Thursday’s Premier League action features two of the division's most entertaining teams, Bournemouth and Tottenham Hotspur, clashing under the Vitality Stadium's floodlights.
Spurs have produced some great moments in this campaign, but for every high, there’s been a low. They’re riddled with inconsistency, which is why our Bournemouth vs. Tottenham Hotspur predictions have a very good Bournemouth team creating an upset.
Be sure to read my Premier League picks for Thursday, December 5, with kickoff at 3:15 p.m. ET on the USA Network.
EPL predictions for Bournemouth vs Tottenham
My best bet:
Bournemouth moneyline (+165 at TonyBet)
My analysis
When it comes to entertaining teams in the Premier League there aren’t many clubs who are offering more than Bournemouth or Tottenham. Spurs’ manager Ange Postecoglou came to the Premier League with a reputation for an attacking style and he’s stuck to his principles, for better or for worse. However, the biggest surprise has been Bournemouth, who under Andoni Iraola look good.
Our pick for this game is Bournemouth to win but we’re going to break it down in two parts. Why Spurs are not a good bet, and then why Bournemouth are.
Firstly, Spurs. We spoke above about Postecoglou’s defiant attitude to his playing style and it’s both one of his strongest qualities but also the one that is likely to lead to him being sacked in the next 18 months. Spurs have become the most inconsistent team in the Premier League in terms of the huge difference between their best and worst performances. Their three games in November were indicative of that. They thrashed Aston Villa 4-1 and beat the reigning champions Man City 4-0 away from home, two incredible results sandwiched either side of an embarrassing 2-1 home defeat to Ipswich. Spurs have had back-to-back wins just once all season at the end of September.
They came into this midweek period six places better off than Bournemouth but with just two points between them, it feels like a false position. When Spurs are good, they are really exceptional, they lead the Premier League in goals scored but while they generally outplay teams, they show tactical naivety and too often they fail to kill off games that they’re controlling. It makes them hugely fun to watch, and the supporters love Postecoglou for such a watchable team, but the reality is that they won’t even succeed outside of a cup competition, with such an inconsistent style.
This Bournemouth side are consistent whether they’re home or away. They came into the week ranked 10th both home and away, a sharp contrast to Spurs who are fourth in the home table but 12th on the road. Bournemouth have lost as many games as Spurs and in truth, their points total is far better than it arguably should be.
If you look at xG (Expected Goals) then you’ll see Bournemouth are currently 6.25 goals below what would be expected given the quality of the positions that they’ve been finding themselves in. That’s the third biggest negative discrepancy, with only Southampton and Crystal Palace worse off. They currently sit on 18 points but in terms of expected points, from games that would have had their results altered if the expected goals had gone in, then they’d be third in the Premier League table. This is a team who have been unfortunate both in terms of xG and also in terms of some refereeing decisions, in particular, Newcastle escaping the Vitality with a draw in late August.
The Premier League table doesn’t always tell the truth and the data shows that Bournemouth are a far superior team to what is displayed in the points column on the table. Add in that quality and a Tottenham team who are struggling to maintain consistency and we have the right ingredients for an upset with the home victory.
Bournemouth vs Tottenham same-game parlay (SGP)
Bournemouth moneyline
Correct score: 1-1 at half time
Over 9.5 corners
Start with our best bet above and then add 1-1 to be the correct score at halftime. This sounds very specific but for good reason. Bournemouth have only been losing at halftime once in six home games, while Spurs have only been losing twice in their six games on the road. Spurs are averaging one goal per first half in those contests, and Bournemouth have five goals in six. A score draw at the half is a strong possibility.
We’re also taking Over 9.5 total corners. The home side are averaging 10.3 corners per game in the Premier League, while Spurs have 12.8 per game, the highest in the whole division. With both teams being good going forward, we should see plenty of attacking play and corners.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Bournemouth vs Tottenham odds
Bournemouth vs Tottenham live odds
Bournemouth vs Tottenham opening odds
- Moneyline: Bournemouth +165 | Tottenham +146
- Draw: +290
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-228) | Under 2.5 (+190)
Bournemouth vs Tottenham side and Over/Under analysis
- Both Bournemouth and Spurs have won two of their past four games.
- Bournemouth have won half of their home games.
- 53.8% of Bournemouth’s games have had Over 2.5 goals.
- All but four of Spurs’ games have had Over 2.5 goals.
Bournemouth vs Tottenham game info
| Location: | Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, England |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-5-2024 |
| Time: | 3:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA Network |
| Weather: | Partly cloudy. |
 recent EPL form |
W-L-L-W-D |
 recent EPL form |
D-W-L-W-L |
Bournemouth vs Tottenham key injuries
Bournemouth: Alex Scott CM (Out), Luis Sinisterra LW (Out), Julian Araujo RB (Out), Lewis Cook CM (Questionable).
Tottenham: Micky can de Ven DEF (Out), Wilson Odobert FWR (Out), Richarlison STR (Out), Mikey Moore FWR (Out), Guglielmo Vicario GK (Out), Rodrigo Bentancur CM (Out), Dominic Solake STR (Questionable), Cristian Romero CB (Questionable), Archie Gray DEF (Questionable).
Not intended for use in MA.
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