There’s a brand new format for the Champions League, but the first round of the group stage sees a familiar pair of foes when AC Milan hosts Liverpool at the San Siro Today.
The Rossoneri's right side is a problem the Reds can exploit, which our AC Milan vs Liverpool predictions fully expect.
We’ll target that weakness alongside Liverpool these Champions League picks for Tuesday, September 17.
AC Milan vs Liverpool picks and predictions
My best bet:
Cody Gakpo 1+ shot on goal (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
AC Milan's right side has been an area of weakness this season, which opponents have successfully exploited. Today should be no different, with Liverpool likely to target them down that flank.
Andy Robertson is a solid attacking left back, and either Luis Diaz or Cody Gakpo will line up in front of him. Given how fatigued some Liverpool players looked at the weekend, rotation is expected, which means Gakpo will likely start on the left.
Milan’s first three matches of the season came against Torino, Parma, and Lazio. The Rossoneri surrendered six goals over those three outings, and the left-sided attacker for all three teams managed an effort on goal. The right-back duo of Emerson Royal and Davide Calabria is — to put it nicely — a revolving door for attackers to run through.
Milan didn’t concede this weekend to lowly Venezia, but their 4-0 win was more indicative of their blitzing of the relegation-threatened side than a defensive improvement. Liverpool will present a much tougher opponent.
Before Liverpool’s shocking defeat this weekend to Nottingham Forest, Diaz had scored in two straight matches. Mohamed Salah is playing more of a distributor role this season, and he’ll target Milan’s offensive-minded fullbacks with diagonal passes and crosses to his left flank.
Gakpo’s price of -125 is far too low for a shot on goal, and I’ll happily take it up to -130. Should Diaz go instead, run with him at an even better price of -110 to get a shot on target.
AC Milan vs Liverpool same-game parlay (SGP)
Cody Gakpo 1+ shots on target
Mohamed Salah to score or assist
Andy Robertson 1+ assist
Not only did Milan’s three opponents before Venezia attack down the left, but all three saw their left-sided defender come up with an assist against Milan’s right back. In fact, Lazio got a pair of assists from Nuno Tavares in their 2-2 draw.
Robertson’s a good value here to set up a teammate and continue that trend. Be prepared to swap him out for Kostas Tsimikas should that position see rotation as well.
Theo Hernandez has a bad tendency of pushing forward much too far, and leaving his center backs alone to deal with the counter-attack. Teams have punished the space behind him so far this season, and the Egyptian winger will do the same.
Salah’s already got three goals and three assists through four Premier League matches. He’s the side’s penalty taker, and he will get a goal contribution here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
AC Milan vs Liverpool odds
- Moneyline: AC Milan +260 | Liverpool -110
- Draw: +290
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-188) | Under 2.5 (+150)
AC Milan vs Liverpool side and Over/Under analysis
- Liverpool are minus-odds favorites on the 3-way moneyline, with a price of -105 the best on offer. AC Milan are getting a price of +275 with the draw paying at +280.
- Milan got their first win this weekend, but teams with a pulse in attack have torn them to shreds. They’ll sit back and look to defend more here, but Liverpool should get the victory.
- The Over 2.5 is priced at -169, with the Under getting +138 odds. The Asian total of 3.0 sees both sides priced evenly.
- The markets haven’t adjusted to the difference in how Liverpool plays under Arne Slot vs. their high-risk style under Jurgen Klopp. They’re playing much more methodically in the build-up, and they’re defending extremely well. Milan are likely to try to play compact and counter, which means there’s value on the Under 3.0 Asian line.
AC Milan vs Liverpool game info
| Location: | San Siro Stadium, Milan, Italy |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-17-2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Paramount+ |
| Weather: | Low 60s, small chance of rain |
AC Milan vs Liverpool key injuries
AC Milan: Davide Calabria D (Questionable), Alessandro Florenzi D (Out), Ismael Bennacer M (Out), Malick Thiaw D (Doubtful).
Liverpool: Harvey Elliott M (Out), Federico Chiesa F (Questionable).
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
