Sabalenka vs Keys Predictions, Picks & Odds for the Australian Open Final

American Madison Keys is back into a Grand Slam final for the first time in nearly eight years. She’ll look to exorcise her demons and break through for the very first time at 29 years of age vs. Aryna Sabalenka, the woman who kept her out of the 2023 US Open Final.

Will this be another ho-hum final for Sabalenka, who’s in pursuit of a third consecutive Australian Open odds score, or might this one have an unexpected twist?

Let’s break it all down in our Sabalenka vs. Keys predictions and free betting picks for January 25.

Sabalenka vs Keys prediction and best bet

• My match prediction
  Madison Keys moneyline (+275 at bet365)
  
  
• My best bet
  Madison Keys Over 2.5 service breaks (+125 at DraftKings)

Match analysis

It’s incredibly hard to bet against the defending champion and World No. 1, but that’s what we’re faced with as we wrap up the Australian Open. With that said, there is plenty of reason to believe that Madison Keys can pull this off.

The American has gone just 1-4 against Aryna Sabalenka in her career, but did appear on the precipice of a breakthrough in that aforementioned 2023 US Open semifinal. She stunned Sabalenka with a first-set bagel before twice grabbing a break lead in the second set and taking a 4-2 lead in the third set and falling in a deciding tiebreaker.

This would seem to be the best chance Keys will ever have of toppling the World No. 1. She’s looked exceptional this season, going 13-1 through four weeks of play and capturing a title over fellow countrywoman Jessica Pegula in Adelade. She came through an absolutely loaded draw with wins over Beatriz Haddad Maia, Jelena Ostapenko, Daria Kasatkina, and Liudmila Samsonova, and this run in Melbourne hasn’t been any easier.

Keys has continued to produce the level of her life, surviving a barrage of winners and big serves from Elena Rybakina and Elina Svitolina before winning the battle from the back of the court against Iga Swiatek in the semifinals.

She’s improved by leaps and bounds on return this season, which says a lot given the competition, and her serve has been among the deadliest in the world. The 29-year-old has coupled that by remaining steady enough from the baseline to allow her winner count to devastate her competition.

Sabalenka’s ideal opponent is one who plays passive tennis and allows her to come inside the baseline to play offense, and Keys couldn’t be any different. We’ve seen many times in the battles between these foes that the American can take the racquet out of her opponents’ hands, even against the biggest power players in the world.

These courts in Melbourne are playing significantly slower than in years’ past, and that’s made Sabalenka look just a shade less dominant. I expect a very tight match, and couldn’t disagree more with this price.

Best best analysis

Keys has won 3.3 points per return game this season to rank eighth on tour, something that’s of great note here after finishing 27th in that category a year ago. She’s breaking at nearly a 43% clip, up 12 points from a year ago. Even if that number comes back down to Earth as we play more tennis, it’s become clear that this improvement on return is the biggest reason why she’s been so tough to beat in 2025.

With that in mind, it’s hard to understand why oddsmakers are so cool on Keys making headway on the Sabalenka serve. She brought about 16 break points on the Swiatek serve in the semifinals, converting eight times. Even against Svitolina and Rybakina, she was able to find nine break chances in each match, converting a total of seven times.

Keys should have a good read on the Sabalenka serve, considering she broke three times in the first set of their US Open semi. While she went 0-for-2 on break chances against Sabalenka in Beijing, she had to deal with very fast court speeds, which won’t mirror the conditions on Saturday evening in Melbourne.

This should be, hands down, the best way to play this match.

Sabalenka vs Keys odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on 1-24.

How to watch Sabalenka vs Keys

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