France vs Germany Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Men's Basketball

One of the most heated rivalries in international Men’s Basketball resumes in the Olympic Semifinal as France and Germany face off for a right to play for gold. Germany got the better of France in group play, but France is coming off its best performance of the tournament having handily defeated Canada who themselves were 3-0 in the “Group of Death”.

My France vs. Germany prediction is that it would be foolish to change priors too much after France’s one great outing in the tournament.

France vs Germany prediction

My best bet
Germany -4.5 (-110)

My analysis

France has done well to make the Semifinal in Men’s Basketball, after flaming out of the World Cup completely and squeezing by the group phase with some unimpressive performances. Oddsmakers were not sanguine about their chances of besting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Canadians, but they turned in a thoroughly dominant display.

France made the bold move of drastically changing their starting lineup against Canada and it paid off. Canada’s offense sputtered, and France was able to pour it on with a combination of Isaïa Cordinier’s shooting and the French bigs dominating Canada on the interior.

Rudy Gobert played just three minutes, and it did wonders for the French offense. France often gets into trouble when Rudy catches the ball doing anything other than about to dunk. Mathias Lessort and Gerson Yabusele can actually post up, backing their man down and either dumping it over the top to score or forcing help. They were able to badly punish Canada’s lack of size and draw umpteen fouls.

But Germany isn’t as vulnerable to such a strategy. Not only is Johannes Voigtmann significantly taller than any Canadian big at 6-foot-11, but Germany plays two bigs all the time from a position of strength. Canada’s best lineups are all some version of small ball, and if Dwight Powell is getting eaten up by the likes of Lessort they have no recourse.

Theoretically, France’s rim protection should pose a problem for Germany, because their two best offensive players — Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner — are not incredible shooters. Their pathway to success is driving the ball hard, right at the rim, and finishing inside. 

But while France has best-in-class rim protection, the speed of Schroder acts as a hard counter. Even in the halfcourt, he can blaze to the paint before a rotation is even halfway complete, and Franz’s speed and craft at his size is also hard to handle. Schroder has also shot the ball well enough during the tournament (where he’s making more than 41% of his triples) to keep the defense honest.

If France is the team that beat Canada handily, this line is reasonable. If they’re more akin to the team that needed a last-second four-point play to beat Japan and got smoked the first time they played Germany, the value here is obvious. I’m going with the larger sample we have on hand that suggests Germany is the much superior team.

Frances' future is now

My Victor Wembanyama prop: Over 11.5 rebounds (-110)

At first, it seemed Gobert’s near-total absence from action against Canada was a bold gambit by embattled France head coach Vincent Collet, but then Gobert subsequently claimed he had suffered a recent injury that required surgery on his finger. 

But then Collet asserted there had been no such surgery, suggesting that Gobert’s place on the bench was about the tactical decisions of the game and that Rudy was merely saving face. 
Notably, Gobert had already been benched to start the second half against Germany in the first game these two played, and Collet has been aggressively staggering Rudy and Victor’s minutes all tournament long.

It seems increasingly likely that Gobert’s role in this game will be minimal. He’s not available on prop boards anywhere I have seen. That in turn means that the relative value of Wemby’s props soar, and I think his rebounding prop is the place to strike. Wemby has had 12 rebounds twice already in the tournament, and that includes some time when he’s forced to space the floor around Gobert.

Germany takes a lot of shots around the basket because of Franz and Schroder, while people know that “long shots make long rebounds” the inverse is also true. The more shots at the rim that Germany takes the more likely it is that Wemby is in a position to nab the misses, and there will be plenty of those because even when he doesn’t get the block his presence alone causes a lot of errant shots.

France vs Germany same-game parlay (SGP)

Franz had a rough close to the NBA season, including a down series against the Cleveland Cavaliers that saw the Orlando Magic eliminated in seven games. But he is having an outstanding tournament during the Olympics, showcasing his trademark slashing style.

But the flaw in his game is only getting more glaring. Franz finished last year shooting 28.1% from three, and he’s now 5-25 through four games at the Olympics, for a cool 20% from downtown. This can no longer be considered a cold streak. Until proven otherwise this is just the level of shooter that Franz is.

This line had been juiced to high heavens at Under 1.5 during the NBA season, and even listed as Under 0.5 at times. The FIBA line is shorter, but so is the length of the game, likely decreasing Franz's volume of attempts. Given how effective Franz was as a driver against France when these two teams played last week, I’d expect that to again be the focus of his attack on Thursday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

France vs Germany odds

Odds as of 8-7.

France vs Germany game info

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