The top two women’s soccer teams in Group B will meet in the Paris Olympics this afternoon when Team USA square off against Germany in Marseille.
Both sides rolled out 3-0 winners on Thursday, but my USA vs. Germany predictions expect this game to end in a stalemate. Find out more in my Olympic women's soccer picks for July 28.
USA vs. Germany prediction and best bet
Matching blow for blow
Match prediction
Draw (+235)
My analysis
The USWNT could’ve easily been ahead of Zambia 3-0 inside of 10 minutes if not for numerous wasted chances. They attempted 27 shots on the day, but in the opening stages, they hit the bar twice and missed two terrific chances.
As it was, Trinity Rodman broke the deadlock after 17 minutes with an outstanding first-touch turn and finish, and Mallory Swanson broke the match open with two goals inside a minute shortly thereafter.
A red card for Zambia just after the half-hour mark ended all hopes for the underdogs, but they managed to keep the USWNT off the scoresheet for the remainder of the match. The wasted chances continued to be a theme in the second half, although Emma Hayes’ side did take their foot off the gas at times. The Americans ended up with just three goals from nine big chances.
Their opponent on Sunday won’t be as forgiving of missed opportunities. Germany rolled over an Australian side missing Sam Kerr, converting three of their five big chances. They jumped in front after 24 minutes before a pair of goals four minutes apart just past the hour mark secured all three points.
Germany don't have the depth of talent their opponents do, but they’re an experienced side in good form. They’ve won 11 of their last 14 competitive matches and managed at least three goals in six of seven outings.
The USWNT have yet to concede a goal since Hayes took over, but they’ve also not faced a side of this caliber. Germany also know a draw suits them just fine here, as they’ve still got Zambia to come — while the Americans will have to face Australia.
This should be a cagey affair, and Hayes is very big on staying stout at the back. Her side has been wasting opportunities coming into the tournament, and they’ll rue it here against a strong German defense.
The Americans should win, but I’ll take the value that comes along with the draw here.
Unique header about best bet
My best bet
Over 2.5 goals (-110)
My analysis
My initial read on this match was Under 2.5, especially with how wasteful the Americans were against Zambia. But the more I looked into Germany, the more I swung the other way on the total and my best bet.
The Germans generate quite a few scoring chances, even against the best teams in the world. They put 14 shots on goal across two Euro qualifiers against Austria — the 17th-ranked nation in the world — and tested the keeper 13 times in two outings against 14th-ranked Iceland.
Their match against Australia marked the seventh-straight fixture in which Germany have been involved in a high-scoring affair. All seven of those matches have seen three or more goals scored, with four or more being tallied on six occasions.
But despite overwhelming their opponents at times, they can't keep their net empty. The shutout against Australia gave them two in a row, but prior to that, they’d conceded in five straight despite allowing a combined 16 shots on goal in that span.
The Americans might not be as lethal as they should be, but creating chances isn’t something they struggle with. Sophia Smith is expected to be available after an injury scare, and the front line of her, Swanson, and Rodman are as dangerous as they come.
Germany’s defense will face a much tougher test than in recent matches, and the attacking talent on both sides is outstanding. Young midfielder Jule Brand and forward Lea Schuller are threats the Americans must deal with on the counter, while veteran Alexandra Popp is always a threat in the air.
There should be plenty of goal-scoring chances here, and I’m projecting a 2-2 final score. That’s more than enough for me to back the Over in what should be an enthralling fixture.
USA vs Germany odds
- Moneyline: USA +125 | Germany +200 | Draw +235
- Total: Over 2.5 (-112) | Under 2.5 (-112)
USA vs Germany game info
| Location: | Orange Velodrome, Marseille, France |
| Date: | Sunday, 7-28-2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA |
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