Belgium vs USA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Women’s Basketball

We see arguably the two greatest Women’s Basketball teams suit up against one another as group play continues this afternoon at the Paris Olympics. 

Team USA, undefeated in Olympic competition since 1996, needs little introduction. Belgium, for its part, is the reigning EuroBasket champion and has one of the best starting fives in the world led by Emma Meesseman.

However, my Belgium vs. USA predictions believe Julie Allemand's absence looms large in this one.

Belgium vs USA prediction

My best bet
USA -22.5 (-110)

There was a point a few weeks ago where it seemed that Belgium might be set up to give Team USA the best challenge of any team in the Olympics. Belgium has a lead star talent in Emma Meesseman, quality point-guard play, and established chemistry from years of competing together in international play. 

The Belgians are riding high after their recent victory over World No.4 Spain at FIBA EuroBasket 2023 and they’ve also played Team USA better than just about any other national team in recent years. It took a last-second tip-in by Breanna Stewart for the USA to snatch victory against Belgium in the Olympic qualifiers in February.

But its chances of upsetting the Americans in Paris took a serious blow when it was announced that starting point guard Julie Allemand would miss the entirety of the Olympics with an undisclosed muscle injury. Allemand has only had a sporadic WNBA career, but she’s one of the engines that makes Belgium go, playing a similar organizing role to Team USA’s Chelsea Gray. 

Seeing the Las Vegas Aces struggle in Gray’s absence is not a bad analogy to what took place as Allemand missed Belgium’s opening game.

Belgium badly missed her against Germany. Belgium's best trait is typically its passing, with surplus passers at every position except small forward. But with Allemand out of the lineup, the Belgians have to lean on playmaking by Julie Vanloo and others out of necessity rather than as a source of strength, which also means the pair is acting less as play finishers.

Belgium typically gets great looks, with passing being one of the team's strengths. But it struggled to find easy ones against Germany and nobody outside of Meesseman established any kind of rhythm on offense.

Team USA’s talent is a known quantity. It’s easier for oddsmakers to predict how they’ll play than it is for their opponents. The loss of Allemand is a blow for Belgium bigger than her box score contributions (which are notable) suggest and one that I think oddsmakers are underestimating. I believe it tips a contest that might have held some intrigue into a comfortable win for the American side

Stewart slays

My Breanna Stewart prop: Over 16.5 points (-115)

Team USA is known for its depth of star talent, but its top two talents truly make the Americans unfair. There is nobody on planet Earth right now who can defend A’ja Wilson, and one of the only players who can give it a real shot happens to be her star teammate on Team USA, Breanna Stewart. 

Each is a nightmare matchup for any team. Paired together as the starting forwards for the Americans makes them unstoppable.

While A’ja dominates inside with a shot profile closer to a modern big, Stewie slinks around screens and scores more like a wing despite being just as tall as A’ja at 6-foot-4.

A’ja is going to be top of the scouting report for every team during the Olympics, which means Stewart will be attacking one-on-one, without fear of double teams, which never happens. 

She showed out against Japan too, going 11-for-15 from the field for 22 points. Some books are pricing this prop as high as 18.5 points but hunt around and you’ll find it listed where I’m taking it at 16.5, which is incredible value.

Belgium vs USA same-game parlay (SGP)

Belgium’s star Emma Meesseman will be familiar to WNBA fans. She was the do-it-all forward that helped the Washington Mystics win the championship in 2019. She’s been playing for Turkish powerhouse Fenerbahçe since, but she’s no less a force to be reckoned with than when she made the WNBA All-Star team in 2022.

Meesseman is an incredible passer for her size, a sound defensive player, a good rebounder, and when called upon, a superb scorer. 

She’s a super utility player when playing next to other stars, but she’s comfortable as the primary scorer for Belgium too. While almost nothing went right for Belgium against Germany, she still put together 25 points on 10-for-15 from the field.

It’s hard to nitpick anything that Team USA has done wrong so far but if there are questions, they are with its defense.

The Americans were blitzed inside during their last game and have struggled to contain Belgium in the paint in the recent past. Team USA also plays some of its best rim protectors more as perimeter players — including Stewie — while asking Brittney Griner to get out on the floor when Meesseman catches the ball on the move to shoot a pull-up is a tall order.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Belgium vs USA odds

Odds as of 8-1.

Belgium vs USA game info

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