For the second time in a week, AC Milan and Chelsea will do battle on Tuesday night in a pivotal Champions League Group E matchup. After a 3-0 win for the Blues at Stamford Bridge saw them dispatch a heavily-injured Milan side on Wednesday, both teams will need a result in a group that sees just two points separating first from last.
The Rossoneri will be boosted by the return of one of their stars, but will it be enough against a rested Chelsea side? Find out in our AC Milan vs. Chelsea Champions League betting picks and predictions for Tuesday, October 11.
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AC Milan vs Chelsea odds
AC Milan vs Chelsea picks and predictions
Can one player’s return to the team sheet be the difference between losing one week and winning the next? When the player is Theo Hernandez, the answer is most certainly yes. Together with Rafael Leao, Milan’s left side puts fear into defenders as they sprint down the wing. His return to the side on Saturday was key in their 2-0 win over Juventus. He was one of the best players on the pitch as he linked up repeatedly with Leao, who struck the woodwork twice.
While Milan are still missing their starting keeper and their entire right side of defense, they will hope Theo’s return shores up their defensive side as well. Chelsea controlled the matchup as Raheem Sterling and Reece James took turns brutalizing Fode Ballo-Toure on that side of the pitch. James put in the best performance of the match from the right wing-back role, scoring a goal and assisting another.
However, Chelsea may have to switch away from the 3-4-2-1 formation that saw them neutralize Leao and control the match. Centerback Wesley Fofana suffered an injury in the reverse fixture against Milan, and his absence could mean the return to a 4-2-3-1 formation for Graham Potter’s men.
It’s the setup they ran at the weekend, where they rested a large majority of their starters in a 3-0 win over Wolves. While they come into this match refreshed, it’s uncertain if Potter would trust Cesar Azpilicueta or Trevoh Chalobah to fill that same role in a back three.
Milan have dropped points just once at home this season, suffering a 2-1 defeat to Napoli last month. Both sides come into this match with defensive selection concerns, and both will be looking to secure at least a point in order to maintain a chance to win the group should they respectively defeat Salzburg. As such, a draw is the most likely outcome of what is sure to be a cagier affair than the one we saw a week ago.
My best bet: Draw (+240 at bet365)
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AC Milan vs Chelsea side analysis
Milan’s home record this season has been stellar, but Chelsea’s away form has been poor. In Chelsea’s lone Champions League away fixture it fell 1-0 to Dinamo Zagreb, a defeat that lost manager Thomas Tuchel his job. While they’ve won their lone away fixture under Potter, the Blues have lost three of their five in total this season.
Milan will be without Charles De Ketelaere, who was unfortunate to not score just before halftime against Chelsea when Leao made a brilliant run and picked him out in the area. It will also still be without keeper Mike Maignan and defenders Simon Kjaer and Davide Calabria. As for the Blues, they will miss Fofana but also still await the return of N’Golo Kante to training.
History provides little analytical data between these sides. Milan and Chelsea have played three times in the Champions League, and the two previous instances before last Wednesday’s match — albeit back in 1999 — resulted in draws.
AC Milan vs Chelsea Over/Under analysis
Milan’s 2-0 win at the weekend was just the second time in six home matches this season that at least three goals were not scored. Milan have scored multiple goals in five of their six home matches this season while keeping two clean sheets.
Chelsea’s five away matches this season have seen three or more goals scored on three occasions. The Blues have kept just one clean sheet away — a 1-0 win at Everton early in the season — but they’ve now kept consecutive clean sheets at home against Milan and Wolves.
After struggling to finish chances under Tuchel, Chelsea are finding their shooting form under Potter. The Blues have scored in each of his four matches in charge. Aside from being shut out by Chelsea last week, Milan have scored in their other seven matches in the last eight outings.
AC Milan vs Chelsea game info
| Location: | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, Italy |
| Date: | Tuesday, October 11, 2022 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | DAZN |
AC Milan vs Chelsea key injuries
AC Milan: Mike Maignan GK (Out), Simon Kjaer D (Out), Davide Calabria D (Out).
Chelsea: N’Golo Kante M (Out), Wesley Fofana D (Out), Edouard Mendy GK (Doubtful).
AC Milan vs Chelsea weather
Conditions at the San Siro on Tuesday night will be pleasant, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid to low 60s. There is no rain forecasted, and a light breeze should not impact proceedings.
