Aston Villa hope to gain ground on a European position as they welcome Liverpool to Villa Park today.
The Tractor Boys sit in ninth place but are just five points back of a Europa League bid and have been strong at home all season. The Reds lead the Premier League and look to maintain a seven-point lead on Arsenal by remaining perfect on the road.
Our EPL betting picks and Aston Villa vs Liverpool predictions on Wednesday, February 19 explain why there’s value in the spoils being shared between the two clubs.
Premier League predictions for Aston Villa vs Liverpool
My best bet:
Draw (+300 at TonyBet)
My analysis
Liverpool currently sit atop the Premier League table with a seven-point lead in large part due to their strong road performances this season. They’ve taken 31 of a possible 39 points away from Anfield, outscoring opponents by 20 goals and having yet to taste defeat.
But cracks in the armor have begun to show as Liverpool navigate a congested set of fixtures. In fact, the Reds drew last week at Everton in an emotional Merseyside Derby, with the Toffees equalizing on one of the final touches of the match.
It denied Liverpool the victory, of which they’ve managed just two in their last seven on the road in all competitions. While it’s worth noting that two of those matches — a loss to Plymouth in the FA Cup and a defeat to PSV Eindhoven in the Champions League — came due to heavy rotation.
Before the draw with Everton, Liverpool secured a 2-0 win at Bournemouth. But the hosts created much better chances in the second half and were unlucky not to score. In the match before, the Reds needed two stoppage-time goals from Darwin Nunez to escape with a win. And those outings followed a 1-1 comeback draw at Nottingham Forest.
For all their shaky form this season, Aston Villa have gone 12 unbeaten at home in all competitions. They’ve lost just twice, a season-opening defeat to Arsenal and a 2-1 loss to Crystal Palace in the Carabao Cup in October.
Aston Villa pressure opponents very well, especially at home. And Liverpool has shown that consistent pressure can disrupt their attack.
Wolves prevented them from attempting a single shot in the second half this weekend, something that had never happened at Anfield in recorded history. And Everton outshot them 10-6 in the second half last week.
On the flip side, Aston Villa has been creating loads of chances thanks to the playmaking ability of Jacob Ramsey and Morgan Rogers, while new addition Donyell Malen has added a threat down the right. Unfortunately, they’re not converting those chances regularly.
Liverpool are dealing with both mental and physical fatigue, and Wednesday marks their 14th match in 36 days. With a pivotal match against Manchester City looming at the weekend, Liverpool will be content to simply get a result. Throw in Villa’s struggles to turn opportunities into goals, and a draw being priced at +300 is a value we can’t pass up.
Mohamed Salah props analysis
My best bets:
Mohamed Salah 2+ shots on target (+125 at TonyBet)
Mohamed Salah to record an assist (+270 at TonyBet)
In our preview of Liverpool vs Everton last week, I said to stay away from Mohamed Salah's regular shot prop and instead look at him to get two shots on target and notch an assist. And our analysis was spot on.
Salah managed just two shots on the day, both on target, with one leading to a goal. He also set up Liverpool’s first tally after just 16 minutes, as he found Alexis Mac Allister with an excellent cross.
Against Aston Villa, the approach is similar. I would avoid Salah’s standard shots, with 3+ costing you juice of -173, but I’d look at 2+ shots on target at +125.
Salah is priced at -113 to score, which isn’t terrible considering he’s now tallied in six straight matches across all competitions. He also bagged a goal in their 2-0 win over Villa in November.
But Salah also assisted in that match, and if not for a defender barely touching the ball, he would’ve had an assist for the third straight match against Wolves at the weekend. With odds of +270 to set up a goal here, there’s yet again strong value available.
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Aston Villa vs Liverpool odds
Aston Villa vs Liverpool live odds
Aston Villa vs Liverpool opening odds
- Moneyline: Aston Villa +265 | Liverpool -118
- Draw: +295
- Over/Under: Over 3 (-111)| Under 3 (-114)
Aston Villa vs Liverpool side and Over/Under analysis
- Liverpool are favored on the 3-way money line at -113 to win. Aston Villa are +280 to get the victory, with the draw at +300.
- Liverpool have not lost on the road in the Premier League, while Aston Villa haven’t lost at home since their first home match in August. Liverpool won the reverse fixture 2-0 at Anfield.
- The total sits at an even 3.0 goals, with the Over at -113 and the Under priced at -106.
- Aston Villa’s last two home matches in the league have ended 1-1, while Liverpool’s draw with Everton is their only away match in four to reach 3+ goals.
How to watch Aston Villa vs Liverpool
| Location | Villa Park, Birmingham, England |
| Date | Wednesday, 2-19-2025 |
| Time | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | USA |
| Weather | 47F, 11 mph winds, 35% PoP |
 Recent EPL form |
D-L-D-D-W |
 Recent EPL form |
W-D-W-W-W |
Aston Villa vs Liverpool key injuries
Aston Villa: Boubacar Kamara D (Out), Matty Cash D (Out), Pau Torres D (Out), Amadou Onana M (Out), Leon Bailey F (Doubtful).
Liverpool: Joe Gomez D (Out), Cody Gakpo F (Doubtful).
Not intended for use in MA.
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