The first semifinal of the week in the 2024 Women’s Olympics singles draw will take place on Thursday between Iga Swiatek and Qinwen Zheng.
Switake is now a four-time winner at Roland Garros and has lost just one match in her last five trips to the grounds. Meanwhile, Zheng has catapulted to No. 7 in the world, tearing through the competition on the clay this season.
Let's delve further into this matchup with our Swiatek vs Zheng predictions and free picks for August 1.
Swiatek vs Zheng prediction and best bet
- My match prediction
Swiatek (-900) - My best bet
Over 18.5 games (-135)
Match analysis
In the same way that you can say this is familiar territory for Swiatek, it’s equal parts unfamiliar. Yes, she’s been the Queen of Roland Garros and the single most dominant player in the world on clay courts over the last five years, but Swiatek had never advanced into the quarterfinal stage of the Olympics prior to this season.
It doesn’t appear that Swiatek’s had her top form here in Paris, either. She was tested a bit by Xiyu Wang in the fourth round prior to going three sets with Danielle Collins on Wednesday, perhaps falling victim to hot conditions along the way.
Regardless, this is a match she should and will win. Swiatek is now 6-0 against Zheng after taking her out in Dubai earlier this season, and she has dropped just one set in their previous four encounters. They’ve played twice on clay, and after their very first set which went 7-6 to Zheng at the 2022 French Oen, the Chinese No. 1 has won just seven games in the following four on this surface.
Zheng has had an impressive clay season but it remains true that a quicker court will better suit her game, which is built off power and broken down by long rallies. I’m not confident it will be a blowout, but it’s hard to see Zheng sustaining the level required to beat Swiatek for two hours or more.
Best best analysis
This has been a very lopsided head-to-head, but Zheng is a player who’s seemingly improved with each month over the last year or so. She’s pieced together a 15-4 record now on clay and has gone to battle in recent rounds with incredibly tough players in Angie Kerber and Emma Navarro.
Zheng’s been resilient, and her serve has remained strong even on the dirt. Swiatek, meanwhile, has made a habit of falling behind in sets of late and hasn’t exhibited the same sort of dominance in her own serve.
Should Swiatek slip up and fall behind by a break, it’s likely going to take her a bit of time to claw back into a set or the match as a whole with how solid Zheng has delivered her serve. The gap between these two has also closed ever so slightly after a competitive second set in Stuttgart late last year on clay, a three-set affair in Cincinnati, and two matches on hard courts this year, which lasted a respectable 17 games.
The total’s set a bit ahead of those recent matches, but it’s with good reason. Swiatek simply doesn’t have her very best right now and Zheng is continuing to hit through some incredible defenders, which should have her ready to keep this one competitive.
Swiatek vs Zheng odds
| (1) Iga Swiatek | (7) Qinwen Zheng | |
|---|---|---|
| -900 | Moneyline | +500 |
| -5.5 (-130) | Spread | +5.5 (+100) |
| Over 18.5 (-135) | Total games | Under 18.5 (+110) |
Odds as of 7-31.
Not intended for use in MA.
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