The PLAYERS Championship Picks, Props, & Matchup Best Bets: Handicapping the 'Fifth Major'

The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass is shaping up to be a wild ride through the weekend. As always, it’s a stacked field for the ‘fifth major’ and we may have the added intrigue of nasty weather.

Will the conditions open the door for longshots or will the cream rise to the top as it did for Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy the last two times out?

Let’s look at the numbers and find the best values on the board for head-to-head matchups and top finishers for The PLAYERS Championship odds.

Editor's note: Weather suspension on Thursday has caused tee time delays for all afternoon groupings. Some afternoon groups may not begin Round 1 until Friday.

The PLAYERS Championship picks

• Oosthuizen (-110) over Johnson
• Lee (-110) over Watson
• Fitzpatrick (-120) over Garcia
• Corey Conners Top 20 (+240)
• Brian Harman Top 20 (+450)
• Dylan Frittelli Top 20 (+1,000)

Picks made on 3/8/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

TPC Sawgrass stats that matter

It takes a complete game with no holes in the boat to win The PLAYERS which makes recent form extra-important this week. Who’s been consistent off the tee, hitting their approaches close, and scrambling their butt off when they miss?

Then there’s the putting. Sawgrass has Florida TifEagle Bermuda greens that are small with landing areas that can be hard to hit, especially in the wind. They are seventh-most difficult for putting on Tour, so we’ll pay attention to Bermuda putting stats and put even more emphasis on around the greens play due to the weather forecast. Those who make it to the weekend could face gusting winds, rain on Saturday morning, and temperatures that will feel in the 40s. So, let’s find some grinders! 

• Scrambling, around the greens play.
• Recent overall form.
• Driving accuracy.
• Bermuda putting.
• Pete Dye course history.
• Tournament history.

The PLAYERS Championship matchup predictions

Louis Oosthuizen (-110) over Dustin Johnson

We don’t make a habit of betting against Dustin Johnson but even at the height of his powers, DJ’s best finish at the Players was fifth in 2019. Now he comes in looking very average over his last three events including a ho-hum missed cut at the Genesis. 

Over the last 36 rounds, Louis ranks 22nd in good drives and 21st in fairways hit vs. DJ who is near 70th in those two driving stats. Louis is also hitting a lot more greens in regulation, likely as a result of that good driving.  We also like Louis’ game and level of motivation more if the conditions are nasty. 

KH Lee (-110) over Bubba Watson

This just isn’t set up for Bubba to succeed with his usual high-wire act. The wind will make it hard for him to work the ball and he will find himself in a lot of difficult positions around the greens.

Lee has much better recent scrambling numbers vs. Bubba and he’s also hitting more than twice as many fairways. He also finished 41st at The PLAYERS as a debutant in 2021 while Bubba has only broken the Top 40 once in his last eight appearances here.

Matt Fitzpatrick (-120) over Sergio Garcia

Sergio is on a nice run with two Top-40 finishes at Genesis and API, but Fitzpatrick is playing much better and has a better game for the potentially nasty weather. Garcia lost five shots on approach at Bay Hill but saved himself by gaining five with the putter. He hasn’t gained on approach since October and July was the last time he gained more than two shots with his irons.

Over his last 12 rounds, Fitzpatrick is fourth in scrambling vs. this field, 16th in fairways gained and Top 25 in proximity from 100-150 yards, a key approach range this week. 

The PLAYERS Championship top finisher predictions

Corey Conners Top 20 (+240)

Conners is typically a great ball striker and he just gained almost four shots on approach and 11.3 strokes tee to green at API, bouncing back from a bad week at the Genesis. Conners also scrambled very effectively at Bay Hill. We won’t call him a Pete Dye specialist but he does rank fourth in the field in approach and 25th in proximity to the hole vs. this field over the last 36 rounds at Dye courses. Four of those rounds were at the 2021 PLAYERS where Conners gained 3.5 with the flat stick and finished seventh.

Brian Harman Top 20 (+450)

We’re taking a good look at Pete Dye course history this week and Harman is the ultimate Dye historian. He leads the field with 134 Tour rounds played at Dye courses. He’s also got Top-10s in each of the last two PLAYERS Championships.  =

Can Harman handle the extra difficult conditions this week? We think so. Over his last 50 rounds played in difficult scoring conditions, he ranks 30th in the field in total strokes gained, 13th in overall short game and 10th around the greens. 

Dylan Frittelli Top 20 (+1,000)

Dylan had a 22nd-place finish at The PLAYERS last year despite some terrible putting. He was in much worse form then and had missed five of seven cuts. This year, he comes in off of three made cuts including 16th at Honda and 42nd last week at API. What’s great to see is that his putting numbers are trending upward as are his stats around the green. The big payout here might have something to do with his recent driving accuracy issues, but we’re betting he will improve enough off-the-tee this week for a great finish. 

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