Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Picks and Predictions: Bayern Wins Der Klassiker

Whenever Der Klassiker is on you always have to watch. But the Bundesliga’s biggest game — Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — has got even spicier.

Firstly, just one point separates the two teams after 25 games, with the Bavarians trailing Dortmund. Then secondly, the managerial change at Bayern Munich which has seen Julian Nagelsmann being replaced by Thomas Tuchel. 

This is going to be a hugely decisive game and the eyes of the world will be on the Allianz Arena on Saturday. Don’t miss our Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund picks and predictions.

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund best odds

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund picks and predictions

The name Thomas Tuchel doesn’t just play a big part on this fixture, it now plays a big part in our best bet with the arrival of the Champions League winning German coach, something that really adds another layer to this matchup and helps inform our betting for the game.

Firstly, if you look at the Bundesliga table you’ll see these two clubs have the best goalscoring records by a distance, combining for 127 goals. This has set the total goals market at Over 2.5 at -295 and the Under at +250.

If you look at recent results for both teams it’s understandable why you’d expect a high scoring game, but if you look at how Tuchel operated when he first arrived at Chelsea, I think you can find a very good case for backing Under 2.5 goals and a Bayern Munich win.

When he first arrived in West London he ensured that the team was strong defensively, something that helped him take Chelsea to Champions League glory that very season. His first game was a 0-0 home tie to Wolves, with his team ensuring they were tough to beat. The Over only landed once in his first 10 Premier League games with Chelsea.

If you look at his first 50 games with Chelsea across all competitions, they averaged just 0.48 goals against while scoring 2.53. In his final 50, they allowed 1.06 per game and scored 1.74 per game.

While he won’t follow the Chelsea path exactly, especially with the attacking talent on offer in Munich, I am expecting his team to focus on being tough to beat. With his team one point behind in the title race he knows he can’t lose this game.

Even if Bayern Munich were to draw I think Tuchel would back his team to not drop any more points domestically this season, something that would probably win them the Bundesliga.

Make no mistake, Tuchel will go into this match looking to avoid defeat and they won’t concede to Dortmund.

At +250 I think you’re getting incredible value on the Under 2.5 goals, and it’s something I’d recommend you betting. In addition, I would recommend betting Bayern Munich to win while also seeing Under 2.5 goals, or even grabbing one of the correct score options with Bayern winning 1-0 (+1400) or 2-0 (+1100) — both huge prices. 

My best bet: Bayern Munich to win and Under 2.5 goals (+550 at FanDuel)

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund side analysis

The arrival of Thomas Tuchel makes Saturday’s game even more exciting but it also makes it slightly harder to preview given that we don’t know exactly how he’ll get Bayern Munich set up. Given the talent at his disposal it makes sense to continue in a 4-2-3-1, a formation they’ve played with for the bulk of the season under Nagelsmann, although they’ll be tweaks. 

Long term absentees Lucas Hernandez and Manuel Neuer are still missing, and Jamal Musiala is also likely to miss the game too.

It’s expected that we’ll see Leon Goretzka return to the midfield and alongside Joshua Kimmich they’ll sit at the base of that midfield and look to stop the runs of Jude Bellingham, before playing it out to the forwards.

Exactly how Tuchel lines up his attacking players is a big question with Kingsley Coman, Serge Gnabry, Leroy Sane, Thomas Muller, and Sadio Mane all fighting for three spots. That said, we might see Eric Choupo-Moting moved aside with one of those playing further forward as a false nine — which wouldn’t be a shock given what we saw from him at Chelsea at times.

For Dortmund they’ll have a fairly clean bill of health, with Gregor Kobel likely to be able to start in goal.

Sebastien Haller will play as the frontman with Youssoufa Moukoko still out for a few more weeks, and Karim Adeyemi likely to miss out too. Dortmund will, as they do so often now, rely on Jude Bellingham to lead them to a victory.

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Over/Under analysis

We’ll keep this brief given that I’ve recommended backing Under 2.5 goals above but it’s worth saying that my pick is based purely on Thomas Tuchel’s history as a new arrival at Chelsea and the importance of this game given the title race. If you look at recent trends then they’d really push yo,u to back Over 2.5 goals.

Each of the previous six meetings between the clubs have hit the Over with 28 goals in those matches. The Over has landed in 64% of Dortmund’s Bundesliga games this season, although that drops to 53.8% when on the road. 

Interestingly the Over has also landed in 64% of Bayern Munich’s league games this season, although that rises to 66.7% when they play at the Allianz Arena. Despite this I really do feel like Tuchel’s time at Chelsea can help us find value, and at +250 you’re getting a big price on Under 2.5 goals.

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund game info

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund key injuries

Bayern Munich: Lucas Hernandez LB (Out), Manuel Neuer GK (Out), Leon Goretzka CM (Questionable), Eric Choupo-Moting STR (Questionable), Jamal Musiala FWR (Questionable).
Borussia Dortmund: Youssoufa Moukoko STR (Out), Gregor Kobel GK (Questionable), Karim Adeyemi STR (Questionable), Jamie Bynoe-Gittens LW (Questionable).

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund weather

Temperatures will be in the high 40s on Saturday with the potential for heavy rain.

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