After a disappointing loss to Qinwen Zheng in the semifinals of the Olympics, Iga Swiatek will look to salvage something from her trip to Paris in Friday’s bronze-medal match at Roland Garros.
Appearing for the first time in a medal match of any kind, Swiatek has an opportunity to rebound from defeat quickly against a player who may be in over her head in Anna Schmiedlova. Can she capitalize on the matchup and medal for the first time in her illustrious career?
Let’s break it all down in our Swiatek vs. Schmiedlova predictions and free betting picks for the 2024 Paris Olympics.
Swiatek vs Schmiedlova prediction and best bet
- My match prediction
Iga Swiatek moneyline (-5,000) - My best bet
Over 16.5 games (-120)
Match analysis
This is a massive mismatch on paper between Schmiedlova — a player 16-9 on clay this season and 47-33 for the last three seasons — and a player who’s been beaten just five times on this surface over that same span.
Swiatek may be struggling to produce a consistent serve, but she's more than accurate enough from the baseline to hit through a defensive-minded opponent like Schmiedlova. The Slovak should eventually struggle against a dominant return and superior baseliner and fall short of a medal at these games.
I’m not also entirely out on Iga here in Paris just because of a shock loss in the semis; she wound up falling to a capable opponent who was serving big and landing balls deep in the court. Qinwen Zheng is one of the best in the world and earned that moniker on Thursday.
Swiatek may not have the easiest time in a first-ever encounter but I do expect her to emerge with the win.
Best best analysis
I’m pulling the trigger on this bet in this final. Swiatek may be running incredibly hot on clay once again this season, but in recent matches, she struggled to put away Xiyu Wang and Danielle Collins before falling to Zheng.
Swiatek failed to serve with consistency in these matches, and as a result, she wound up playing a tight 6-3, 6-4 match with Wang before going three with Collins and losing in two on Thursday.
With that, she should find herself down a break at least once in this match and be forced to claw back into the set. Schmiedlova is an excellent returner and baseliner, so she should be well-equipped to exploit any issues on the Swiatek serve.
Schmiedlova performed rather well against a massive Donna Vekic serve in the semifinals before fading in the second set, and all it takes here is a similarly competitive set from the World No. 67 to get us in the conversation to cash this low total.
I think there’s merit in fading the version of Swiatek we’ve seen here in Paris in favor of a hungry player who may be playing her best tennis at the right time.
Swiatek vs Schmiedlova odds
| Iga Swiatek | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | |
|---|---|---|
| -3,300 | Moneyline | +1,400 |
| -7.5 (-110) | Game spread | +7.5 (-125) |
| Over 16.5 (-138) | Total games | Under 16.5 (+100) |
Odds as of 8-1.
Not intended for use in MA.
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