The women’s semifinals will take center stage on Thursday night at the Australian Open, and to get things started we’ll be treated to a spicy match between the defending champion and a trendy challenger looking for a first-ever Grand Slam final.
Aryna Sabalenka has worked her way through the draw quite easily to improve to 10-0 on the year, but the run from Paula Badosa has arguably been even more impressive which is why my Sabalenka vs. Badosa predictions have Badosa keeping this one close.
Join me as I break down the Australian Open odds and offer my free betting picks for this AO semifinal clash on Thursday, January 23.
Sabalenka vs Badosa prediction and best bet
- My match prediction
Badosa moneyline (+250 at DraftKings) - My best bet
Badosa +4.5 Games (-135 at DraftKings)
Match analysis
It’s hard to say anything inherently negative about Sabalenka, who has dropped just one set on her way to the semifinals. With that said, the road certainly has become a bit more arduous in recent matches with a flat couple of sets against Clara Tauson in the third round and a three-set battle with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the quarters.
The World No. 1 did serve a solid 69% in that win, and for her last three matches, she has landed more than 70%. That’s the weapon that’s sure to give Badosa the most problems, but the Spaniard has exhibited some excellent returning skills up to and including her win over Coco Gauff.
The American’s serve has been tough to get a racquet on this season, but Badosa was able to get enough back to bring up 10 breakpoints, winning six games on the Gauff serve.
Simply put, that match is a good indicator of how the meeting with Sabalenka will go. Badosa withstood 31 winners from Gauff, drawing 41 unforced errors, and her ability to hang around in rallies with her speed was a massive reason as to why she came out on top.
Sabalenka may be a better version of the offensive-minded Gauff, but as a similar opponent, I do think she may fall victim to the same tactics that got Badosa here in the first place.
Best best analysis
The best way to play this one is surely the games here with Badosa. She’s played some very close sets against Sabalenka in the past, even defeating her twice. The last match they played involved a 12-game first set, and they’ve also played a number of tiebreakers over the years.
The key in this match is that the courts at Melbourne Park have been playing incredibly slowly. This match should almost mirror one played on the clay, and that is where Badosa has been able to have the most success in her career – and Sabalenka’s worst surface.
Sabalenka was able to hit through every one of her opponents in the last two Australian Opens, but this one has already been a little different. Holding serve hasn’t always been easy, and against Badosa and her return, it won’t get much easier.
I’m a little hesitant to back Badosa to take a set here, but I expect a very close match if she doesn’t wind up stunning the Belarusian.
Sabalenka vs Badosa odds
| (1) Aryna Sabalenka | (11) Paula Badosa | |
|---|---|---|
| -300 | Moneyline | +230 |
| -3.5 (-140) | Game spread | +3.5 (+105) |
| Over 21.5 (-120) | Total games | Under 21.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on January 22, 2025.
How to watch Sabalenka vs Badosa
| Location | Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne, AU |
| Date | Thursday, 1-23-2025 |
| Time | 3:00 a.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Not intended for use in MA.
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