The final spot on the Paris podium is up for grabs on Sunday as Belgium and Australia battle for the women’s basketball bronze medal, with little to choose between these two talented rosters.
The Belgians suffered a gut-wrenching 81-75 overtime loss to France in the semifinals, but the Opals were stung in a different way in an ugly 85-64 thumping at the hands of a star-studded USA roster.
My Belgium vs. Australia predictions weigh up which team will set their disappointment aside to grab the bronze.
Belgium vs Australia prediction
My best bet
Under 147.5 (-110)
My analysis
Neither of these teams shot the ball well in their semifinal losses, running into solid defenses and falling short of their more dynamic performances earlier in the tournament.
I see some of those offensive struggles carrying over into this bronze medal game. The desperation to avoid leaving the Olympics empty-handed should spark a tight, tense contest, and that makes the Under an attractive pick with an O/U line of 147.5.
The Opals were ice-cold from 3-point range against the Americans, making just seven of their 29 triples, and the Belgians were only slightly more accurate with their 6-for-20 outing from downtown against France.
Though Belgium’s offense has averaged 76.4 ppg in Paris, I’m predicting they’ll fall short of that number here, particularly with Australia smarting from their lopsided defeat on Friday.
The Opals lost the physical battle against the USA, and I expect Sandy Brondello to have her team fired up to make amends with a better defensive effort here.
This pick also reflects Australia’s somewhat erratic offense. They’ve been held to 70 points or fewer three times at this tournament, including a disastrous 62-point effort against Nigeria in their opening game.
The small spread suggests a close matchup, and that should translate to just enough defense to hit the Under.
Meesseman a magnet for rebounds
My Emma Meesseman prop: Over 9.5 rebounds (+120)
Emma Meesseman has been one of the standout performers at these Olympics, doing it all for this Belgium team. Her scoring has got most of the attention – leading all players in this tournament with 23.4 ppg – but I’m drawn to the Over on her rebounds prop in this bronze medal game.
Meesseman, who plays her club basketball in Turkey for Fenerbahce, pulled down 14 boards in the overtime semifinal loss to France. I see her posting another double-digit tally against Australia.
The Australians were outrebounded 46-34 in their loss to the USA on Friday and could be vulnerable here despite the presence of WNBA pair Ebi Magbegor and Alanna Smith in the frontcourt.
I expect Meesseman to log big minutes with a medal on the line, and that adds value for the Over on all of her props. With the Opals locked in on denying her easy baskets, the Belgian center may do her best work on the glass.
Belgium vs Australia same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 147.5
Australia moneyline
Alanna Smith Over 11.5 points
Australia enter as narrow favorites for this bronze medal game, and I’m trusting in their WNBA core to deliver the goods on Sunday despite the threat posed by a well-balanced Belgium starting five.
The frontcourt tussles will be critical, but the biggest X-factors may be guards Sami Whitcomb and Jade Melbourne, who combined for 33 points in the Opals’ quarterfinal win over Serbia.
I’m also leaning towards Australia’s superior bench depth, with backups Cayla George and Tess Madgen giving Brondello quality minutes. Madgen knocked down two 3-pointers against the Americans as the second unit outscored the starters.
The Alanna Smith props also jumped off the screen. Setting aside the Opals’ offensive dud in the semifinal, Smith has been a huge contributor. I see the Minnesota Lynx forward rising to the moment this weekend.
She poured in 22 points in the quarterfinal to go with 12 points against France and 15 points against Nigeria. In a game that could go down to the wire, Smith’s efficient scoring and ability to knock down 3-pointers stand out in this Australia offense, making her points prop Over at 11.5 an easy choice for my SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Belgium vs Australia odds
| Belgium | Australia | |
| +2.5 (-110) | Spread | -2.5 (-110) |
| +120 | Moneyline | -142 |
| Over 148 (-108) | Total | Under 148 (-112) |
Odds as of 8-10.
Belgium vs Australia game info
| Location: | Bercy Arena, Paris, France |
| Date: | Sunday, 8-11-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 5:45 a.m. ET |
| TV: | USA Network |
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