American Taylor Fritz is seeking to become the first American man since 2003 to win the US Open, but he faces a stiff test on Sunday against heavy US Open odds favourite Jannik Sinner.
Sinner is the heavy favourite, and my Taylor Fritz vs. Jannik Sinner predictions expect the American dream to come crashing down tomorrow.
Fritz vs Sinner prediction and best bet
- My match prediction
Jannik Sinner ML (-365 at Pinnacle) - My best bet
Sinner ML and both players to win a set (+118 at FanDuel)
Match analysis
Jannik Sinner has been the man to beat this entire season.
It’s obvious why he is nearly a 4:1 betting favorite to defeat Taylor Fritz. He’s won almost all the major hardcourt titles this season (Australian Open, Miami, and Cincinnati) and now finds himself one victory away from his second Grand Slam title of 2024.
He’s amassed the second-most hardcourt wins this year by winning a tour-leading 91.5% of his service games. He’s fired 54 aces during this event, and his groundstrokes and return game has been money.
Fritz fought through a hard draw, but his serve and return game were stellar when it mattered most. He’s fired 75 missiles for aces during this fortnight, and his big forehand is largely responsible for winning 25 break points. Still, the guy on the other side of the net is the bigger, better hitter from both wings, as evidenced by winning a tourney-leading 34 breakpoints.
Sinner has dominated on the hard stuff this season, and I’m going with Sinner to hoist his first US Open title in front of a sour American crowd.
Best best analysis
I like Sinner hoisting the trophy, but Fritz is a tough customer, and he could win at least one set off the heavily favored World No. 1.
Fritz had to beat two former finalists and a two-time semifinalist in succession just to reach this point. It wasn’t always pretty, but he knows how to bear down when it matters most and has found a way to get over the mental lapses and finish strongly.
The American has also won 81% of his first service points. Sinner has a big return game, but he hasn’t seen a bigger or more consistent surf and turf combo during this fortnight than what he will see from the Fritz racquet on Sunday.
There’s also the matter of the crowd. Sinner might be the heavy-betting favorite but he won’t be their favorite. The Arthur Ashe bunch fueled Frances Tiafoe for nearly four sets, but you can bet money that 99% of them are backing Fritz, and he could easily snatch at least one set behind his monster serve and that crowd.
I chose “Sinner to win and both players to win a set” as my best bet because there’s a 77% implied probability of Sinner winning this match, but with the way Fritz has played this season, it would be a sin for him not to win at least one set.
He’s earned the right to be here and a 1-1 lifetime mark against the Italian. Fritz won’t likely win, but there’s good value in a wager with a 45% implied probability, and I like the American to win at least one set.
Fritz vs Sinner odds
| (1) Jannik Sinner | (2) Taylor Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| -350 | Moneyline | +285 |
| -4.5 (-125) | Game spread | +4.5 (+100) |
| Over 39.5 (-110) | Total games | Under 39.5 (-120) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on 9-7-24.
Not intended for use in MA.
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