That thud you just heard was Joe Biden's Democratic nominee odds falling like a stone.
The US President is now mere points ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris on the odds board for the first time in 2024. It's a shocking development considering "Sleepy Joe" was the odds-on favorite to secure his party's nomination at -500 as recently as March.
At the time, Harris was a distant fourth at +1,200 behind California Governor Gavin Newsom (+900) and Former First Lady Michelle Obama (+1,000), both of whom insist they have no interest in securing the position.
2024 presidential election Democratic candidate odds
| Nomination Winner |  |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | +137 | 42.2% |
| Kamala Harris | +150 | 40% |
| Gavin Newsom | +700 | 12.5% |
| Michelle Obama | +900 | 10% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +1,000 | 9.1% |
| Hillary Clinton | +2,000 | 4.8% |
| Robert Kennedy Jr. | +5,000 | 2% |
| Pete Buttigieg | +12,500 | 0.8% |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of July 3, 2024.
There's no debating what caused Biden's drop
So, what exactly happened to derail Biden's nomination bid? Two words: the debate. The President's age and mental acuity were badly exposed on June 27 when he went head to head with Donald Trump in a debate televised on CNN. The 81-year-old POTUS appeared genuinely lost for words at times and had to be helped off the stage at the end of the evening by his wife, Jill.
Who won the debate?
— EvanLuthra.eth (@EvanLuthra) June 28, 2024
Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
pic.twitter.com/zcgMUmKpNl
Biden admitted afterwards to having a "bad night" and blamed his lack of focus on fatigue from his busy travel schedule. Regardless, his abysmal performance sent immediate shockwaves around the nation and prompted calls from both side of the aisles for Biden to step down in favor of a younger and more exuberant candidate.
Democratic candidate odds over time
Just Biden her time
Biden's precipitous fall from grace has been a rude awakening for many within the party and has prompted an immediate Plan B. The Independent is reporting that staffers working on Biden's re-election campaign are switching gears and are now preparing to elevate Harris to "the top of the ticket."
Speaking on condition of anonymity, an insider confirmed to the publication that's it's no longer a matter of if Biden steps down, but when. It's "just about how it happens" the source confided.
Harris' ascension has also had a dramatic impact on odds relating to the gender of the next US president. The odds of a male taking the top job in the nation have moved from -2,000 to -450 in the last 24 hours. Conversely, the odds of a female moving into the Oval Office have moved from +800 to +300 in the same span. Those numbers account for the possibility of potential Democratic candidates such as Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton and Gretchen Whitmer, as well as Republican dark horse candidate Nikki Haley.
Gender of next presidential election winner
| Gender | |
Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Male | -450 | 81.8% |
| Female | +300 | 25% |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of July 3, 2024.
Biden's resolve remains strong
For his part, Biden doesn't appear ready to go gently into the good night. The BBC is reporting the President met with a dozen senior congressional leaders on the morning of July 3 to assure them he intends to stay in the race.
Although his intentions remain clear, it's fair to speculate whether Biden's health and failing poll numbers will allow him to fulfill his vision.
The 2024 Democratic National Convention is scheduled to take place in Chicago from August 19 to 22. Expect plenty of odds movement leading up to the eagerly anticipated event.
