Atalanta vs AS Roma Picks and Predictions: Scoring Struggles Continue for La Dea

There is quite a bit more than just three points on the line on Monday when fourth-place Roma travels to seventh-place Atalanta in a pivotal Serie A clash. With Juventus having their 15-point deduction temporarily reversed, the fight for the European spots in the Italian league just got even tighter. 

While Jose Mourinho will know winning Europa League automatically secures a Champions League place for Roma next season, he will want to ensure his side remains in the Top 4 places with a result. Meanwhile, the Juventus news saw Atalanta slide out of a European spot entirely, and with AC Milan sitting four points ahead, a win on Monday is vital.

Will the home side be able to keep within touching distance of the Top 6, or will Roma strengthen their claim on a spot in club football’s biggest competition? Let’s find out in our Atalanta vs Roma picks and predictions for Monday, April 24.

Atalanta vs AS Roma odds

Atalanta vs AS Roma picks and predictions

It’s been a rough few months for Atalanta. The Bergamo-based outfit started the campaign on fire, going unbeaten in their first 10 Serie A matches. After a run of defeats leading up to the World Cup, they came back and pulled off another six-match unbeaten run.

But following a 1-0 Coppa Italia defeat at Inter in late January, things have fallen apart. The loss was the first of six over their last 11 in all competitions, with just three wins in that time frame. Two of those came away from home, as they’ve taken just one victory in their last four matches in front of their fans. And a key reason for that slip is that their goals have dried up. 

Atalanta have been held scoreless six times in that span. That includes twice at home; a scoreless draw with Udinese, and a 2-0 defeat to Bologna in their last home fixture. They scored just once against a mid-table Fiorentina side a week ago, on their only effort on goal.

Roma put three past that same Udinese side last weekend, and have kept a clean sheet in each of their last three Serie A fixtures. And when you look at their last 13 matches in league play, they’ve conceded a total of 10 goals – two of which were scored by Napoli, and four of which came in a 4-3 thriller with Sassuolo. 

Mourinho has his side set up to be pragmatic as always, and their 26 goals conceded are the fourth-fewest behind only Napoli, Lazio, and Juventus. Atalanta have scored a total of six goals over their last seven matches, three of which came against a Cremonese side with the worst defensive record in the league. 

Roma are getting +260 at DraftKings to keep a clean sheet. The implied odds of 27.8% are far too low for me to pass up, given Atalanta’s issues with scoring and Roma’s outstanding defensive acumen of late. Throw in the fact that Mourinho’s side gets an extra day of rest with this match taking place on a Monday, and I am a huge fan of the value with this prop. 

My best bet: Atalanta Under 0.5 goals (+260 at DraftKings)

Atalanta vs AS Roma side analysis

As stated earlier, Atalanta have won just three of their last 10 in Serie A, including only one of four at home. That win came against Empoli, who reside in the lower portion of the table. In their matches against the top clubs of Napoli, AC Milan, Inter Milan, Roma, Lazio, and Juventus this season, the side has taken just eight of a possible 30 points. However, three of those came in a 1-0 win at Roma in mid-September.

Roma has lost three of their last five away from home, but a 1-0 win at Torino last time out was their fourth away win with a clean sheet of the campaign. They’ve taken points away at Juventus, Inter, and AC Milan this season, and have won their last three matches in the league via clean sheet.

Roma could be without midfielder Georginio Wijnaldum and defender Chris Smalling, but the missing players for Atalanta are more worrying. Mario Pasalic came off injured against Bologna, as did Ademola Lookman, and both look likely to miss out for the second straight match. Without them, their attack becomes even more toothless.

Roma won the last meeting in Atalanta 4-1 last season, with only an own goal preventing a clean sheet. I expect the visitors to get another result, but this time without conceding a goal, as they strengthen their claim to Champions League football. Both the draw and Roma win are priced north of +200 and offer solid value, as does a Roma “draw no bet” wager. 

Atalanta vs AS Roma Over/Under analysis

Atalanta’s last 12 matches in all competitions have seen both teams finding the back of the net just four times, with only three of those matches featuring three or more goals. The Under has come through in three of the last five at home.

The Over has been a bit more consistent for Roma, but that’s due in large part to their ability to score goals. They’ve scored three goals themselves in three of their last five Serie A matches, but all three came at home. Away from home, they’ve been involved in a pair of consecutive one-goal fixtures, with five of their last eight seeing two or fewer scored. 

Given those numbers, it comes as little surprise that the Under is heavily favored heading into this contest, with a price in the range of -150 at most books. For those bold enough, the Under 1.5 at +210 is worth a look. While that bucks the historic trend, given the last four meetings at Gewiss Stadium have featured a combined 19 goals, I don’t believe that applies here given Roma’s defense and Atalanta’s goal issues. 

Atalanta vs AS Roma game info

Atalanta vs AS Roma key injuries

Atalanta: Mario Pasalic M (Doubtful), Ademola Lookman F (Doubtful), Matteo Ruggeri D (Doubtful), Hans Hateboer D (Out). 
AS Roma: Chris Smalling D (Doubtful), Georginio Wijnaldum M (Doubtful), Rick Karsdorp D (Out). 

Atalanta vs AS Roma weather

The weather in Bergamo will be wonderful on Monday, with temperatures in the mid-60s and sunshine fading into some cloudy skies at sunset. Temps will drop a bit throughout the match, but there is no chance of rain, and winds will be light.

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