With the knockout stage virtually out of reach, Japan and Brazil will close out Group B play each hoping to leave the Paris 2024 Olympic Games basketball tournament with a single victory.
Brazil is currently listed as a 2.5-point favorite in the Olympic basketball odds.
My free Japan vs. Brazil predictions are below — find out why I like the underdog Japanese team and those extra points on Friday.
Japan vs Brazil prediction
My best bet
Japan +2.5 (-110)
My analysis
After getting crushed by 20 in their opener to Germany, Japan nearly pulled off an incredible upset but came up just short against the host French in a 94-90 overtime loss.
The Japanese were powered by some lights-out shooting from downtown, drilling 16 of 37 shots from 3-point range, a sharp 43.2% rate. That’s been their biggest tournament weapon so far, shooting a combined 28-for-71 from beyond the arc, a healthy 39.4% clip.
Their undersized roster, however, has been exposed throughout group play. Japan surrendered 15 offensive rebounds against the French, while the Germans shot 64.8% from 2-point range, leading to a +24 advantage in that category.
Brazil’s biggest problem so far at Paris 2024 is it’s inability to put up points. They tallied just 73 points in a 13-point loss to Germany after scoring just 66 in a 12-point loss to open group play. Yago Santos (18) and Vitor Benite (17) were the only Brazilians to score in double-digits against the Germans.
Brazil has yet to shoot better than 41% from the field through two games, and they’re hitting a modest 35.4% from 3-point range.
Keeping possession has been another big problem for Brazil, as they have allowed 20 turnovers over its first two games. That’s not a great stat to begin with, and its worse when coupled with their opponents shooting better than 50% from the field through two games.
If the Japanese can win the turnover battle — they have averaged 11.5 over two games — and continue to hit the moneyball at an elite level, it’s hard to not take the points.
Hachimura holds his own
My Rui Hachimura prop: Over 21.5 points (-110)
Lakers forward Rui Hachimura was having himself a game against France before his night ended on what might have been the lightest excessive force penalty in the history of international basketball.
A pull on the arm of a driving Rudy Gobert sent Rui packing with over eight minutes to play in the fourth quarter, ending his evening with 24 points and three rebounds. More importantly, France found its way back into the game, eventually winning 94-90 in overtime.
Hachimura has been Japan’s most productive player in Paris, the only one on the roster to go for 20+ points in each of their two games. His scoring line is set at 21.5, and after a bitter ending against the French, crushing Japan’s hopes of advancing to the knockout stage, look for Rui to finish strong.
Japan vs Brazil same-game parlay (SGP)
Japan +2.5
Rui Hachimura Over 6.5 rebounds
Yago Dos Santos Over 6.5 assists
Let’s stay with Hachimura as we build up our SGP.
His rebound line seems properly rated at 6.5, as he takes on a Brazilian side that is ranked 10th out of 12 teams in rebounding, averaging just 33.5 per game.
Rui finished with a 20-point, 10-rebound double-double in the opener to Germany, and would have been likely near the number at the very least against the French, where he finished with three rebounds before getting ejected.
We’ll wrap this up with Brazillian reserve Yago do Santos, who has been keeping teammates well-fed at Paris 2024. He’s led the team in assists in both previous games, doling out eight dimes in the loss to Germany and six helpers in the loss to France.
Sharing the fourth-best assist odds in Paris, Santos is one of seven players who is averaging at least seven dimes per game. Throw in the fact Japan has surrendered 24 or more assists in each of its first two losses, and Santos should be able to hit that Over on Friday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Japan vs Brazil odds
| Japan | Brazil | |
| +2.5 (-114) | Spread | -2.5 (-106) |
| +118 | Moneyline | -144 |
| Over 165.5 (-110) | Total | Under 165.5 (-110) |
Odds as of 8-1.
Japan vs Brazil game info
| Location: | Pierre Mauroy Stadium, Villeneuve-d'Ascq, France |
| Date: | Friday, 8-2-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 5:00 a.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
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