Stick-and-ball sports bettors may be accustomed to early and quick payouts on, say, the NFL. That won’t be the case on Election Night.
No, anyone with money riding on the U.S. presidential election this year will likely be waiting hours, days, or weeks before their wagers get settled by sportsbook operators or betting exchanges.
It all depends on where you’ve wagered, as the rules can vary. But, barring a quick concession from either candidate — and that seems particularly unlikely to come from Republican Donald Trump, who is still disputing the results of the 2020 election — you could be waiting some time.
It might be worthwhile for U.S. election bettors to peruse the various rules. Depending on where you wager, you could know Election Night or you could be waiting until Inauguration Day.
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) October 28, 2024
Rules below are for bet365 and FanDuel (in Ontario) and for Kalshi and PredictIt (in the US) pic.twitter.com/L5DJ59mri5
Kalshi, a hotbed for de facto political wagering following a recent court ruling, says its presidential election-related contracts will settle when someone is inaugurated as commander-in-chief for the term starting Jan. 20, 2025. That could mean no bets are settled until Jan. 20, the scheduled date for the next presidential inauguration.
"If Donald Trump or another representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes," Kalshi says for one of its contracts. "Outcome verified from Office of the Presidency."
PredictIt users won't have to wait as long, but the "experimental" prediction market will require the Electoral College to vote before its contracts are graded. The Electoral College will meet to vote on Dec. 17.
However, PredictIt also requires a candidate to receive a majority of Electoral College votes, and if no one does, then all of its contracts are settled as "no."
Furthermore, PredictIt's terms and conditions give it flexibility in the event of any murkiness about the results.
“PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled,” the operator’s rules state. “Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.”
Kalshi and PredictIt are two of the limited number of options Americans have to legally wager on U.S. election odds. Regulated sportsbooks in the U.S. are prohibited from taking bets on the election.
Still, what the two sites say about the rules for settling political wagers makes it clear there will be no hasty settlements. Both operators will give the process time to play out.
Give us a minute, eh
In Ontario, several sportsbooks that operate stateside are available and taking action in the Canadian province on the presidential election, something they don’t do in the U.S. itself. The rules for those operators allow for flexibility as well.
At bet365, for instance, U.S. election bets will be settled “on the winner of the election and not on the person who is inaugurated.”
Covers asked bet365 to clarify what the above means. An answer was not given before this story was published, but we will update this article accordingly when a response is received.
DraftKings is relatively straightforward as to how it will settle presidential election wagers, saying on its Ontario bet slips that it will make a ruling "once the winner has been declared by The Associated Press."
"No bets voided for reasons of ineligibility, failure to stand, withdrawal, or any other eventuality," the Boston-based operator says in Ontario.
BetMGM, meanwhile, says the winner of its U.S. presidential election bets will be settled “as declared after the General Election for President, allowing for any relevant legal or constitutional challenges.”
“In cases where there is any ambiguity relating to the result, we reserve the right to wait for the outcome of the subsequent electoral college and, if necessary, congressional votes,” the rules state. “If a different individual is later inaugurated as President, that will not count for settlement purposes.”
Admit it
There’s more, but you get the idea: it could take some time, especially if there are challenges to the results reported on Election Night.
FanDuel says in Ontario that its U.S. presidential election bets will be settled “once both the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes.”
But then comes another crucial clause: “If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress.”
That joint session is scheduled for Jan. 6, 2025.
Here are some of the latest odds for the U.S. presidential election in Ontario (where sportsbooks are free to offer such odds).
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) October 28, 2024
Trump is now as short as -213 to win at Betano. The Republican candidate is a pretty solid favorite elsewhere as well. pic.twitter.com/9CZfojjh2b
FanDuel also notes that if there is a “material change” or “any ambiguity” as to who becomes president, it could use “reasonable discretion” to decide how to settle the market based on the information available.
So, in short, it might behoove bettors to read up on the various rules for election wagering before Election Day. It’s been a crazy campaign so far, so who knows what Nov. 5 will bring.
“FanDuel reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled,” the operator’s rules add. “Additional candidates may be added to this market on request. If any candidate withdraws for any reason, including death, all bets on the market will stand.”
