Wednesday sees Bayern Munich face off against Manchester City for the second leg of this Champions League quarterfinal.
Erling Haaland and Man City tore Bayern Munich to shreds in the first leg but now they’re back in Germany, in front of their home crowd, and need to play at their very best to overturn a 3-0 deficit.
Do Bayern Munich have any hope or is Man City’s progression to the next round inevitable? Read our free betting picks below to find out.
Bayern Munich vs Man City best odds
Bayern Munich vs Man City picks and predictions
We rarely see teams progress in cup competitions when they go into the second leg down three goals. That happens even less in the Champions League and ever less against teams like Man City, who are so adept at controlling possession and dictating the tempo.
With that said, when it's Bayern Munich, you have to feel like there's a chance, no matter how slim.
While I'm not going to rule Bayern out altogether, I'm struggling to see how they'll progress considering the brilliance we saw from Man City in the first leg. They were incisive and clinical going forward, but they also had some exceptional moments on defense.
With all that said, my best bet focuses on another narrative, one that strays away from the actual result. I'm taking Bayern Munich Over 1.5 cards at -122. This is a great price and I also recommend putting a smaller stake on Over 2.5 cards at +235.
So why back Bayern to pick up 2+ cards when they've generally been very disciplined this season? Put simply, Bayern are used to being the better team, so much so that they rarely pick up bookings (14 in nine UCL matches and 44 in 28 Bundesliga matches). That's not the case here.
Firstly, let’s consider the opposition. This is a team who destroyed Bayern last week and we saw both of the German teams' fullbacks picking up bookings. Given that we may see City play more on the counter this week that would only increase the chances of cards.
On top of that, their entire Champions League hopes hang in the balance in this match. If they don't overturn this 3-0 lead, they're out, and should they get frustrated if things aren't going their way, cards could begin to pile up.
The final reason is French referee Clement Turpin. This is a guy who loves disciplining players and being the star of the show. He's been in charge of five games in European competition (UCL and Europa League) and has shown 19 cards, including one red.
With very little value elsewhere in the game, backing Bayern Munich to lose their heads is the best bet on the board.
My best bet: Bayern Munich Over 1.5 cards (-122 at Unibet)
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Bayern Munich vs Man City side analysis
We’re going to see Thomas Tuchel continue to play the formation that has served Bayern Munich so well in recent years, with 4-2-3-1 as the best way to showcase his wide array of attacking talent.
We saw Serge Gnabry lead the line in the first leg as a false nine and he’ll probably do the same again here, with Leroy Sane, Jamal Musiala, and Kingsley Coman around him.
In midfield, it’s essential Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka get the better of their opposite numbers and at the back, there’s a good chance we see Dayot Upamecano dropped after his shocking performance in the first leg. We might see Benjamin Pavard played centrally with Joao Cancelo in at rightback against his former team.
Man City will continue with the system that has seen them perform so well in recent weeks. It’s a hybrid 4-3-3 that sees John Stones pushed into midfield in possession and Ilkay Gundogan and Kevin De Bruyne pushed into more advanced positions while the Englishman sits beside Rodri.
Erling Haaland will get another start and City fans will hope he can be just as dangerous as he was in the first leg. His chemistry with Jack Grealish — who should start on the left — has been improving each week and they look lethal together.
Bayern Munich vs Man City Over/Under analysis
We know Bayern Munich need to score goals and we know that Man City have the players to destroy them on the counterattack, so it’s a safe assumption that we’ll see plenty of goals.
The sportsbooks feel the same with Over 2.5 goals priced at -177. At those odds, I’m not personally interested in having a bet but it’s a wager that I’d expect to land if you place it.
It’s worth remembering that Man City — at least domestically — haven’t been quite as high scoring away from home. Their EPL home matches have hit Over 2.5 goals 86.7% of the time but that drops to just 46.7% when they’re away from home.
Bayern Munich vs Man City game info
| Location: | Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany |
| Date: | Wednesday, April 19, 2023 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Bayern Munich vs Man City key injuries
Bayern Munich: Manuel Neuer GK (Out), Lucas Hernandez LB (Out), Eric Choupo-Moting STR (Questionable).
Man City: Phil Foden FWR (Out).
Bayern Munich vs Man City weather
We’re expecting a damp spring day in Munich with temperatures in the mid-40s and rain throughout the day and indeed the game itself.
