of 7 after opening at 6.5? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Wild vs. Maple Leafs for Thursday, February 24.
Wild vs Maple Leafs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Leafs opened as -155 favorites and have seen the ML slip towards the visitors slightly to -150. The market usually loves Toronto so this movement is interesting. The total sits at 6.5 and is leaning to the Over. The earlier meeting in Minnesota closed as a pick ‘em but the Leafs were without Mitch Marner.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Wild vs Maple Leafs predictions
Predictions made on 2/24/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Wild vs Maple Leafs game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Thursday, February 24, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN4, Bally Sports North
Wild vs Maple Leafs betting preview
Key injuries
Wild: Matt Dumba D (Out), Mats Zuccarello F (Probable), Jordan Greenway F (Doubtful).
Maple Leafs: Jake Muzzin D (Out), Rasmus Sandin D (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Wild vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record since 2016-17
Wild: 6-4 SU, 27 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 4-6 SU, 28 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 15-5-1 in Wild’s last 21 vs. the Atlantic. Find more NHL betting trends for Wild vs. Maple Leafs.
Wild vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
The sky is starting to fall in Leafs’ land, as is the tradition when the Buds lose a couple of games in a row. With the trade deadline on the horizon, the media is starting to get loud, especially with Jake Muzzin being placed on the LTIR, the second line struggling to score and the goaltending not being what it was in 2021. The Leafs have dropped three straight games (first time since October) versus the Blues, Canadiens and Blue Jackets and now face arguably the better team than that bunch in the Minnesota Wild tonight.
The Wild currently sit fourth in the Western Conference and have similar numbers compared to the Leafs including points percentage, goals for and goals against. These are two very equal teams and with the Leafs being -150 favorites, this line could actually be 20 points short and we’re seeing the market move that way.
Over their three-game skid, the Leafs dropped a back-and-forth battle with the Blues as -210 favorites, got beaten easily by Montreal as -390 favorites, and then lost in OT the following night to the Blue Jackets as -265 favorites. The Leafs haven’t just lost, they’ve lost as a heavy favorite.
The goaltending has been spotty — to be nice — and has posted a 3.25 GAA since December while the blue line has been an issue as well. With Muzzin out, the Leafs need players like Justin Holl, Rasmus Sandin (probable) and Timothy Liljegren to step up and asking them to do too much has not gone great so far. But it’s not just the backend that has been getting plenty of attention in the media, captain John Tavares and the second line is also struggling to produce.
Tavares has failed to score over the last 10 games while linemate William Nylander has just two goals over his last 11 contests. This team has been supported heavily by Auston Matthews’ incredible play and is now facing an equally offensive team in the Wild.
The Wild are scoring 3.79 goals per game, which is the third-best mark in hockey and better than Toronto. Toronto has the better special teams but the power play has failed to score over the losing streak. Minnesota is a hard team to match up against as it features two potent scoring lines and its bottom six can tuck as well. This team is incredibly similar to Toronto but is playing better hockey of late and is getting 15-20 free points on the moneyline in our opinion.
The Leafs were in press mode versus the Blue Jackets and still came up short. Facing a much better Wild team isn’t going to help and the lack of secondary scoring combined with the blue line size is working against them. Minnesota has no problem winning a high-scoring game.
Prediction: Wild ML (+130)
Over/Under analysis
The side took a little more work to come to a conclusion but the total won’t waste as much space. Tonight’s meeting is between two of the Top-4 offenses in hockey that have already played to a 4-3 final this season. Since January 1, both teams are averaging over 7.00 combined goals per game as each club is scoring roughly 4.00 goals and giving up 3.00 or more. Toronto is 14-5-1 to the Over while the Wild are 11-6-2 to the Over since the calendar hit 2022.
Kaapo Kahkonen has been confirmed in net for the Wild. He has won two straight starts but has been tagged for three or more goals in three of his last four starts. He sees a ton of pucks but still owns a 2.56 GAA and is 5-1-2 to the Over across his last eight starts.
At this point, it doesn’t matter who is in net for the Leafs as Sheldon Keefe has been rotating between Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek regularly and the Over has still hit in eight of their last 10 games. Campbell is 10-1 to the Over across his last 11 starts while Mrazek is 4-1 O/U in his last five starts.
The Matthews-Bunting-Marner line has been carrying the load offensively and should continue to do so tonight at even strength. The power play is still one of the best in the league and should find its way sooner rather than later after being held off the scoresheet across the last three games. The Wild have a penalty kill that ranks in the bottom half of the league and the Leafs managed two power-play goals in the last meeting.
The Wild might get some help offensively as Mats Zuccarello is questionable to suit up. He’ll slide into a top-nine role with an offense that is already loaded with scoring talent, especially with the rookie Matt Boldy playing so well with Kevin Fiala and Frederick Gaudreau.
If the Toronto vs. Columbus game closed at 7, this game should easily hit this mark and we’ve already seen the 6.5 move from -115 to -125 for the Over. Give us some goals.
Prediction: Over 6.5 (-125)
Best bet
Auston Matthews has literally put this team on his back offensively of late. With Nylander and Tavares squeezing the stick hard, Matthews picked up three points in his last game (one goal, two assists) and leads the league in goals per game at 0.72. He’s leapfrogged Leon Draisaitl as the betting favorite for the Rocket and with the Wild expected to score some tonight, the Leafs could be playing from behind and need to lean on 34 yet again.
Getting him to score at even money in a game that should have a total of 7 is a bargain and we’re happy to ride the stick of arguably the best goal-scorer in the league. When the Leafs need some help, Matthews is always there to bail them out.
Pick: Auston Matthews anytime goal (+100)
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