Bayern Munich welcomes RB Salzburg to the Allianz Arena today with the fate of both teams' Champions League futures in the balance.
The first leg finished 1-1 with Bayern struggling at times — will they be able to put on a better showing at home or could the Austrians pull off a huge surprise.?
Get our thoughts with our Champions League betting tips and predictions for Bayern Munich vs. RB Salzburg on Tuesday, March 8.
Bayern Munich vs RB Salzburg match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Bayern Munich vs RB Salzburg betting tips
Predictions made on 3/7/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Bayern Munich vs RB Salzburg game info
• Location: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany
• Date: Tuesday, March 8, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: fuboTV, Paramount+
Bayern Munich vs RB Salzburg betting preview
Weather
It’ll be 9:00 p.m. local time when this game kicks off in Munich, Germany. The weather, while being cold in the mid-30s, will be dry and not that windy.
Injuries
Bayern Munich: Alphonso Davies LB (Out), Leon Goretzka CM (Out), Corentin Tolisso CM (Out).
RB Salzburg: Noah Okafor CF (Out), Jerome Onguene CB (Out), Bryan Okoh CB (Out), Ousmane Diakite DM (Out), Sekou Koita CF (Out).
Bayern Munich vs RB Salzburg predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Side analysis
Bayern Munich face RB Salzburg on Tuesday in the second leg of their Champions League last 16 tie. The first leg, which finished 1-1, took place two weeks ago and it’s hard to think of a time where so much has passed in a two-week spell, that the first leg of this tie feels as if it was years ago.
The Champions League is back, albeit without Gazprom sponsorship, and we’re going to be treated to this clash between the German and Austrian champions. There are a number of similarities in these teams, both obviously lifted their domestic trophies last year but they’re also both set to win back-to-back.
The names of Bayern Munich and RB Salzburg will already be getting etched onto their trophies with the German side nine points clear of Dortmund and Salzburg 18 points ahead of Sturm Graz. That lead counts for nothing when the Austrian Bundesliga is decided by a smaller playoff league, but with that level of dominance, it seems unlikely they’ll let it slip.
When these two met previously it, finished 1-1 but that probably does a disservice to RB Salzburg who arguably looked the better team for the majority of the game. Chukwubuike Adamu scored in the 21st minute to give Salzburg the lead and then they sat back, playing on the counter and generally doing a great job of neutralizing the Bayern attack.
Bayern had double the shots, 22 to 11, 72% of the possession and double the passes but in truth, they didn’t look that much like scoring for most of the game. It was only in that final 10 minute period that you could notice Salzburg’s energy levels had just dropped a level, which ultimately led to Kingsley Coman getting that 90th-minute goal to level the scores.
Despite that close game, the oddsmakers are absolutely certain that Bayern Munich will win this game within 90 minutes, giving them odds of -600, an implied probability of 85.7%. To qualify for the next round, including any potential for extra time and penalties, the odds are -1200, equating to a 92.3% chance.
The likelihood is that Bayern Munich will win and if my life depended on it, I’d back Bayern, but despite that, the odds of -600 are well off in my opinion. Having watched that first leg, I can’t see any reason why the draw is +700 and the Salzburg win is +1400. It’s worth remembering that away goals don’t matter in this season’s Champions League so that Coman equalizer doesn’t give them an advantage.
We’ll see Bayern set up in a 4-2-3-1 and the majority of the lineup we know well, especially with Tolisso, Leon Goretzka and Alphonso Davies' long-term absences. The only real question marks are around who’ll play in those wide positions on either side of Thomas Muller and behind Robert Lewandowski. Kingsley Coman did well in the last game and it’s likely to be either him or Serge Gnabry, with Leroy Sane on the other flank.
RB Salzburg has a number of players out with injuries but the presence of Mohamed Camara in the midfield is a significant one. The Malian was superb in the first leg, constantly breaking up Bayern’s attacks and never stopping running. The 22-year old is surely going to end up at one of Europe’s elite clubs sooner rather than later and his role will be crucial if Salzburg are to get anything from this game.
The other man who’ll need to be at his best if Salzburg stands a chance is Karim Adeyami. The 20-year-old striker is a transfer target for Dortmund, who see him as a potential replacement for Erling Haaland. He’s not quite at that level but the young German has scored 15 goals in 18 league starts and three in seven Champions League games. He could be the difference-maker on Tuesday.
Be sensible when wagering on this game. Of course, Bayern should win but given the awful odds and RB Salzburg’s valiant performance in the first leg the +700 on offer for a draw after 90 minutes looks a lot more attractive, and worth a small stake.
Prediction: Draw (+700)
Over/Under analysis
Again, this is another bet that I’m going to be looking to take on the bookmakers. Over 2.5 goals is priced at -334, an absolutely wildly short price and one that I can’t justify betting on. The game only saw two goals in the first leg and Salzburg will again play this game smartly and look to defend well and pinch a goal against the German giants.
Bayern Munich is a brilliant team and they can often sweep teams away when they get on the front foot early but this is a knockout game and I can’t see either team going too gung-ho. Bayern’s past two games, against Frankfurt and Leverkusen, have only seen one and two goals, respectively.
The recent form doesn’t bode well for a high-scoring game and neither does their first leg meeting. Grab the +250 on Under 2.5 goals with both hands, it looks like bad pricing to me.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (+250)
Best bet
With Salzburg likely to be on the defensive, it makes sense to consider backing one of their players to get booked. The player that looks like the most likely is either Mohamed Camara (+110) or Nicolas Capaldo. There’s a good chance that both could find their name in the referee’s book but given the more attractive odds, we’ll back the 23-year-old Argentinian.
Capaldo has tended to be in and out of the starting lineup this season, with 13 starts in the league and just one in the Champions League but he puts himself about and relishes the tackle. He’s picked up six yellows in the league and crucially has already racked up three yellows in the Champions League despite starting in just one of his six appearances, which amounts to a booking every 53 minutes.
Capaldo is going to find himself in a midfield battle with Joshua Kimmich, Jamal Musiala, and having to keep tabs on Thomas Muller. Grab him at +162 because there’s a very good chance he could end up putting in a rash tackle or two on Bayern’s talented midfield.
Pick: Nicolas Capaldo to get booked (+162)
